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Global Briefing June 2

Ukraine War Attrition Widens as Europe Rethinks Defence

June 2 brought two grinding wars and their mounting bill. Defense Express said Russia now out-produces the US on the missiles and interceptors that decide the air war, hours after a 729-weapon barrage killed 21 in Kyiv and Dnipro, though ISW judged its offensive largely halted. The US opened confidential talks to extend NATO nuclear sharing to Poland and the Baltics, and Britain's John Healey called the Russian threat "real and rising." Iran embraced a "forever war," France said threatened Israeli strikes on Beirut would not go ahead, and the World Bank saw growth slowing to 2.6 percent.

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us · United States

Trump Can't End Iran War, So He Changes Subject

This was the week the Iran war stopped being a foreign-policy story for Americans and became a domestic one: inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2%, petrol is up 39% since the fighting began, and a hundred days in the average household is $750 poorer. The economy is somehow still adding jobs. But unable to end the war that is driving the prices, the president spent the week fighting on every other front instead — his own last election, naturalised citizens, China, and the spy law that briefs him each morning.

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gb · United Kingdom

Britain Runs Out of Money for Defence and Order

John Healey's resignation as defence secretary was not an ordinary reshuffle: he walked out accusing Keir Starmer and the Treasury of refusing to pay for Britain's defence at the most dangerous moment since the Cold War, the week the entire fleet of attack submarines sat in dock. And as the state struggled to fund the things that keep a country safe abroad, it was visibly losing its grip on order at home — the Henry Nowak murder, riots in Belfast, a stabbing in a Manchester school. A government is meant to be able to do both. This one, this week, could do neither.

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fr · France

Lyhanna Murder Puts French State on Trial

The killing of 11-year-old Lyhanna did what no ordinary political crisis had managed: it put the French state itself in the dock. Her suspected killer had been accused of raping a 10-year-old the previous August and was never questioned. More than 60,000 people marched; the justice minister apologised and ordered a review of 70,000 abuse cases while refusing to resign; the far right demanded his head. Abroad, France was helping lead the diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. At home, it could not protect a child it had been warned about.

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de · Germany

Merz Bets Germany's Future on Autonomy as US Pulls 5,000 Troops

Friedrich Merz has made his choice: a Germany less dependent on an America it no longer trusts. This week he absorbed the loss of 5,000 US troops pulled out over his criticism of the Iran war, killed the €100bn FCAS fighter jet with France, and offered Ukraine a seat inside the EU. It is a coherent bet on strategic autonomy. The catch is that the costs are arriving at home — a suspected extremist arson that blacked out 40,000 homes, and a record 85,837 politically motivated crimes — before the autonomy does.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Offers to Freeze War by Escalating Strikes

Ukraine spent the week doing two things that only look contradictory: offering to freeze the war and fighting it harder than ever. Zelenskyy signalled he would accept halting the conflict along the current front line, and Europe lined up behind him. At the same time his long-range drones set Russia's fuel system alight, spreading petrol shortages to 25 regions. The escalation is not at odds with the peace offer — it is what gives the offer its weight. Whether Moscow ever picks it up depends less on the talks than on how dry Russia's pumps run.

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tr · Turkey

Erdoğan Declares Turkey a 'Playmaker' at Security Conference

Erdoğan spent the week looking indispensable to the world — mediating between Washington and Tehran, branding Turkey a regional 'playmaker', and savaging Netanyahu over Gaza. It is real influence, and it has a domestic use. The more the West needs Ankara, the freer his hand at home, where he has jailed his strongest rival and hundreds of opposition officials and will host NATO's leaders next month behind 40,000 security personnel. The same assertiveness that makes Turkey useful to Washington also had its jets harassing European defence ministers off Cyprus.

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Day in Review

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Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us95

US in confidential talks to expand NATO nuclear sharing beyond its six host states

The United States is holding confidential talks with NATO allies about deploying nuclear weapons in additional European countries beyond the six current host states, the Financial Times reported on June 2, citing three people briefed on the discussions. The talks centre on expanding the dual-capable aircraft program -- allied jets configured to deliver US B61 bombs under Washington's sole authorisation -- with Poland and the Baltic states the most vocal in seeking to host them. Officials cautioned that no agreement is imminent and that the move would cut against the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act, under which the alliance pledged not to station nuclear weapons in new member states.

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The United States is holding confidential talks with NATO allies about deploying nuclear weapons in additional European countries beyond the six current host states, the Financial Times reported on June 2, citing three people briefed on the discussions. The talks centre on expanding the dual-capable aircraft program -- allied jets configured to deliver US B61 bombs under Washington's sole authorisation -- with Poland and the Baltic states the most vocal in seeking to host them. Officials cautioned that no agreement is imminent and that the move would cut against the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act, under which the alliance pledged not to station nuclear weapons in new member states.

ua95

Russia's monthly ballistic-missile output now exceeds US production of the Patriot interceptors Ukraine uses to stop them

Russia is producing roughly 70 ballistic missiles a month for its Iskander and Kinzhal systems -- more than the about 56 PAC-3 MSE interceptors Lockheed Martin builds in the same period -- Defense Express chief editor Oleh Katkov said on Suspilne TV, citing Ukrainian intelligence and Lockheed data. Because intercepting one Iskander typically takes two to three PAC-3s, the effective shortfall is far wider, and Ukraine's air force already calls its interceptor supply a "starvation ration." The arithmetic came into focus hours after a 729-missile-and-drone overnight barrage killed 21 people in Kyiv and Dnipro, with US Patriot stocks further drained by the Iran war.

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Russia is producing roughly 70 ballistic missiles a month for its Iskander and Kinzhal systems -- more than the about 56 PAC-3 MSE interceptors Lockheed Martin builds in the same period -- Defense Express chief editor Oleh Katkov said on Suspilne TV, citing Ukrainian intelligence and Lockheed data. Because intercepting one Iskander typically takes two to three PAC-3s, the effective shortfall is far wider, and Ukraine's air force already calls its interceptor supply a "starvation ration." The arithmetic came into focus hours after a 729-missile-and-drone overnight barrage killed 21 people in Kyiv and Dnipro, with US Patriot stocks further drained by the Iran war.

gb95

UK defence secretary tells MPs the Russian threat is 'real and rising,' speeds air-defence aid to Ukraine

Defence Secretary John Healey told the House of Commons that Russia poses a "significant and persistent" threat to the UK and conducts hostile cyber-activity, disinformation and sabotage against NATO allies "almost daily." He said he had ordered UK air-defence deliveries to Ukraine accelerated and would chair this month's 50-nation Ukraine Defence Contact Group at NATO headquarters, telling Vladimir Putin: "we see you; we will expose you." Healey cited past disclosures -- the Russian spy ship Yantar shadowing British undersea infrastructure and a covert submarine programme in UK waters -- and said the public must grasp that the threat is real and rising.

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Defence Secretary John Healey told the House of Commons that Russia poses a "significant and persistent" threat to the UK and conducts hostile cyber-activity, disinformation and sabotage against NATO allies "almost daily." He said he had ordered UK air-defence deliveries to Ukraine accelerated and would chair this month's 50-nation Ukraine Defence Contact Group at NATO headquarters, telling Vladimir Putin: "we see you; we will expose you." Healey cited past disclosures -- the Russian spy ship Yantar shadowing British undersea infrastructure and a covert submarine programme in UK waters -- and said the public must grasp that the threat is real and rising.

us92

Iran adopts 'forever war' strategy, sees prolonged conflict as preferable to diplomacy

Iran has concluded that prolonged conflict with the United States is preferable to diplomacy, viewing the war as a means to increase its international power and force Washington to reconsider its assumption that Tehran is weak. Tehran has used the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on Arab states hosting U.S. bases to drive a wedge between Washington and its Gulf partners, while hard-liners now firmly command the country after the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal and subsequent U.S. bombing campaigns. The Islamic Republic engages in talks only to manage the tempo of conflict and lower international pressure, refusing to make concessions that would diminish its leverage.

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Iran has concluded that prolonged conflict with the United States is preferable to diplomacy, viewing the war as a means to increase its international power and force Washington to reconsider its assumption that Tehran is weak. Tehran has used the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on Arab states hosting U.S. bases to drive a wedge between Washington and its Gulf partners, while hard-liners now firmly command the country after the collapse of the 2015 nuclear deal and subsequent U.S. bombing campaigns. The Islamic Republic engages in talks only to manage the tempo of conflict and lower international pressure, refusing to make concessions that would diminish its leverage.

fr90

French foreign minister says threatened Israeli strikes on Beirut will not take place

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on June 2 that the strikes Israel had threatened against Beirut "will not take place," crediting a round of diplomacy that included a call between President Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump on Sunday and his own talks with Iranian and US counterparts. He pressed for a mutual Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and the restoration of Lebanese state authority, with Israeli-Lebanese talks due in Washington this week, while insisting Lebanon must not become "a scapegoat" for the stalled Iran-US nuclear deal. Barrot also called the closure of the Strait of Hormuz unsustainable and said an agreement between Tehran and Washington was "within reach."

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French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on June 2 that the strikes Israel had threatened against Beirut "will not take place," crediting a round of diplomacy that included a call between President Emmanuel Macron and Donald Trump on Sunday and his own talks with Iranian and US counterparts. He pressed for a mutual Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and the restoration of Lebanese state authority, with Israeli-Lebanese talks due in Washington this week, while insisting Lebanon must not become "a scapegoat" for the stalled Iran-US nuclear deal. Barrot also called the closure of the Strait of Hormuz unsustainable and said an agreement between Tehran and Washington was "within reach."

ua90

Ukrainian forces have largely halted Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, ISW says

Ukrainian forces have largely halted Russia's Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, with Russian forces gaining only a fraction of the territory they did in May 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The slowdown appears unrelated to seasonal weather and likely reflects broader battlefield shifts. Russian President Vladimir Putin is resisting pressure to cut defense spending despite warnings from economic officials about unsustainable strain on the economy.

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Ukrainian forces have largely halted Russia's Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, with Russian forces gaining only a fraction of the territory they did in May 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The slowdown appears unrelated to seasonal weather and likely reflects broader battlefield shifts. Russian President Vladimir Putin is resisting pressure to cut defense spending despite warnings from economic officials about unsustainable strain on the economy.

tr90

Housing took nearly a third of Turkish household spending in 2025, and 39 percent among the poorest

Housing and rent accounted for 29.3 percent of Turkish household consumption in 2025, up from 26 percent a year earlier, TurkStat reported on June 2, with housing costs up 46.6 percent year-on-year even as broader inflation eased. The burden fell hardest on the poorest households, which spent 38.7 percent of their budgets on housing against 25.7 percent for the richest, while single-person households put 41 percent toward shelter. Transportation (20.5 percent) and food (17.3 percent) ranked next, and officials linked renewed price pressure to the Iran war, which pushed annual consumer inflation back to 32.4 percent in April.

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Housing and rent accounted for 29.3 percent of Turkish household consumption in 2025, up from 26 percent a year earlier, TurkStat reported on June 2, with housing costs up 46.6 percent year-on-year even as broader inflation eased. The burden fell hardest on the poorest households, which spent 38.7 percent of their budgets on housing against 25.7 percent for the richest, while single-person households put 41 percent toward shelter. Transportation (20.5 percent) and food (17.3 percent) ranked next, and officials linked renewed price pressure to the Iran war, which pushed annual consumer inflation back to 32.4 percent in April.

us88

Trump pressed Xi to use Chinese leverage to restart Ukraine-Russia peace talks, SCMP reports

US President Donald Trump urged Chinese leader Xi Jinping during their May summit in Beijing to use Beijing's influence over Moscow to revive stalled Russia-Ukraine negotiations, the South China Morning Post reported on June 1, citing multiple sources. Trump told Xi that talks between Moscow and Kyiv had collapsed and asked him to bring Vladimir Putin back to the table. The White House and the Chinese embassy in Washington declined to comment.

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US President Donald Trump urged Chinese leader Xi Jinping during their May summit in Beijing to use Beijing's influence over Moscow to revive stalled Russia-Ukraine negotiations, the South China Morning Post reported on June 1, citing multiple sources. Trump told Xi that talks between Moscow and Kyiv had collapsed and asked him to bring Vladimir Putin back to the table. The White House and the Chinese embassy in Washington declined to comment.

de88

Germany's labour agency heads for 23 billion euros in debt by 2030 as jobless forecasts worsen

Germany's Federal Employment Agency (BA) is on course for a deficit of more than 8 billion euros this year and cumulative debt of about 23 billion euros by 2030, according to a report prepared for the Bundestag budget committee and seen by Reuters. A weaker labour market -- higher average unemployment feeding higher jobless-benefit payouts -- is driving the shortfall, which the agency would have to cover with federal loans unless the unemployment-insurance contribution rate rises. BA chief Andrea Nahles said the hoped-for spring recovery had "not really got going."

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Germany's Federal Employment Agency (BA) is on course for a deficit of more than 8 billion euros this year and cumulative debt of about 23 billion euros by 2030, according to a report prepared for the Bundestag budget committee and seen by Reuters. A weaker labour market -- higher average unemployment feeding higher jobless-benefit payouts -- is driving the shortfall, which the agency would have to cover with federal loans unless the unemployment-insurance contribution rate rises. BA chief Andrea Nahles said the hoped-for spring recovery had "not really got going."

gb88

UK PM Starmer condemns Farage over response to Henry Nowak murder

Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned Reform UK leader Nigel Farage for urging a response of “pure cold rage” to the murder of 17-year-old Henry Nowak, calling it “the wrong reaction.” Starmer said he felt “sick” watching body-cam footage of Nowak being handcuffed as he lay dying, and cited the family’s plea not to have the case “whipped up.” He did not rule out a Macpherson-style inquiry into police anti-racist culture but said the IOPC should finish its investigation first.

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Prime Minister Keir Starmer condemned Reform UK leader Nigel Farage for urging a response of “pure cold rage” to the murder of 17-year-old Henry Nowak, calling it “the wrong reaction.” Starmer said he felt “sick” watching body-cam footage of Nowak being handcuffed as he lay dying, and cited the family’s plea not to have the case “whipped up.” He did not rule out a Macpherson-style inquiry into police anti-racist culture but said the IOPC should finish its investigation first.