Background: The US-Israeli war against Iran has entered its third month with no end in sight, characterized by an indefinite impasse, no good deal possible, Washington losing the initiative, Israel's complicating role, and Iran's asymmetric advantage in defining victory as regime survival. Today: Hamidreza Azizi, an Iran expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, analyzes the current state of conflict, noting a shift in Iranian warfare tactics and a diplomatic dilemma for both sides. Iran is using the threat of blocking the Strait of Hormuz to pressure the US and seek diplomatic recognition, aiming for a deal that lifts sanctions and guarantees no further attacks. Iran's network of allied militias remains active despite recent wars, and Russia and China provide background support, indicating a new type of strategic relationship. Iran proposed a side deal to reopen the strait in exchange for lifting the blockade, but the US has not decided. President Trump vacillates between military strikes and maintaining maximum pressure. Iran's economy is under severe strain from sanctions and inflation, but the regime remains defiant, relying on a patronage system and Revolutionary Guard influence amid domestic protests and international pressure.

Background: US and Nigerian forces killed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, the global second-in-command of ISIS, in a joint operation in the Lake Chad Basin. Today: Joint airstrikes killed at least 175 Islamic State fighters, including al-Minuki, in Nigeria's northeast. The operation under AFRICOM marks an expanded US military role beyond intelligence and training, raising concerns about transparency and civilian casualty risks. Nigeria's military is stretched thin by multiple insurgencies, and analysts warn of limited long-term impact without addressing recruitment and root causes.

In a single news cycle, the AI industry produced a cascade of milestones: OpenAI's reasoning model solved an 80-year-old math problem; Anthropic is on track for its first profitable quarter with revenue set to reach $10.9 billion; Anthropic signed a $1.25 billion per month compute deal with SpaceX through 2029; Nvidia posted $81.6 billion in revenue; SpaceX filed for its IPO; and President Trump plans to sign an AI executive order requiring labs to share models with the government 90 days before release. These developments highlight the rapid expansion of AI capabilities, infrastructure, and regulation, even as public anxiety over job displacement and inequality grows.

Nvidia previously reported better-than-expected Q1 revenue driven by AI infrastructure demand. Today, Nvidia posted record Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue of $81.6 billion (up 85% YoY) and net income of $58.3 billion, with data center revenue hitting $75.2 billion. The company forecast $91 billion in Q2 revenue and announced a dividend increase to 25 cents per share and an $80 billion share buyback. CEO Jensen Huang noted demand has 'gone parabolic' with the era of agentic AI. Despite beating expectations, shares fell 1.6% in after-hours trading as investors seek hypergrowth and worry about growing competition from Huawei. Nvidia also disclosed a $10 billion investment in Anthropic, a major deal with Meta, and a commitment to CoreWeave targeting five gigawatts of AI facilities by 2030. Huang said he has 'largely conceded' the Chinese market to Huawei, and Nvidia is not assuming any data center revenue from China in its outlook.

China is actively shaping global AI governance through multilateral initiatives, standards-setting, and bundling governance with infrastructure exports. This strategy embeds Beijing's political preferences, including censorship and regime security, into AI systems used worldwide. The diffusion of Chinese-style AI regulation risks increasing compliance costs for U.S. firms, lowering barriers for Chinese competitors, and undermining American tech leadership. The article argues Washington must proactively engage in international AI governance to counter Beijing's influence.

U.S. immigration enforcement agencies, including CBP and ICE, are increasingly using facial recognition technology to verify identities and detect overstays. CBP's Traveler Verification Service has processed over 939 million travelers and identified more than 2,284 impostors. ICE uses the Mobile Fortify app on smartphones to compare photos against over 200 million federal database images. The technology is deployed at all international airports, 63 other airports, 39 seaports, and all pedestrian lanes at northern and southern borders. Critics, including the ACLU, raise concerns about privacy, accuracy, and racial disparities, while proponents highlight national security benefits.

A US doctor who contracted Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is being treated at Berlin's Charité hospital in a specialized high-level isolation unit. US authorities requested German assistance due to the shorter flight distance to Europe. The case highlights global health preparedness and the uneven distribution of such facilities, which are concentrated in the Global North.

An Air France flight from Paris to Detroit was diverted to Montreal on Wednesday after a passenger from Congo boarded in violation of new CDC travel restrictions barring travelers from Ebola-affected countries (Congo, Uganda, South Sudan) from entering the U.S. The passenger was disembarked in Montreal, and the flight continued to Detroit. The incident highlights the enforcement of the CDC's 30-day travel ban, which also requires flights carrying affected travelers to land at Washington Dulles for enhanced screening.

Senior officials from the Department of Justice and Department of Health and Human Services, including HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., CMS Director Mehmet Oz, and Assistant Attorney General Colin McDonald, will hold a press conference Thursday at noon EDT to announce a major law enforcement action in Minnesota. The action is part of the Trump administration's ongoing investigation into alleged fraud in the state's social service programs.

President Trump's purge of disloyal Republicans led to the primary defeat of Rep. Thomas Massie, weakening the House majority. Following Massie's defeat, Trump has compiled a list of additional GOP critics—including Reps. Lauren Boebert, Warren Davidson, Brian Fitzpatrick, and Sen. Rand Paul—to challenge in the 2028 primaries. His well-funded political operation, led by former campaign aides Chris LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio, aims to extend his influence beyond his term. However, the strategy risks alienating lawmakers needed for narrow majorities, as seen with Sen. Bill Cassidy's opposition to Trump's agenda.

Background: Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan attended a NATO foreign ministers meeting in Helsingborg, Sweden, to prepare for the July summit in Ankara. The meeting expanded to include US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul, and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, focusing on enhancing European military capabilities, burden-sharing, tensions with the US over potential troop withdrawals, the Iran war, and continued support for Ukraine. The agenda also addresses these tensions and the Iran war, with the same key attendees expected, as the meeting prepares for the July NATO summit in Ankara.

A bipartisan US Senate resolution (S.Res.236) demands the unconditional return of all Ukrainian children abducted by Russia before any peace deal is finalized. The resolution is paired with binding legislation, including the Abducted Ukrainian Children Recovery and Accountability Act (passed as part of the NDAA) and a bill that would designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism if children are not returned. The EU, Canada, and Ukraine are coordinating through the International Coalition for the Return of Ukrainian Children, and the EU has imposed sanctions on 16 individuals and 7 entities involved in the deportations. The ICC has issued arrest warrants for Putin and Lvova-Belova over the issue.

The U.S. government has ordered that all American citizens and lawful permanent residents who have been in Congo, Uganda, or South Sudan within the past 21 days must undergo enhanced public health screening at Washington Dulles International Airport. The CDC has also barred foreign passport holders from these countries. The measure follows the WHO's declaration of a public health emergency of international concern due to Ebola (Bundibugyo virus) outbreaks in Congo and Uganda. The directive applies to flights departing after 11:59 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, with crew and cargo-only flights exempt. The Defense Department will manage its own flights in line with HHS guidelines.

The Democratic National Committee released a long-awaited autopsy report on the party's 2024 presidential election loss, written by strategist Paul Rivera, but the report has been criticized for lacking source material and containing inconsistencies. Meanwhile, Senate Republicans are considering removing a $1 billion request for a White House ballroom from a Department of Homeland Security funding bill due to backlash from GOP lawmakers. Other developments include Trump's EPA rolling back refrigerant rules, a student lawsuit against the University of Michigan over surveillance of Gaza protests, ICE using facial recognition in Oregon farm worker arrests, an Ebola outbreak in the DRC with reduced U.S. aid, and the indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro.

NIH Director Jay Bhattacharya testified before the Senate Appropriations Committee on President Trump's fiscal 2027 budget request, which proposes a $5 billion reduction in NIH funding, including cuts to grant and research programs. The hearing also addressed the hantavirus outbreak following deaths on a cruise ship, with Bhattacharya downplaying comparisons to COVID-19.

Background: The US Justice Department indicted former Cuban President Raúl Castro for the 1996 shootdown of civilian aircraft, and Cuba faced a severe energy crisis due to a US fuel blockade. China's foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun called on the US to stop using coercion and threats against Cuba, expressing firm support for Cuba's sovereignty and opposing external interference. The indictment of Castro and five others for the 1996 shootdown of two civilian aircraft operated by Brothers to the Rescue has fueled debate in the US about potential military action against Cuba. Some Republican lawmakers, including Sen. Rick Scott and Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, voiced support for an invasion, while President Trump denied escalation plans, stating Cuba is 'falling apart.' Democratic lawmakers and experts expressed skepticism, viewing the charges as a potential pretext for an illegal invasion. Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel and other officials condemned the indictment as a political maneuver and a fabrication to justify military aggression. The indictment, announced by acting Attorney General Todd Blanche in Miami, charges Castro with conspiracy to kill US nationals, murder, and destruction of aircraft, with a warrant issued for his arrest.

The Democratic National Committee (DNC) released a postmortem report on the party's 2024 election loss, written by strategist Paul Rivera. The report analyzes Kamala Harris's defeat to Donald Trump, focusing on lost demographics and campaign spending, but notably omits the roles of Joe Biden's age and U.S. support for Israel's Gaza war. The DNC added disclaimers questioning the report's sourcing and accuracy, and Chair Ken Martin apologized for initially withholding it.

Background: CIA Director Ratcliffe visited Cuba on May 14, 2026, delivering Trump's message that engagement requires fundamental changes, while the U.S. prepared an indictment against former President Raúl Castro and Cuba faced a fuel blockade-induced energy crisis. On May 20, Senator Rick Scott stated the U.S. will not need military intervention in Cuba, predicting a Cuban uprising, as the Justice Department unsealed the murder indictment against Raúl Castro for the 1996 shootdown of civilian aircraft. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced the indictment in Miami, stating that nations cannot target Americans without accountability. President Trump ruled out escalation, saying the country is 'falling apart.' Scott suggested Castro should face the same fate as Maduro but deferred to the administration, later adding that Trump would need to 'obliterate the regime' but predicted Castro would face U.S. justice.

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 8-1 on Thursday to reinstate a $440 million judgment against Carnival, MSC, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian for using docks at the Port of Havana between 2016 and 2019. The decision, authored by Justice Clarence Thomas, interprets the Helms-Burton Act to hold the cruise lines liable for trafficking in confiscated property. The case now returns to a lower court where the companies may present alternate arguments. The ruling coincides with the Trump administration's indictment of former Cuban President Raúl Castro for the 1996 shootdown of civilian planes, part of a broader pressure campaign on Cuba amid ongoing blackouts and fuel shortages.

The Atlantic Council's Economic Statecraft Initiative and Global Energy Center have launched the Energy Sanctions Dashboard, a tool analyzing how US sanctions on Russian, Iranian, and Venezuelan crude oil have removed millions of barrels per day from global markets since 2014. The dashboard highlights China as the primary destination for sanctioned crude via shadow fleets and transshipment, notes India's expected rise as the main driver of global crude demand, and calls for stronger enforcement, secondary sanctions, and public-private partnerships to curb evasion. The report also warns that China's oil demand is plateauing, which could undermine the economies of sanctioned regimes.

President Trump announced a final EPA rule giving companies more time to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in commercial refrigeration, citing high grocery costs. The move revises Biden-era regulations and is framed as a cost-saving measure for consumers, though environmental groups warn it undermines climate goals. EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett participated in the announcement.

Background: The US has escalated pressure on Cuba through economic sanctions, intelligence leaks, and potential legal action against Raúl Castro, signaling possible military intervention. Russia's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova pledged active support for Cuba, expressing full solidarity against U.S. interference and economic pressure. Russia has sent oil shipments to alleviate Cuba's energy crisis, but a tanker sent in April remains in a holding pattern in the Atlantic. The U.S. indictment of Raúl Castro for 1996 killings has sparked speculation of potential military intervention, with President Trump stating he would have the honor of taking Cuba.

A former US Air Force surgeon and combat casualty care expert warns that the US military medical system is not ready for the scale and nature of casualties expected in a future large-scale conflict, drawing lessons from the war in Ukraine. The article highlights that evacuation will be delayed, air superiority contested, and civilian hospitals will be the main effort, but the national trauma system is not integrated or resourced for this role. The author calls for a whole-of-nation approach to medical readiness and prioritization in the next National Defense Authorization Act.

A Government Accountability Office report released Wednesday reveals that the US Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps do not have adequate measures to ensure troops complete required suicide prevention training or to evaluate whether the training is effective. Despite a generally rising military suicide rate since 2011, only the Air Force and National Guard monitor training completion, and none of the services meet Pentagon standards for evaluating training effectiveness. The report recommends the Pentagon require completion data reporting and develop evaluation plans.

A scientific paper published in April concludes that the worst-case climate scenario (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5) is now less probable due to faster-than-expected renewable energy rollout and policy measures. However, the world is still on track for around 3°C warming by 2100. The UN General Assembly approved a nonbinding resolution reinforcing countries' obligations to combat climate change, opposed by the US, Russia, Iran, and Saudi Arabia.

The US Navy's 'Full Power Navy' pilot program, launched in February 2025, uses AI-powered decision support tools to identify sailors at risk of leaving and enables commanders to offer tailored incentives such as preferred assignments or locations. The program has converted 3,300 sailors who had begun the separation process, achieving a 20% increase in retention among targeted high-need ratings with 5-20 years of service. A related tool, Project Compass, algorithmically matches sailors with job openings.

Google previously announced a major search overhaul with AI agents and conversational features. At its I/O developer conference, the company focused entirely on AI, revamping its core search box to handle both traditional short queries and longer chatbot-style conversations. It introduced a new 'Ask YouTube' feature that returns text results and video links. Google debuted the faster, cheaper Gemini 3.5 Flash model, prioritizing cost-effective deployment over benchmark supremacy. CEO Sundar Pichai acknowledged fierce competition among frontier labs. Google is investing $180 billion in capital expenses this year, up sixfold from 2022, funded by its strong existing business. DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis highlighted the unique ability to deploy technologies into multibillion-dollar products immediately. The company also announced new tests for ads within chatbots, aiming to balance innovation with protecting its lucrative ad business.

Background: President Trump threatened to withdraw his endorsement of Rep. Lauren Boebert after she campaigned with Rep. Thomas Massie ahead of his primary. Today: After Massie lost his primary to Trump-backed Ed Gallrein, Boebert stated that Republican lawmakers can support Trump without agreeing on every issue, and criticized White House staff for dictating legislative terms to Congress. She confirmed that the filing deadline for a primary challenger has passed, making her general election matchup with Democrat Eileen Laubacher all but assured.

Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen, who previously reaffirmed self-determination after meeting with US envoy Jeff Landry, has now escalated tensions by refusing to attend the opening of the new US consulate in Nuuk. Nielsen cited strained relations with Washington, and other officials, including lawmaker Naaja H. Nathanielsen, also declined invitations to US consulate events. The consulate's inauguration ceremony proceeded without the premier's presence, amid ongoing tensions following US President Trump's repeated remarks about acquiring Greenland.

Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-NY) published an op-ed calling on Canada to participate in the first mandatory review of the USMCA trade agreement, accusing Canada of refusing to negotiate on issues including dairy market access, fruit and vegetable import restrictions, and retaliatory alcohol bans. She contrasts Canada's stance with Mexico's constructive engagement.

Colorado Democrats voted to censure Governor Jared Polis for commuting the sentence of former election clerk Tina Peters, who was convicted for illegally accessing voting machines. The censure restricts Polis from speaking at party events. Democrats criticized the commutation as undermining election integrity and yielding to pressure from President Trump. Polis defended the move, saying the original sentence was overly harsh and that Peters did not interfere with election results.

The US Marine Corps announced that Marines deployed in support of Customs and Border Protection along the US-Mexico border are now eligible for the newly created Mexican Border Defense Medal, established by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The medal applies to service members with at least 30 days of qualifying service since January 20, 2025, in border areas of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and California, and replaces the Armed Forces Service Medal for operations after August 13, 2025. This development formalizes recognition for thousands of troops deployed as part of Joint Task Force Southern Border.

The Defense POW/MIA Accounting Agency (DPAA) identified a record 231 service members in fiscal year 2025, but over 6,000 unidentified American war dead remain buried in overseas cemeteries. Forensic DNA experts argue the Pentagon relies too heavily on traditional methods and could accelerate identifications using modern nuclear DNA testing and forensic genealogy, similar to techniques used to identify Bosnian genocide victims. DPAA director Kelly McKeague defends the current approach, citing laboratory capacity limits and the need to preserve cemetery sanctity.

The U.S. Supreme Court dismissed Alabama's appeal in the case of death row inmate Joseph Clifton Smith, declining to rule on how multiple IQ scores should be evaluated in capital punishment cases. Smith, convicted of murder, has IQ scores ranging from low to mid-70s, with a lower court vacating his death sentence due to potential intellectual disability. The decision leaves states with discretion in defining intellectual disability for executions.

Lithuanian security expert Vytautas Leškevičius argues that Europe's panic over potential U.S. troop reductions is misplaced, as Washington has signaled for over a decade that Europe must assume greater responsibility for its own conventional defense. He warns against intra-European competition for U.S. forces and calls for collective capability-building, emphasizing that the U.S. nuclear guarantee remains the key commitment.

General Atomics Aeronautical Systems has completed the first flight of an MQ-9B remotely piloted aircraft fitted with Saab's LoyalEye airborne early warning pods. The flight took place on 19 May at GA-ASI's Desert Horizon facility in Southern California. This development could provide persistent air surveillance capability to uncrewed platforms, enabling detection of tactical air munitions, drones, and aircraft. The UK operates the MQ-9B as Protector, and this capability could significantly expand its role.