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Gallup confidence -45 lands on the Iran war's fourth Hormuz month as Trump tells Tehran no tolls, no uranium

A Gallup poll Friday put US economic confidence at -45 — the worst since 2022 — as the Iran war's fourth month at the Strait of Hormuz pushed the average gallon of petrol to $4.55, up from below $3 before late February. President Trump rejected any Hormuz transit toll and vowed Iran will retain no highly enriched uranium; Pakistan's Field Marshal Asim Munir landed in Tehran to finalise a US-Iran letter of intent; 11 countries summoned Israeli envoys over a Ben-Gvir flotilla-treatment video. Markets continued pricing a 2026 rate hike under new Fed chair Kevin Warsh.

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Gallup economic confidence falls to -45, worst since 2022, as Iran-war petrol prices push US gallon to $4.55

US economic confidence fell to -45 in Gallup's latest Economic Confidence Index, the worst reading since the 2022 cost-of-living crisis, with only 16 percent of Americans rating the economy as good or excellent and 76 percent saying conditions are getting worse. The poll, released Friday, ties the slide to inflation and a petrol-price surge to $4.55 per gallon — up from below $3 before the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February — driven by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Washington's naval siege of Iranian ports. The reading lands as a separate New York Times/Siena poll this week showed only 31 percent approve of President Donald Trump's handling of the war, even as Trump has said the economic fallout does not factor into his approach to Iran.

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US economic confidence fell to -45 in Gallup's latest Economic Confidence Index, the worst reading since the 2022 cost-of-living crisis, with only 16 percent of Americans rating the economy as good or excellent and 76 percent saying conditions are getting worse. The poll, released Friday, ties the slide to inflation and a petrol-price surge to $4.55 per gallon — up from below $3 before the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February — driven by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Washington's naval siege of Iranian ports. The reading lands as a separate New York Times/Siena poll this week showed only 31 percent approve of President Donald Trump's handling of the war, even as Trump has said the economic fallout does not factor into his approach to Iran.

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Strait of Hormuz standoff enters fourth month with US and Iran under economic strain

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is approaching its fourth month, marked by mutual blockades: Iran charges ships up to $2 million for safe passage while the US enforces a naval embargo on Iranian oil exports. Iran is losing an estimated $435 million per day in trade, with public finances suffering an estimated $17 billion loss as of Friday, according to FDD senior fellow Miad Maleki. US President Donald Trump faces pressure from Gulf allies and domestic inflation ahead of November mid-term elections.

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The Strait of Hormuz crisis is approaching its fourth month, marked by mutual blockades: Iran charges ships up to $2 million for safe passage while the US enforces a naval embargo on Iranian oil exports. Iran is losing an estimated $435 million per day in trade, with public finances suffering an estimated $17 billion loss as of Friday, according to FDD senior fellow Miad Maleki. US President Donald Trump faces pressure from Gulf allies and domestic inflation ahead of November mid-term elections.

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Trump opposes Hormuz tolls, vows to seize Iran's uranium; 11 countries summon Israeli envoys over Ben-Gvir flotilla video; UN reports 125,000 Gaza skin infections

US President Donald Trump said the United States opposes any tolls on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and vowed Iran will not be allowed to retain highly enriched uranium. Eleven countries, including eight European nations, summoned Israeli ambassadors over a video showing National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir overseeing the mistreatment of detained activists from the Global Sumud Flotilla. The UN’s Palestine agency reported more than 125,000 skin infection cases in Gaza linked to rats and parasites during the first five months of 2026.

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US President Donald Trump said the United States opposes any tolls on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and vowed Iran will not be allowed to retain highly enriched uranium. Eleven countries, including eight European nations, summoned Israeli ambassadors over a video showing National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir overseeing the mistreatment of detained activists from the Global Sumud Flotilla. The UN’s Palestine agency reported more than 125,000 skin infection cases in Gaza linked to rats and parasites during the first five months of 2026.

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Foreign Affairs warns Iran's Hormuz closure has set 'cheap, fast and devastating' precedent for Malacca, Taiwan, Luzon and Lombok chokepoints

A Foreign Affairs analysis published Friday warns that Iran's late-February closure of the Strait of Hormuz with drones, anti-ship missiles and mines — and President Donald Trump's mid-April declaration that the US Navy would blockade "any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave" the 21-nautical-mile waterway — has set a "cheap, fast, and devastating" template that may now spread to the Strait of Malacca, the Taiwan Strait, and the Luzon and Lombok straits. The piece notes the Malacca chokepoint carries 40 percent of global trade and 80 percent of Chinese energy imports through a 1.5-nautical-mile narrows, while a Taiwan Strait blockade — citing Bloomberg — could erase 5.3 percent of global GDP and halt advanced-semiconductor exports from the world's dominant producer. The authors recommend Washington finally accede to UNCLOS, decentralise semiconductor production to Germany and Japan, and upgrade secondary deep-water ports in the Philippines, Vietnam and India's east coast — even as Jakarta in early April recovered an unmanned underwater vehicle of suspected Chinese origin in the Lombok Strait.

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A Foreign Affairs analysis published Friday warns that Iran's late-February closure of the Strait of Hormuz with drones, anti-ship missiles and mines — and President Donald Trump's mid-April declaration that the US Navy would blockade "any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave" the 21-nautical-mile waterway — has set a "cheap, fast, and devastating" template that may now spread to the Strait of Malacca, the Taiwan Strait, and the Luzon and Lombok straits. The piece notes the Malacca chokepoint carries 40 percent of global trade and 80 percent of Chinese energy imports through a 1.5-nautical-mile narrows, while a Taiwan Strait blockade — citing Bloomberg — could erase 5.3 percent of global GDP and halt advanced-semiconductor exports from the world's dominant producer. The authors recommend Washington finally accede to UNCLOS, decentralise semiconductor production to Germany and Japan, and upgrade secondary deep-water ports in the Philippines, Vietnam and India's east coast — even as Jakarta in early April recovered an unmanned underwater vehicle of suspected Chinese origin in the Lombok Strait.

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Pakistani Field Marshal Munir arrives in Tehran to finalize US-Iran letter of intent

Pakistan's top military commander, Field Marshal Asim Munir, landed in Tehran on Friday to push for a deal ending the war and launching broader negotiations, a Pakistani security source told Axios. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged slight progress but reiterated that Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon. Munir was received by Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni, the Pakistani military said.

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Pakistan's top military commander, Field Marshal Asim Munir, landed in Tehran on Friday to push for a deal ending the war and launching broader negotiations, a Pakistani security source told Axios. Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged slight progress but reiterated that Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon. Munir was received by Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni, the Pakistani military said.

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Regional Mediators Travel to Tehran to Push for US-Iran Deal

Regional mediators have traveled to Tehran to facilitate negotiations between the United States and Iran, focusing on key issues such as nuclear program restrictions and sanctions relief. This diplomatic effort seeks to de-escalate tensions and reach a negotiated settlement. The mediators aim to bridge differences on these core issues to advance toward a potential deal.

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Regional mediators have traveled to Tehran to facilitate negotiations between the United States and Iran, focusing on key issues such as nuclear program restrictions and sanctions relief. This diplomatic effort seeks to de-escalate tensions and reach a negotiated settlement. The mediators aim to bridge differences on these core issues to advance toward a potential deal.

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Qatar sends mediators to Tehran as Strait of Hormuz deal nears; US rejects toll proposal

Background: Iran submitted its formal response to a US peace proposal via Pakistani mediators, and permitted the first Qatari LNG tanker to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began. In a new development, Qatar has dispatched mediators to Tehran as talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz appear close to a memorandum of understanding. The deal would involve Iran lifting its blockade in exchange for sanctions relief and a 30-day pause on nuclear negotiations. Iran seeks to establish a Persian Gulf Strait Authority to impose tolls, which the US and five Gulf states reject. Pakistan is also mediating, and China may be brought in as a guarantor. The head of the Pakistan army, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was also expected in Tehran. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there had been 'a little progress' but the US would not accept tolls. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson said the focus is on ending the war on all fronts, not nuclear issues. Russia has offered to receive Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, but Iran says it will downblend it inside Iran.

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Background: Iran submitted its formal response to a US peace proposal via Pakistani mediators, and permitted the first Qatari LNG tanker to transit the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began. In a new development, Qatar has dispatched mediators to Tehran as talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz appear close to a memorandum of understanding. The deal would involve Iran lifting its blockade in exchange for sanctions relief and a 30-day pause on nuclear negotiations. Iran seeks to establish a Persian Gulf Strait Authority to impose tolls, which the US and five Gulf states reject. Pakistan is also mediating, and China may be brought in as a guarantor. The head of the Pakistan army, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was also expected in Tehran. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there had been 'a little progress' but the US would not accept tolls. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson said the focus is on ending the war on all fronts, not nuclear issues. Russia has offered to receive Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, but Iran says it will downblend it inside Iran.

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Wall Street expects 2026 rate hike as Kevin Warsh leads Federal Reserve

Financial markets are pricing in an interest rate increase in 2026 following Kevin Warsh's appointment as Federal Reserve Chair, reflecting expectations of tighter monetary policy.

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Financial markets are pricing in an interest rate increase in 2026 following Kevin Warsh's appointment as Federal Reserve Chair, reflecting expectations of tighter monetary policy.

Frequently Asked

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What is the current Gallup Economic Confidence Index reading?
The Gallup Economic Confidence Index reading is -45, the worst since the 2022 cost-of-living crisis.
How has the Iran war affected US petrol prices?
The average US price of a gallon of petrol has risen to $4.55 from less than $3 before the war began in late February.
What is Trump's position on the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's uranium?
Trump said the US opposes any tolls on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and vowed Iran will not be allowed to retain its highly enriched uranium stockpile.
What diplomatic efforts are underway to end the Iran war?
Pakistani Field Marshal Asim Munir is mediating a US-Iran letter of intent, and Qatar is mediating talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
How much is Iran losing daily due to the blockade?
Iran is losing roughly $435 million per day in trade, with public finances down approximately $17 billion as of Friday.