近日，日本帝国数据银行和东京商工调查所分别发布了2023财年日本企业破产情况统计数据。两家机构的统计数据显示， The number of bankruptcies of Japanese companies in fiscal year 2023 increased by more than 30% compared with the previous year, representing two consecutive years of growth and reaching the highest level in nine years.

In terms of specific data, Imperial Data Bank counted 8881 bankruptcy cases of Japanese companies in the 2023 fiscal year, a year-on-year increase of 30.6%; the Tokyo Chamber of Commerce and Industry counted 9053 bankruptcy cases, a year-on-year increase of 31.6%. In terms of total liabilities of bankrupt companies, Imperial Data Bank statistics showed a year-on-year increase of 4.3% to 2.4344 trillion yen; Tokyo Chamber of Commerce and Industry statistics showed a year-on-year increase of 6.0% to 2.4630 trillion yen.

In terms of industry classification, the number of bankruptcies in all seven industries calculated by Imperial Data Bank and the number of bankruptcies in all 10 industries calculated by the Tokyo Chamber of Commerce and Industry have increased for two consecutive years. According to statistics from Imperial Data Bank, the number of bankruptcies in the retail industry increased by 42% year-on-year to 1874 cases; the construction industry increased by 35% year-on-year to 1749 cases; the service industry increased by 28% year-on-year to 2187 cases. The number of bankruptcies is the highest in the entire industry, and the last time the number of bankruptcies in the service industry exceeded 2000 was in 2011.

At a business supermarket in Tokyo, staff are sorting out goods. Photo by our reporter Chen Yitong

Among the retail industry, the most noteworthy thing is the bankruptcy of "restaurants". 据帝国数据银行统计，2023财年饮食店破产件数达802件，同比增长56%，创下2000年以来最高水平。东京商工调查所的数据则为930件，同比增长57%。其中包括日料店、中餐馆、拉面店、烤肉店在内的“专门料理店”的破产数量最多，其次为西餐厅和酒馆。 The number of bankruptcies in ramen shops, takeout catering services and takeout delivery catering services has set a historical record.

Among them, the closure of the bakery triggered heated discussions among Japanese public opinion. According to Japanese media reports, during the COVID-19 epidemic, the Japanese government adopted certain restrictions on dining out, which led to a significant increase in demand for bread takeout and enabled bakeries to maintain their livelihood. However, after the epidemic, the survival of bakeries was challenged. This can also be regarded as a microcosm of the deterioration of the bankruptcy situation of Japanese companies after the epidemic.

Analysts believe that the main reasons for the deterioration of the bankruptcy situation of Japanese bakeries are poor sales, insufficient manpower, and rising costs. 在俄乌冲突的背景下，小麦价格、原油价格、人工费用均大幅上涨，推升了面包的生产成本。且面包保质期短，损耗率极高，尤其是在日本，点心面包、蔬菜面包、咖喱面包等更受欢迎，但此类面包的制作工艺复杂，人工成本高，无法通过冷冻长期保存，因而浪费现象十分普遍。

At the same time, against the background of rising wheat prices, the popularity of rice has increased, consumers have replaced bread with rice food, and bakeries are facing increasingly fierce competition. In this context, bakery operators are worried about customer loss and cannot smoothly pass on costs to the sales price. All of the above factors have led to a "wave of closures" of bakeries.

A fruit shop in Chaoya, Tokyo, Japan. Photo by Zhang Xiaoyu (Xinhua Agency)

It can be said that poor sales, rising costs, insufficient manpower, and difficulty in passing on prices have become "common problems" for Japanese bankrupt companies represented by bakeries. 统计结果显示，2023财年由于销售不畅导致的企业破产件数约7000件，占全部的80%。而“人手不足破产”则主要波及建筑业、运输业、通信业，达313件。

Another major "critical hit" after the epidemic is that the interest-free and unsecured "zero-zero loan" provided by the Japanese government during the COVID-19 epidemic is about to expire in June. Data shows that the number of corporate bankruptcies due to inability to repay loans is nearly 700, a record high.

However, at the financial policy meeting in March this year, the Bank of Japan's decision to withdraw from negative interest rates undoubtedly put greater pressure on corporate operations. The rise in loan interest rates may deal a "devastating blow" to small and medium-sized enterprises carrying excess debt. Although Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that he would avoid a sharp rise in interest rates, in the short-term economic observation of companies in March, most companies predicted that borrowing rates would increase in three months later.

Some analysts believe that rising interest rates have caused anxiety among small and medium-sized enterprises, and their willingness to invest in the future has declined. 而日本内阁府的3月景气观察中，也出现了有关中小企业资金周转恶化导致经济下行的担忧。

Bank of Japan headquarters. Photo by Zhang Xiaoyu (Xinhua Agency)

An important factor supporting the Bank of Japan's decision to withdraw from negative interest rates is the results of this year's spring labor negotiations. The Bank of Japan believes that this year's spring labor negotiations have achieved the expected results, and the wage growth level is far higher than last year. However, according to statistics from the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan on April 8, in February 2024, Japan's per capita real wage decreased by 1.3% compared with the same period last year. The decline has increased by 0.2% month-on-month. It has been declining for 23 consecutive months. The situation that wage increases cannot keep up with price increases has not improved. This has further reduced people's willingness to consume and stifled the idea of many companies shifting costs to prices.

In addition to the shortage of manpower at the employee level, the "lack of successors" of business operators has also become an important factor in bankruptcy. 据统计，2023财年因企业负责人生病或死亡而导致企业破产的案例为285件，达2000年以来最高水平，日本政府2022年制定的“继承者帮扶网络”计划何时见效仍未可知。

The Tokyo Chamber of Commerce and Industry is concerned that against the background of rising prices and labor costs, corporate earnings are further deteriorating, and corporate bankruptcy may further intensify after summer. Imperial Data Bank analysis believes that against the background of the imminent expiration of "zero zero loans" and the central bank raising interest rates, the number of bankruptcies of Japanese companies may exceed 10,000 in 2024.