The Iranian currency, the rial, has plummeted, and the president admitted there is no money for salary increases. What happened? How can this be interpreted from an economic perspective?

Iran has an economic system characterized by an extreme structure, dominated by an Islamic-style state-planned market economy where internal economic efficiency is severely suppressed. It also features a weak government under the supervision of the Faqih, accompanied by a nominal dual political system, with even its economic control amounting to only a fraction of a percent.

Beneath the structural economic contradictions concealed for years under the guise of "resistance" lie ever-expanding national debt, a continuously depreciating currency, and the steady depletion of mineral resource assets, coupled with a secular society that is increasingly fragmented. Perhaps this time, we should not focus on Mossad's role in Iran's current economic crisis, nor should we merely blame Western sanctions for excluding what should have been one of the world's wealthiest nations from the global financial markets.

We should pay more attention to what Iranian residents have experienced over the years under the immense wealth distribution gap in Iran.

I. The Current Situation of the Iran Moon Crisis

在官方汇率上，我们看到美元/伊朗里亚尔汇率一直稳定在42万Irr：1USD的基础上，然而在黑市上，The exchange rate of the Rial against the US dollar has long fallen below the threshold of 10,000 to 1, representing a depreciation of over % compared to the same period last year and marking the most severe decline in a decade. This outcome has occurred despite Iran's currency reform efforts this year!

实际上，我们从伊朗官方数据上也能看出来，伊朗的货币一定很惨厉，In Iran, the inflation rate in March of this year soared to 47.1%, with food prices surging by 61.6% year-on-year and the cost of medical supplies rising by 25.8%.！

For the more than half of the Iranian population with a daily income of less than one dollar, their daily staple bread is rapidly becoming a "luxury." Moreover, due to supply and demand price issues caused by currency depreciation, even the capital city of Tehran has frequently experienced daily two-hour power outages.。

这种极端恶劣的经济问题迅速转变为了社会性经济危机，Vendors in Tehran's Grand Bazaar initiated a strike first, followed by student groups joining the protests. Subsequently, conflicts erupted in dozens of cities, including Mashhad and Kermanshah.，然后，伊斯兰革命卫队的防暴部队迅速介入，并用催泪瓦斯等武器强行驱散人群，这**导致抗议活动转向更深层次发展！

The demands of the Iranian people have shifted from economic relief to deeper political aspirations.。在德黑兰哈杰・纳西尔大学的学生们高举标语，高喊 “学生，成为你们人民的声音”、“反对头巾，反对镇压”、“自由与平等” 等口号，Directly pointing to the Iranian authorities' decades-long suppression of personal and political freedoms.。

而在凯什姆岛和赞詹，抗议者更是喊出 “赛义德・阿里（哈梅内伊）今年将被推翻”、“愿礼萨.沙阿的灵魂幸福” 等Radical slogans，Some people have also called for the return of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled Iranian Crown Prince in the United States.，甚至抗议现政权支持哈马斯、黎巴嫩真主党的政策，高喊 Not to Gaza, not to Lebanon, I am willing to give my life for Iran.。

From my perspective, this crisis is not a short-term fluctuation. The Iranian government no longer has the economic capacity to maintain stability. If the Islamic privileged class fails to distribute benefits to society, even without considering the pressure of external sanctions, the accumulated historical structural issues and policy missteps alone could trigger a further escalation of the crisis.

II. External Strangulation: Sanctions and Geopolitical Conflicts

Since the Islamic Revolution, the United States has consistently imposed sanctions on Iran, which has prevented its dependent economy from fully integrating into the global trade and economic system.

尤其是，2018 年特朗普政府单方面退出Iran nuclear deal，切断伊朗银行与 System的连接，并冻结其海外资产，其中，石油出口这个占伊朗财政收入 60% 以上的 “经济引擎” 首当其冲。

制裁前，伊朗原油日均产量稳定在 400 万桶以上，2018 年后骤降至不足 300 万桶 / 日，Driven by increased demand in the Eastern market, its exports rebounded to between 1 million and 1.5 million barrels per year, yet still failed to recover to pre-sanction levels.。

而石油收入锐减直接导致外汇储备枯竭，Especially in Iran, where a significant percentage of food and medicine relies on imports, the shortage of foreign exchange and the depreciation of the rial have created a "vicious cycle."：汇率每跌 10%，进口商品价格就涨 12%，最终将通胀推向 43.3% 的高位，It also makes Iran increasingly reliant on the "smuggling economy within the resistance economy," with most of this revenue ending up in the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, leading to a sharp decline in government income!

此外，Geopolitical conflicts throughout the year have further exacerbated Iran's economic crisis.。6 月，伊朗与以色列爆发为期 12 天的战争，关键基础设施遭破坏，直接经济损失超数十亿美元。但战事刚停，美国便追加制裁，将伊朗航运、能源企业列入 “黑名单”。

In May, the United Nations activated the "snapback sanctions mechanism," reinstating restrictions on Iran's weapons transactions and ballistic missile programs, thereby completely blocking its path to alleviating economic pressure through international cooperation.。这种外部压力层层加码，让伊朗陷入 **“制裁 - 外汇短缺 - 贬值 - 通胀” 的恶性循环，难以挣脱。

III. Historical Accumulated Malpractices and Policy Missteps: The Structural Trap Has Already Formed

Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran's economy has consistently failed to break free from its "oil dependency." Unfortunately, on top of this, Iran has further incorporated the core principles of Khomeini and Khamenei's economic theories.

我们看到，伊朗在巴列维王朝时期曾经通过Complete Westernization改革试图成为世界强国，However, excessive reliance on petrodollars to drive industrialization neglects agriculture and manufacturing.，而霍梅尼时代的 “伊斯兰化” 政策，把经济问题归结于农民离开土地**，因此又将大量企业收归国有，形成僵化的计划经济体制，私营企业发展空间被挤压，创新活力丧失**。而近些年，After coming to power, Khamenei implemented a "resistance economy policy" aimed at reducing external dependence.，却仍未改变石油占 GDP 16%、占财政收入 60% 的畸形结构。

Meanwhile, Iran's path to industrial upgrading has been locked in place. Through market competition, it has found that it neither has an international market nor can achieve technological superiority. As a result, it frequently supports proxy forces. However, last year, this network suffered a severe blow, and Iran lost its control over a highly valuable market share.！

而其内需则已经是崩溃局面，According to data from the Iranian National Statistics Center, among men aged - years, % are unemployed and not seeking employment.，伊朗社会福利部更是披露，% of the population suffers from varying degrees of malnutrition, while the poverty rate has risen to %-%, nearly doubling compared to the year .。

On this basis, state-owned enterprises in Iran are inefficient but monopolize resources through policy preferences, while private enterprises want to excel but lack both funds and resources.。于是，为了生存，伊朗还形成了全球闻名的地下钱庄市场，Under the dual-track foreign exchange system, there is a significant gap between Iran's official exchange rate and the black market rate, creating arbitrage opportunities that fuel speculation. The central bank's efforts to stabilize the exchange rate by selling foreign reserves have repeatedly failed, rendering monetary tools ineffective.。

面对危机，伊朗政府的应对不仅未能止血，反而更加速了民众的信心崩塌。To address the fiscal deficit, the Central Bank of Iran has long relied on "printing money to get by."”：2020 年广义货币供应量同比涨幅达 31.3%，2022 年法尔津出任央行行长时，里亚尔汇率尚为 43 万里亚尔 / 美元，至 2025 年 12 月，黑市汇率已贬值超 3 倍。The adverse consequences of excessive currency issuance are ultimately borne by the general public.，2025 年初上调的最低工资，涨幅远低于 43.3% 的通胀率，实际购买力缩水近半，但伊斯兰革命卫队等的美元资产对内则大幅升值！

更混乱的是改革政策的反复无常。At the end of the year, the government proposed to change the currency name to "Toman" and remove four zeros, attempting to conceal devaluation through a "digital adjustment."，2025 年 8 月又突然变卦，保留 “里亚尔” 名称，仅删除面值零， 这种缺乏配套措施的 “表面改革”，It signaled to the market that "the monetary system is out of control," prompting the public to rush to buy dollars and gold as safe havens, further exacerbating the collapse of the rial.

2025 年 12 月，伊朗最为世界级产油国，Introducing the "pay-as-you-go" third-tier gasoline pricing mechanism, marking the first major adjustment to oil prices in years.，但此举再次推高了伊朗的物流成本，让本就严峻的通胀变成了更深的滞胀，但是，伊朗的石油基本控制在几大家族和伊斯兰革命卫队手中。