The scale of new grid-connected energy storage projects in China in 2024 is expected to reach 34.5GW/85.4GWh in the benchmark scenario, or even 43.4GW/107.1GWh in the optimistic scenario.

A research report released by the recently held "Energy Storage Industry 2023 Review and 2024 Outlook" conference shows that the scale of new grid-connected projects in China's energy storage in 2023 will reach 22.8GW/49.1GWh. Compared with capacity scale, it is 7.8GW/16.3GWh in 2022. Nearly three times the new installed capacity. 2022-2023 In 2009, the domestic market achieved rapid growth of over 200% for two consecutive years. At the same time, the scale of new grid-connected projects in 2023 will also exceed the total installed capacity of China's energy storage market in the past 10 years.

Looking forward to 2024, China's energy storage industry will continue to develop rapidly under the continuous promotion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" energy storage development plans, demonstration projects, new energy allocation and storage policies and market mechanism reforms in various places. In 2024, the scale of new grid-connected energy storage projects in China is expected to reach 34.5GW/85.4GWh in the benchmark scenario and even 43.4GW/107.1GWh in the optimistic scenario, corresponding to growth rates of 74% and 118% respectively.

Market vitality is surging

2023 is a dynamic year in the history of China's energy storage development. The driving force for development is inseparable from the improvement of policies-from the national to local governments, China has introduced more than 100 power market policies and market mechanisms related to energy storage in 2023, including special energy storage policies, power market transactions, auxiliary service markets, Industrial development planning, financial support and subsidies, technical standards, new energy allocation and storage, etc. As of the end of 2023, 24 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities have announced energy storage development goals, and will achieve a cumulative installed capacity of 78.3GW of energy storage by 2025.

A total of 29 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China have achieved grid connection of new energy storage projects, and a total of 13 regions with a new grid connection scale exceeding 1GWh, of which Xinjiang is the largest regional market 。全国共有272个业主或开发商实现了储能项目并网，国家电投连续第二年成为国内最大的储能开发商，新增并网规模超过1GWh的12家开发商全部为央国企能源开发商。175家储能企业集体发力，为新增并网项目提供储能系统，供货规模排名前十位的企业合计占57%的市场份额。

Rapidly growing demand has also attracted 277 energy storage system suppliers and 379 EPC units to enter the market, and the number of participants has more than doubled compared with 2022. Electricity energy markets and auxiliary service markets in nearly 30 regions have opened up market access for energy storage. In Shandong, Ningxia, Anhui and other places, independent energy storage has begun to form a profit model that combines the electricity energy market + the auxiliary service market; with the high electricity price difference, industrial and commercial user-side energy storage in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta has achieved higher profitability; provinces with large new energy installed capacity such as the northwest have begun to formulate relevant auxiliary service compensation clauses for network-type energy storage.

Capital markets are also extremely active. Wang Guanqing, equity product manager of Harvest Wealth Management, said that there will be about 400 financing incidents in the primary energy storage market in 2023, of which about 80 incidents occurred in the materials field, which is the most popular field, followed by energy storage systems, sodium electricity and other fields.

Facing new tests and new challenges

"Although the energy storage industry is in a stage of rapid development, we must admit that there is no way to give users a completely satisfied and assured explanation for safety, life and efficiency." Huang Zhiguo, deputy director of the Comprehensive Energy Dual Carbon Center of CRRC Zhuzhou Electric Locomotive Research Institute, pointed out that various battery cell manufacturers are constantly introducing new products for long-term, long-life, and high-temperature resistance. At the same time, in the face of complex energy storage products, how to choose a good technical route to maximize and utilize the maximum value is becoming more difficult for system integrators and users.

Wang Tao, executive director of the New Energy and Energy Storage Research Institute of China Power Construction New Energy Group, further pointed out that at present, new energy storage technology routes are blooming, relevant technical standards and safety regulations are not yet perfect, and the price of energy storage products has a downward trend. There are still concerns about product quality.

At present,"new energy + energy storage" is the mainstream application model in the industry, but in fact the operating conditions are not ideal. Ma Xiaoguang, deputy secretary-general of the Electric Transportation and Energy Storage Branch of China Electricity Council, pointed out that from the survey results, there is an unreasonable problem in the allocation ratio of energy storage. In order to reduce electricity costs, only the development of energy storage on the user side is relatively guided by the direction of marketization. Energy storage on the power supply side and grid side also requires overall planning by joint management departments and power grid companies, combined with local characteristics and actual conditions of the power grid, and based on the perspective of power system, reasonable planning and design.

"In some places, policies change every year." Wang Tao admitted that the industry lacks a guidance mechanism to feedback the positioning and value of new energy storage functions. Investors still have many concerns about the uncertainty and instability of policies, and how to implement energy storage benefits.

Ma Xiaoguang further pointed out that the operation, maintenance and safety management of energy storage power stations are also weak links and urgently need to attract the attention of the industry, especially new energy distribution and storage. Batteries have been left unused for a year or two, and the vigilance period has been long, posing potential safety hazards. Many power station operation and maintenance personnel are operated part-time by new energy station personnel. However, energy storage requires not only electrical professional knowledge, but also knowledge and skills such as chemistry and fire protection. This places higher requirements on employees, imposes training on operation and maintenance managers to improve their skills.

Independent energy storage has become the main force of new installed capacity

Profitability can be said to be the key to the long-term development of the energy storage industry.

"There are some economic risks caused by unforeseen operations or control methods. Risk control must be focused on during the project investment process." Sun Ke, deputy director of the China Nuclear Exchange Industry Collaboration Center, pointed out that in the initial investment stage of the project, more attention should be paid to project economy and equipment utilization, and the optimization of installed capacity is pursued, rather than the larger the energy storage project, the better. Existing regulatory policies have uncertainties in benefits. On the one hand, it is hoped that relevant institutions can make practitioners quantifiable and predictable in terms of scheduling and operation strategies; on the other hand, enterprises must conduct project research and judgment on one province, one policy, one policy, one policy at a time.

与此同时， As an independent entity, independent energy storage directly signs grid-connected dispatching agreements with the power dispatching agency, which is dispatched and managed by the power dispatching agency. It earns income through various methods such as capacity leasing, participation in auxiliary services and power energy market transactions, and capacity compensation, with profit potential. In the future, it has become the main force in the growth of energy storage installed capacity. 。

"On the one hand, independent energy storage is easier to accept power grid dispatch, which helps energy storage participate more in supporting the power grid and providing various services to the power grid; on the other hand, independent energy storage measurement and value accounting are relatively simple, simplifying the operation and settlement mechanism of energy storage." Tan Zhenlong, senior director of China's Three Gorges New Energy Strategic Development Department, pointed out that the large-scale and centralized construction of independent energy storage power stations can give full play to the safety support of energy storage for the power system and the role of promoting new energy consumption.

At present, Shandong, Sichuan, Henan, Jiangsu and other places have issued policies to clarify that new energy storage projects in the form of allocation and construction can be converted into independent energy storage projects when they meet the same technical conditions and safety standards through technical transformation. The market is also exploring to further expand the profit channels of independent energy storage power stations.

Tan Zhenlong pointed out that the investment income from independent energy storage is also guided and driven by policies. The degree of continuous improvement of policies is an important factor affecting the income of independent energy storage power stations. He hopes that local governments will continue to promote the continuous improvement of independent energy storage policies, continue to establish market mechanisms, and promote Energy storage is market-oriented and the value of energy storage is realized.

original title:The scale of new grid-connected energy storage this year is expected to exceed 100GWh