2024.0409

Number of words in this article:1881, the reading time was about 3 minutes

introduction：此次国会选举是对上台已近2年的尹锡悦政府的一次“中期考核”，将决定今后4年国会主导权归属，甚至可能影响现任总统尹锡悦还剩3年的任期。

** Author| ** First Finance and Economics Pan Yinru

South Korea's 22nd National Assembly election will be held on April 10. Starting from March 28, various political parties will launch campaign canvassing. At the same time, according to Xinhua Agency, in the "pre-voting" held in advance from April 5 to 6, the South Korean Central Electoral Management Commission reported that the "pre-voting" rate reached a record high of 31.28%. At present, South Korea's ruling party, namely the National Power Party, where President Yoon Seok Yoon belongs, and the largest opposition party, the Common Democratic Party, both claim that the "pre-voting" rate in this congressional election is the highest in history. Zhan Debin, director of the Center for Korean Peninsula Studies at Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, told First Finance and Economics that this congressional election can be regarded as a "mid-term assessment" of the Yin Xiyue government, which has been in power for nearly two years. It will determine the dominance of the Congress in the next four years. It may even affect the current President Yin Xiyue's three-year term, and it is a high probability that the pattern of "facing small and big" will continue to maintain.

biggest attraction

** **

In the general election of the National Assembly, South Korean political groups will jointly compete for the allocation of 300 seats in the new parliament, including 254 constituency seats and 46 proportional representation seats. At present, the largest opposition party, the Common Democratic Party, has 142 seats, accounting for 47.81%; the ruling National Power Party has 101 seats, accounting for 34.01%, so the current South Korean Congress presents a situation of "small and big." Zhan Debin told China Finance and Economics that the ideal goal for both the ruling and opposition parties is to control the direction of Congress by a majority; the second is to ensure the position of the largest party. "however, for the ruling National Power Party, it is somewhat difficult to achieve these two goals at present." Zhan Debin analyzed that in view of the serious antagonism and localism of South Korean political parties in recent years, the performance of the National Power Party and the Common Democratic Party "will not be too bad." that is, they can stick to the basic plate of about 100 seats, and "on this basis, we have to wait and see the impact of other variables on the ownership of the remaining 100 seats." According to the latest poll results released by South Korean polling agency Realmeter on April 1, the current support rate of the National Power Party is 35.4%, down 1.7 percentage points from the last survey, and the common democratic party is 43.1%, up 0.3 percentage points from the last survey. Gallup, another pollster, conducted a survey from March 26 to 28, showing that the support rate of the National Power Party was 37% and that of the Common Democratic Party was 29%. Zhan Debin believes that Yin Xiyue's government and the ruling National Power Party are one and two sides, but according to the opinion polls since Yin Xiyue came to power, the poor rating of Yin Xiyue's government has basically been maintained at about 60%, and the positive rate is only about 35%. "this means that in the competition for the remaining 100 seats, it is disadvantageous to the ruling party." Moreover, Zhan Debin also believes that if magnified into the pattern of the government and the opposition, the ruling party is in a more disadvantageous position. "after all, there are still some small parties in the opposition factions. Although they cannot become the third largest party, they may also have some seats, thus diverting the votes of the ruling party and benefiting the opposition forces." He analyzed.

What risk points

** **

Congressional elections are different from presidential elections. Zhan Debin told China Finance and Economics, "of the 254 constituencies involved in re-election, in fact, each small constituency is a risk point. According to current opinion polls conducted by South Korean media, the vote gap between the first and second largest party in 50 small constituencies is about 3%, which is very close, making it difficult to predict before the election. " "therefore, for any candidate, past controversial remarks or events exposed by the media will cause fluctuations in the support ratings of himself and the party behind him," he said. As the voting time approaches, the opinions of all parties will actually become more and more intense, and it is easy to say the wrong words and lead to the continuous fermentation of negative effects. " In Zhan Debin's view, the 3% difference is likely to be the middle voters who are still hesitant, so the struggle for 50 small constituencies will continue until the last minute. At present, which events are easy to become risk points? Zhan Debin said that for example, Yin Xiyue's own words and deeds and the dynamics of the ruling party are likely to affect the trend of the election. He cited the resignation of the South Korean ambassador to Australia after just 25 days in office and the dismissal of Yoon Xiyue's aides, which dragged down the ruling party's election. The opposition Common Democratic Party is also in trouble. A few days ago, five lawyers defending Li Zaiming, the leader of the common democratic party involved in the corruption case of a real estate development project, were promoted as party candidates by the party and were questioned as "paying legal fees" for Li Zaiming. The game between the government and the medical profession, which has attracted much attention from the South Korean public, will also affect the trend of the election. Zhan Debin said that the original intention of Yoon Xiyue's government to push for health care reform was to ease the problem that it was difficult for South Koreans to see a doctor, but the protests in the medical community had been going on for nearly two months, which not only exceeded the government's expectations, but also aggravated the difficulty of seeing a doctor in reality. Yin Xiyue's government has shown an unyielding tough posture, and the dialogue with doctors' groups has always given the public an intuitive sense of the lack of flexibility in government policies. Changes in public mood and attitude, and the vows of doctors' groups to vote to 'try' the current regime are all detrimental to the election of the ruling party. " Zhan Debin said. The latest opinion polls show that anxiety among South Koreans has increased as a result of the long-term medical gap caused by the massive resignation of doctors. In addition, inflation is also an issue of concern to South Korean society. South Korea's consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.1% in February from a year earlier, including 20.9% for agricultural products and 41.2% for fresh fruit, according to the Korea Bureau of Statistics. In addition, South Korea's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 1.4% year-on-year in 2023. For the first time in 25 years, South Korea's economic growth was lower than that of Japan. The latest survey released by pollster Realmeter on the 8th shows that President Yin Xiyue has a positive rating of 37.3 percent and a poor rating of 59.5 percent. **