■ China Economic Times reporter Liu Hui

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On March 31, 2024, it will be hosted by Renmin University of China, hosted by the Chongyang Institute of Finance of Renmin University of China, the Center for U.S. -China Cooperation at the University of Denver, the Russian Free Economic Association, the Geopolitical Economic Research Group at the University of Manitoba in Canada, and the India-China Economic Cooperation Think Tank Report Release and International Symposium jointly organized by the Association for the Promotion of Culture were held in Beijing. "Compound interest in a great country" was released at the meeting:Research report on China's High-Quality Development and 2035 Trends "(hereinafter referred to as the" Report ").

The report pointed out that under the long-term growth potential released by the Chinese-style modernization path, China will further promote the gradual realization of high-quality development, cultivate and develop new productive forces, continue to shine policy highlights, continue to create compound interest in major countries, and ultimately achieve achievements such as doubling income. From the perspective of think tanks, he put forward ten big ideas for "China 2035".

1. China's GDP is expected to surpass the United States around 2035 and become the world's largest economy

On the basis of China's economic growth faster than that of the United States, the continuous appreciation of the RMB and the increasing internationalization of the RMB, if China maintains GDP growth at around 5% per year in the next few years, it will maintain growth of at least more than 4% before 2035., it is expected to overtake the United States around 2035 and become the world's largest economy.

2. The disposable income of Chinese residents is expected to double in 2035 compared with 2023

In 2023, the per capita disposable income of residents nationwide will be 39218 yuan, an increase of 6.3% over the previous year. It is conservatively estimated that if the growth rate of around 6.5% can be maintained, residents 'income is expected to double compared with the current level around 2035. By then, the international purchasing power of the RMB will also It will be further improved, the urbanization process is expected to exceed 75%, and the urban-rural gap in residents' income will further narrow to less than 40%.

3. The proportion of middle-income groups is expected to expand from one-third to nearly one-half

As residents 'disposable income grows faster than GDP growth, the size and proportion of middle-income groups continue to expand. By 2035, the middle-income group will expand from 400 million to more than 700 million. The national income structure will reach an olive shape, moving towards common prosperity. The goal is moving further forward.

4. In 2035, each household will have one car on average, and one-third of them will be new energy vehicles.

It is expected that by 2035, new energy vehicles will become the mainstream of production and sales. China's domestic market share of new energy vehicles is expected to increase from about 25% to more than 50%. By then, the number of vehicles will exceed 150 million. On average, one in three households will drive a new energy vehicle, of which pure electric vehicles account for 100 million.

** 5. China will become the primary force in maintaining international peace and leading international stability and order
** China has always maintained strategic focus over the past few decades, and will continue to release its charm as a peaceful country in the future. Guided by concepts such as the Global Security Initiative, China will become the main force in maintaining international security and promoting peaceful development of the global economy.

6. The degree of residents 'participation in international exchanges has been significantly improved. The number of countries that grant mutual visa-free, unilateral visa-free, and visa-on-arrival to China is expected to expand from more than 80 to more than 120.

By 2035, the cost of overseas travel will further drop. Currently, only about 140 million people in China have passports, and another 1 billion people have not flown. As the degree of openness continues to deepen and the recognition and recognition of China by countries around the world continues to strengthen, the future international exchanges and outbound situations will change greatly. By 2035, more countries will open visas to China, and one-third of people will have the opportunity to travel abroad.

7. China will achieve its carbon peak early before 2030 and become the country with the highest annual emission reduction in 2035

China will solidly advance the carbon peak action before 2030, and carbon emissions will stabilize and decline after reaching the peak. According to the industrial green transformation layout in the next ten years, further zero-carbon targets will be given greater space and potential after the carbon peak is achieved. On the basis of the base effect and policy promotion, China will become the global emission reduction in 2035. In countries with the highest level, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption will exceed about 30%.

8. The number of Chinese companies shortlisted among the world's top 500 companies is expected to exceed at least 200, and the global competitiveness of Chinese companies has risen to a new level.

In 2019, the number of China's top 500 companies shortlisted surpassed that of the United States for the first time. In the future, the number of shortlisted companies will continue to grow year by year. In the process of cultivating new quality productivity, the gap between a large number of strategic emerging industries, advanced manufacturing companies and the top 500 companies continues to narrow, the employment appeal of foreign multinational companies, wholly foreign-owned companies and other companies will weaken, and the job market will become increasingly optimistic about China's high-quality enterprises.

9. A-shares grow steadily, and China will become one of the most mature capital markets in the world by 2035

After the Spring Festival in 2024, A-shares will get off to a good start. The China Securities Regulatory Commission will strengthen market supervision to ensure the stable and healthy development of the capital market. In the future, the capital market will become more active, and direct financing will have outstanding results in supporting the cultivation of new productive forces and serving the real economy. If you are optimistic about China's economy for a long time and invest stably in the capital market, you will gain benefits in ten years.

** 10. The Belt and Road Initiative has achieved breakthrough achievements in the past 20 years and has become the world's largest cooperation initiative, covering the largest number of countries, the largest population and the largest economy
** 2033 will mark the 20th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative. With its guidance on the path of common global prosperity, the Belt and Road Initiative will become the largest cooperation initiative benefiting all countries along the route. More and more countries and regions will join cooperation and joint construction to form a high-level three-dimensional interconnection network, which is expected to cover more than two-thirds of the world's countries.