24 August Briefing Read full brief
Erdoğan is turning every opening into a claim on more time
A proposed one-round presidential election, a conditional PKK pardon and Ankara’s request for an Interpol notice against Benjamin Netanyahu all widened Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s room to act. Peace at home and leverage abroad could be genuine gains, but each is being organised around the presidency’s need to outlast a fragmented opposition.
Frequently Asked
5What election change is Erdoğan promoting?
Erdoğan and MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli are promoting replacing Turkey's two-round presidential vote with a single-round plurality contest, which could return Erdoğan with less than half the vote.
What does Turkey's new PKK law do?
Turkey signed a law offering conditional pardons and sentence relief to thousands of PKK members after Abdullah Öcalan's call for disarmament and the group's declared dissolution.
Why are Kurdish activists wary of the peace process?
Kurdish activists are wary because Öcalan and Selahattin Demirtaş remain imprisoned, and the law addresses disarmament more clearly than language rights, local democracy, or political representation.
What is the potential value of Turkey's shale oil find?
Officials put the potential resource value at $540 billion and the possible annual contribution at $8 billion, though these are preliminary estimates, not revenue.
What is the Mecca defence pact?
Turkey signed a defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, which IISS calls a formal sign of regional realignment after the Iran war, though analysts caution military support will be specific.