Game on the Ice Sheet: Deep Dive into Trump's Second-Term Push for Control of Greenland

In late December 2025, the Trump administration's series of actions to push for control over Greenland became the most controversial focal point in the global diplomatic arena. From the high-profile appointment of a loyalist with no diplomatic experience as a special envoy to the public release of the hardline signal that the US "must possess Greenland," Trump escalated this "absurd idea" that began in 2019 into one of the core foreign policy agendas of his second term. **This seemingly illogical diplomatic game is by no means a spur-of-the-moment political stunt, but rather a precise layout by the United States based on Greenland's unique strategic location, abundant resource reserves, combined with the current geopolitical landscape and domestic development needs.** To understand the essence of this game, one must start from the fundamental attributes of Greenland, trace its historical context and power ownership, and then delve into the logic of the US layout, its action path, and the underlying drivers of the timing window.

I. Greenland: The "Strategic Hub" and "Resource Treasure Trove" of the Arctic Circle

To understand the US obsession with Greenland, one must first clarify its irreplaceable core value—it is both a key fulcrum in Arctic geopolitical games and a resource core in global technology and energy competition, all of which are built upon its unique geographical location and natural endowments.

1.1 Strategic Location: The "Chokepoint" of Arctic Shipping Routes and the "Natural Center" of the Northern Hemisphere

Geographically, Greenland is the world's largest island, located in the northeastern part of North America, between the Arctic Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean, with most of its territory within the Arctic Circle. It serves as the "chokepoint" connecting North America, Europe, and the Arctic region. As stated in *The Influence of Sea Power upon History*, "Whoever controls Greenland, controls the seas, and whoever rules the seas, rules the world." This once ice-bound land is now becoming the core of Arctic geopolitical games. With the intensification of global warming, the Arctic region is warming at a rate four times the global average, leading to accelerated melting of Arctic ice. The once-perennially frozen Arctic shipping routes are gradually becoming navigable. NASA satellite data shows that since 2003, Greenland has lost an average of 200 billion tons of glaciers annually. This melting ice not only contributes to a global sea-level rise of approximately 14 millimeters but also creates new maritime areas and shipping value—**once the Arctic routes are fully opened, they will significantly shorten the maritime transport distance between Europe and Asia, as well as North America, potentially increasing transport efficiency by over 30%, and are poised to become the new core of the global shipping system.** Greenland happens to hold the key nodes of the Arctic Northwest Passage (western waters) and the Central Passage (eastern waters). Controlling Greenland is equivalent to mastering the "control" of this emerging strategic route, and its value as a trade transit point and supply station will be fully highlighted.

More notably, Greenland is also one of the landmasses closest to the North Pole. Its northernmost point, Cape Morris Jesup, is at 83°37'39" N, less than 800 kilometers from the North Pole. From a geopolitical perspective, the Northern Hemisphere concentrates 67.35% of the world's land, 90% of its population, and the vast majority of powerful nations, including the five permanent members of the UN Security Council. As the "natural center" of Northern Hemisphere landmasses, Greenland's strategic radiation range can cover Asia, Europe, and North America. This unique location makes it a natural outpost for military defense and surveillance: the US has long established the Thule/Pituffik base on the island. This base is an important component of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), undertaking critical tasks such as missile warning, space surveillance, and satellite tracking and control, serving as the "Arctic barrier" for the US northern defense system. It is worth noting that Greenland is also a key link in the NATO anti-submarine warfare system's "Greenland-Iceland-UK Gap." During World War II, US forces relied on this location to combat German submarines, and during the Cold War, it was further developed into a forward position against the Soviet Union—the Thule Air Base, built in 1953, was precisely the midpoint on the straight-line route from Washington to Moscow, becoming a core node for monitoring Soviet missile launches. In his public statements, Trump has repeatedly emphasized that Russian and Chinese vessels are "everywhere" in the Arctic region, reflecting concerns about the potential loss of Greenland's strategic position and highlighting Greenland's core significance in containing Sino-Russian Arctic expansion.

1.2 Resource Endowment: An "Undeveloped Treasure Trove" of Globally Scarce Strategic Resources

In terms of resource endowment, Greenland is an "undeveloped treasure trove" of resources. 80% of its area is covered by an ice sheet averaging 1,500 meters thick, beneath which lie globally scarce strategic resources. Over 70 types of minerals have been discovered on the island. Of the 34 minerals on the EU's "Critical Raw Materials" list, 25 have been identified here. The reserves of rare earth elements are particularly noteworthy—the northeastern part of Greenland holds rare earth oxide reserves as high as 38.5 million tons. The Tanbreez rare earth mine alone has proven reserves of 28.2 million tons. With total rare earth oxide reserves in other parts of the world estimated at around 120 million tons, its strategic value is self-evident. Rare earth elements are core raw materials for manufacturing high-tech products such as chips, new energy vehicles, and advanced weaponry. China has long dominated over 80% of global rare earth processing capacity, while the US relies on imports for over 90% of its rare earth needs. For the US, which seeks to break its dependence on Chinese supply chains, Greenland's rare earth resources are undoubtedly a "key to breaking the deadlock."

Beyond rare earths, Greenland's energy and mineral reserves are equally astonishing: its coasts are rich in petroleum resources, with estimated reserves potentially as high as 52 billion barrels, including about 17.5 billion barrels of untapped oil and natural gas reserves of approximately 4.15 trillion cubic meters; 260,000 tons of uranium have been discovered in the south; the Kvanefjeld deposit contains both rare earth and uranium resources, with total resources estimated at about 1 billion tons; there is also a world-class zinc deposit with a mineralized belt extending over 2,500 kilometers, and the Mt Nalunaq gold mine, which commenced production in 2024. As Arctic ice melts, the difficulty of extracting these previously hard-to-reach resources is significantly reduced, making them a new focal point in global energy competition. Additionally, the waters surrounding Greenland are rich in fishery resources, with substantial stocks of cod, salmon, and other fish. Controlling the island could also meet US domestic demand for fishery products and develop fish processing and export industries. Simultaneously, Greenland holds an important position in the global meteorological monitoring network. Establishing observation stations there allows for precise collection of Arctic meteorological data, providing services for aviation, navigation, agriculture, and other sectors, ensuring the stable operation of the US economy and society.

It is worth noting that Greenland's population is only about 57,000. Its vast territory and sparse population make it difficult to form an independent industrial system and defense force. Its economic development is highly dependent on external support, which also provides opportunities for infiltration and influence by external powers. This attribute of "high strategic value and weak self-defense" is one of the core reasons why the US has listed it as a key target.

II. Greenland's Historical Context and Power Ownership: From Colonial Dependence to High Autonomy

The US push to control Greenland must also be understood in the context of its special historical trajectory and power ownership structure—Greenland is not a fully independent sovereign state but an autonomous territory of Denmark, possessing extensive self-governing powers but not yet fully independent. This "semi-independent" power structure has become a key entry point the US is attempting to exploit.

2.1 Historical Evolution: The Power Game from Colonial Dependence to High Autonomy

Greenland's history is closely tied to Danish colonial expansion, and the evolution of its sovereignty is full of contention. In 982 AD, the Norwegian Viking explorer Erik the Red, exiled from Iceland for murder, discovered ice-free areas and established Scandinavian settlements, naming it "Greenland" to attract immigrants. In the 13th century, Greenland was incorporated into the Norwegian colonial domain. In 1814, with the union of Norway and Denmark, control of Greenland transferred to Denmark. In 1953, a revision of the Danish constitution designated it as a county of Denmark, formally bringing it under sovereign jurisdiction. This colonial dependency lasted until the late 20th century. With the rise of global national independence movements, Greenland's demands for autonomy increased. In 1979, Greenland gained home rule. In 2009, Denmark and Greenland signed the Self-Government Act, granting Greenland extensive autonomy. Except for core powers such as foreign affairs, defense, and justice, which remain under Danish control, powers over the economy, resource development, and local governance belong to the Greenland Self-Government, which can achieve full independence through a referendum.

It is noteworthy that there have always been rifts in the relationship between Greenland and Denmark: Denmark occupied Greenland for 645 years, but Danish immigrants and their descendants number only about 5,000, constituting an absolute minority. 90% of the island's population are Inuit, with very low identification with Denmark in terms of public sentiment. Greenland's economy has long relied on annual Danish subsidies (approximately $350 million per year, accounting for over 20% of fiscal revenue), yet the inclination towards independence has continued to rise. In recent years, as major powers' competition for Arctic resources and shipping routes intensifies, Greenland has gradually become aware of its own strategic value and has begun actively seeking greater autonomy. In 2025, negotiations between the Greenland Self-Government and Denmark over "increasing autonomy in resource development" failed, further publicizing the contradictions and providing opportunities for external forces to infiltrate. Additionally, Greenland's Inuit also reside in the US state of Alaska. This ethnic connection has become an important point for the US to attempt to draw Greenland closer and distance it from Denmark.

2.2 Historical US-Greenland Interaction: A Century-Spanning Strategic Coveting and Layout

This "highly autonomous but not fully independent" power structure has created a dual governance model: "the Greenland Self-Government leads internal affairs, while Denmark leads foreign affairs and defense." For the US, this model provides an opportunity to "exploit loopholes": The Trump administration's appointment of a Special Envoy for Greenland publicly treats Greenland as an entity independent of Denmark, attempting to bypass Denmark and engage directly with the Greenland Self-Government, infiltrating influence through economic aid, resource cooperation, and other means, ultimately aiming to achieve control over Greenland. This move directly touches Denmark's sovereign bottom line and has become the core trigger for the US-Denmark diplomatic crisis.

Looking at historical interactions, US interest in Greenland did not begin with Trump but is a strategic continuation spanning a century. During the golden age of US territorial expansion, its gaze had already turned to this Arctic island: after purchasing Alaska in 1867, there were plans to acquire Greenland as well, which failed due to Danish opposition. In 1917, the US bought the US Virgin Islands from Denmark for $25 million, further solidifying the idea of acquiring territory through transactions. During World War II, after Germany occupied Denmark, the US used "protecting Danish territory" as a pretext to send troops to occupy Greenland, preventing it from falling into German hands. After WWII ended in 1945, Denmark demanded the return of Greenland. The US not only was reluctant to return it but also offered to purchase it for $100 million. Only after Denmark refused was the US forced to return it.

During the Cold War, Greenland's strategic value peaked. As the midpoint on the straight-line route between Washington and Moscow, it became a frontline in the US-Soviet nuclear confrontation: In 1953, the US built Thule Air Base in northern Greenland. In 1959, it implemented the "Camp Century" project, constructing an underground camp 240 kilometers east of Thule Base. Its hidden "Project Iceworm" even planned to store 600 nuclear warheads, later abandoned in 1967 due to engineering quality issues. The exposure of this secret plan triggered the Danish "Thulegate scandal." On January 21, 1968, a US military bomber carrying four B28 nuclear bombs crashed in the Polaris Bay, 12 kilometers from Thule Base, causing warhead rupture and radioactive contamination. Although no nuclear explosion occurred, one hydrogen bomb, serial number 78252, remains missing to this day, becoming a "nuclear hazard" for Greenland and severely affecting US-Denmark relations. After the Cold War, with the easing of Arctic geopolitical tensions, US enthusiasm for Greenland significantly waned, even to the point of selling some military facilities to the Danish government for $1. It was not until the early 21st century, with global warming and the resurgence of Arctic strategic value, that the US once again brought Greenland into its strategic vision, investing $40 million in 2017 to upgrade the missile warning radar at Thule Base, restarting its layout for this Arctic island.

III. The US Layout Path: From "Verbal Proposal" to "Systematic Advancement"

The Trump administration's layout for Greenland has undergone an upgrade from the "verbal probing" of 2019 to the "systematic advancement" of 2025. The action path has gradually become clear, shifting from diplomatic statements and internal discussions to specific personnel appointments and strategic pressure, demonstrating a strong determination to advance.

3.1 Phase One (2019): Verbal Probing, Gauging the Bottom Line

The first phase was the "verbal probing" of 2019. During his first term, Trump first publicly proposed the idea of "buying Greenland," a suggestion that caused a global uproar at the time. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen directly dismissed it as "absurd" and canceled Trump's state visit to Denmark. The Greenland Self-Government also clearly stated that Greenland was "not for sale." Although this probe ended in failure, it provided the Trump administration with crucial information: clarifying the basic attitudes of Denmark and Greenland and gauging the international community's reaction. Subsequently, the US government did not give up but moved related discussions internally, continuously assessing the feasibility of acquiring/controlling Greenland, laying the groundwork for escalated actions in the second term. The core goal of this phase was "probing the bottom line," not substantive advancement.

3.2 Phase Two (Early 2025): Strategic Escalation, Building Foundations

The second phase was the "strategic escalation" after returning to the White House in 2025. At the beginning of his second term, Trump listed the Greenland issue as a foreign policy priority, promoting the implementation of the layout through a series of specific actions: first, forming a core team and incorporating loyalists into the decision-making system to ensure the agenda could proceed smoothly; second, strengthening private communication with the Greenland Self-Government, attempting to drive a wedge between Denmark and Greenland through economic aid and resource cooperation; third, promoting military layout upgrades, planning to transfer jurisdiction of the Pituffik base to US Northern Command to strengthen military control over Greenland. The core goal of this phase was "building foundations," paving the way for subsequent substantive advancement.

3.3 Phase Three (December 2025): Public Breakthrough, Hardline Pressure

The third phase was the "public breakthrough" of December 2025. On December 21-22, the Trump administration made a major move: announcing the appointment of Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry as the "Special Envoy for Greenland." This appointment is highly symbolic: Landry is a "staunch ally" of Trump, having fully supported him in the 2024 US election, yet he has no diplomatic experience. This appointment clearly carries the dual attributes of "political reward" and "loyalist control." More notably, after accepting the appointment, Landry publicly stated that he was "honored to serve in a volunteer capacity to make Greenland part of the United States," directly upgrading the US goal from "cooperation" to "annexation." Trump later emphasized that Landry "understands the essential importance of Greenland to national security" and bluntly stated that the US "must have it." Previously, after returning to the White House in January 2025, Trump had repeatedly reinforced his claims on Greenland, even suggesting he would not rule out using military force to seize control, claiming that "the Greenland campaign would be the shortest war in the world" because its military strength was only equivalent to that of the New York Police Department.

Faced with the US's hardline stance, reactions from various parties were strong: Greenland's Prime Minister Múte Bourup Egede clearly stated that "Greenland belongs to Greenlanders, it is not for sale, and it will never be for sale," while also revealing that "dialogue with Trump has begun, seeking cooperation opportunities, with doors open in the mining sector," showing a balanced consideration between sovereignty and economic interests. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen not only dismissed the US proposal as "absurd" but also issued a joint statement with Egede, emphasizing that "you cannot annex other countries... Greenland belongs to the Greenlandic people, we decide our own future," even modifying the flag design to demonstrate sovereignty. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also voiced support, stating that "territorial integrity and sovereignty are fundamental principles of international law." Norway and other Nordic countries also clearly supported Denmark's position. Notably, the US actions have also triggered a shift in Denmark's domestic security perception. The Danish Defense Intelligence Service's 2025 report for the first time listed the US as a potential security threat, pointing out that the shift in US strategic focus and pressure on allies are increasing uncertainty in Danish national security.

From the US layout path, its strategy exhibits a clear "Trump style": abandoning the circuitousness and restraint of traditional diplomacy, adopting a method of "high-profile pressure + loyalist leadership + media hype," attempting to break the deadlock with "unconventional means." The advantage of this strategy is its ability to quickly attract global attention and exert maximum pressure on Denmark and Greenland. However, the disadvantage is equally evident: it completely undermines US trust with its allies