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Global Briefing June 26

Both Wars Nearly Won, But No Path to Peace

Both of the world's biggest wars edged toward their end this week — Turkish ships cleared the Strait of Hormuz after 100 days, Ukraine all but severed occupied Crimea, the US Senate voted 50-48 to halt the Iran war — yet none produced a peace. Iran called the signed memorandum a "US defeat" and Trump threatened to scrap it; Moscow met the loss of Crimea with nuclear talk as New START lay expired; and a heat-struck Europe, reactors offline and Volkswagen shedding 100,000 jobs, was in no state to backstop anyone.

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us · United States

Trump Opens Iran War and Midterm Campaigns

Trump entered the ninth night of renewed strikes on Iran with US service members dead, gasoline back at $4 and a $1.15tn defence bill blocked in the Senate. He then used a primetime address to claim China obtained 220m voter files, though his own declassified documents showed no altered votes. TSMC promised another $100bn for US fabs as the White House searched for an economic counter-story.

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gb · United Kingdom

Andy Burnham Promises Circuit Breaker for UK State

Andy Burnham entered Downing Street promising a ten-year “circuit breaker” after Britain’s seventh change of prime minister since 2016. He scrapped a £1.8bn digital-ID plan and ordered cost-of-living relief, but debt exceeds 95% of GDP and the IMF says fiscal room is tight. An official finding that MI5 misled three courts made his promise to restore public trust more than campaign rhetoric.

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fr · France

Macron Ties France to Germany in Nuclear Deterrence Pact

Macron used his final Bastille week to place German forces inside a French nuclear exercise and offer Berlin co-production of SAMP/T NG, even as the common tank project lost its tank. Mélenchon threatened to break the arrangement and Elon Musk called Marine Le Pen France’s “last hope.” At home, Parliament passed assisted dying 291–241 while a pesticide amendment put a 78-article farm bill at risk.

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de · Germany

Merz Builds Stronger Security State Before AfD Rise

Germany raised its threat level from “abstract” to “high” as Russian influence operations favoured the AfD and an Iranian newspaper named Friedrich Merz on a revenge list. Berlin is preparing active powers for its intelligence agencies while joining a French nuclear exercise and licensing €2.5bn of arms for Ukraine. With the AfD above 40% in Saxony-Anhalt, the powers built for today’s threats could belong to tomorrow’s government.

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ua · Ukraine

Zelensky Dismisses Fedorov Amid Ukraine War Ministry Crisis

Zelensky removed Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after his feud with Oleksandr Syrskyi became unworkable, drawing protests in at least 16 cities and an ultimatum for 24 July. The rupture came as 145 Russian troops infiltrated Kostiantynivka, a Ukrainian drone destroyed a Tu-95 at Engels-2, and Russian missiles killed 10 people aboard the grain carrier Golden Leo.

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tr · Turkey

Turkey's Montreux Convention Outlasts Erdoğan's Emergency Politics

Turkey marked 90 years of the Montreux Convention by destroying an explosive drone that washed ashore in Istanbul, proof that control of the straits cannot contain every Black Sea risk. The anniversary followed a decade since the failed coup, as Özgür Özel prepared a breakaway party and another CHP mayor was detained. Abroad, Ankara pursued influence in Ukraine and Syria without choosing a camp.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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ua49

Ukraine launches 40-day SBU operation, strikes Russian naval vessels and S-400 in Kerch, and hits Azot chemical plant in Tula region

President Zelensky approved a 40-day SBU influence operation to pressure Russia into ending the war. On June 25-26, SBU drones struck the Volga and Vyatka cable-laying ships and the Petropavlovsk ferry at the Zaliv shipyard in occupied Kerch, causing large fires, and hit an S-400 air defense system covering the Kerch Strait. Separately, Ukrainian drones attacked the Azot chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula region, causing damage and a fire at the plant and a nearby power station. Russia claimed to have intercepted 660 drones across multiple regions, including 47 over Moscow. The Kerch Strait crossing was closed, leading to a 15-km queue of vehicles trying to leave Crimea amid a fuel shortage.

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President Zelensky approved a 40-day SBU influence operation to pressure Russia into ending the war. On June 25-26, SBU drones struck the Volga and Vyatka cable-laying ships and the Petropavlovsk ferry at the Zaliv shipyard in occupied Kerch, causing large fires, and hit an S-400 air defense system covering the Kerch Strait. Separately, Ukrainian drones attacked the Azot chemical plant in Novomoskovsk, Tula region, causing damage and a fire at the plant and a nearby power station. Russia claimed to have intercepted 660 drones across multiple regions, including 47 over Moscow. The Kerch Strait crossing was closed, leading to a 15-km queue of vehicles trying to leave Crimea amid a fuel shortage.

us49

US considers relocating Gulf military bases to Israel after Iranian retaliatory strikes

The United States is reportedly considering moving some of its military bases from the Gulf region to Israel, following extensive damage inflicted by Iranian retaliatory strikes on US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon may refurbish its base in Bahrain while winding down operations in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, with two officials suggesting a possible relocation to Israel. The strikes were launched by Iran after the US-Israeli attack on Iran began on 28 February, and the US Navy base in Bahrain suffered repeated attacks between late February and June, causing damage to command headquarters and at least a dozen other buildings. The Pentagon has not acknowledged the full extent of the destruction. This development comes amid shifting US public opinion, with a Quinnipiac University poll showing 60% of Americans believe the war with Iran was not worth it, and 61% believing Iran remains likely to develop nuclear weapons despite the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.

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The United States is reportedly considering moving some of its military bases from the Gulf region to Israel, following extensive damage inflicted by Iranian retaliatory strikes on US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon may refurbish its base in Bahrain while winding down operations in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, with two officials suggesting a possible relocation to Israel. The strikes were launched by Iran after the US-Israeli attack on Iran began on 28 February, and the US Navy base in Bahrain suffered repeated attacks between late February and June, causing damage to command headquarters and at least a dozen other buildings. The Pentagon has not acknowledged the full extent of the destruction. This development comes amid shifting US public opinion, with a Quinnipiac University poll showing 60% of Americans believe the war with Iran was not worth it, and 61% believing Iran remains likely to develop nuclear weapons despite the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.

us49

US Senate passes war powers resolution to end Iran hostilities, joining House in historic rebuke of Trump

The Republican-led U.S. Senate voted 50-48 to approve a House-passed war powers resolution directing President Trump to cease military action against Iran, marking the first time both chambers have passed such a measure. Four Republicans—Susan Collins, Rand Paul, Bill Cassidy, and Lisa Murkowski—joined Democrats in favor, while Democrat John Fetterman voted against. The concurrent resolution, passed under the 1973 War Powers Act, does not require the president's signature and its enforceability is disputed. The vote reflects growing bipartisan concern over the conflict that began on February 28 and comes amid ongoing peace negotiations and public opposition to the war.

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The Republican-led U.S. Senate voted 50-48 to approve a House-passed war powers resolution directing President Trump to cease military action against Iran, marking the first time both chambers have passed such a measure. Four Republicans—Susan Collins, Rand Paul, Bill Cassidy, and Lisa Murkowski—joined Democrats in favor, while Democrat John Fetterman voted against. The concurrent resolution, passed under the 1973 War Powers Act, does not require the president's signature and its enforceability is disputed. The vote reflects growing bipartisan concern over the conflict that began on February 28 and comes amid ongoing peace negotiations and public opposition to the war.

us48

Kremlin says nuclear deterrence is the only guarantee against global war as arms control treaty expires

Background: Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov previously declared nuclear weapons as the cornerstone of Russia's national security and signaled openness to EU talks. Today, at a foreign policy forum in Moscow, Peskov stated that nuclear deterrence is the only thing preventing a global war, as the New START treaty has expired with no replacement in sight. He warned that new non-nuclear weapons may eventually match nuclear destructive power, and reiterated Russia's position that any new arms control deal must include US allies Britain and France if China is included. The statement comes amid ongoing arms control discussions involving the US, China, Britain, and France.

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Background: Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov previously declared nuclear weapons as the cornerstone of Russia's national security and signaled openness to EU talks. Today, at a foreign policy forum in Moscow, Peskov stated that nuclear deterrence is the only thing preventing a global war, as the New START treaty has expired with no replacement in sight. He warned that new non-nuclear weapons may eventually match nuclear destructive power, and reiterated Russia's position that any new arms control deal must include US allies Britain and France if China is included. The statement comes amid ongoing arms control discussions involving the US, China, Britain, and France.

us48

IMO pauses Strait of Hormuz evacuation after Iranian drone strike on cargo vessel; Iran and US clash over navigation rights

The UN International Maritime Organization (IMO) paused its evacuation of stranded seafarers from the Strait of Hormuz after the Singapore-flagged cargo vessel Ever Lovely was struck by an Iranian drone on June 25 while following a new Omani-IMO southern route. The IMO had reported that 115 vessels and 2,500 seafarers had been evacuated since Tuesday before suspending the operation. Iran's IRGC warned that only routes designated by Tehran are safe and that vessels not coordinating with Iran face consequences; Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated that safe passage cannot be guaranteed under ambiguous arrangements or parallel routes, citing Article 5 of the Islamabad MoU. The US and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) issued a joint statement rejecting any tolls or Iranian control over the strait and calling for free navigation. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio assured Gulf allies that any Iran deal will not undermine their interests. Iran and Oman announced plans to discuss future administration of the strait. Traffic through the strait has increased but remains below pre-war levels, with 70 confirmed crossings on June 24. South Korea reported that five more of its vessels exited the strait, with 13 still remaining. Saudi Aramco resumed oil loading at Ras Tanura terminal after a nearly four-month halt. Oil prices fell below pre-war levels. The incident highlights unresolved tensions over navigation rights following the US-Iran MoU.

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The UN International Maritime Organization (IMO) paused its evacuation of stranded seafarers from the Strait of Hormuz after the Singapore-flagged cargo vessel Ever Lovely was struck by an Iranian drone on June 25 while following a new Omani-IMO southern route. The IMO had reported that 115 vessels and 2,500 seafarers had been evacuated since Tuesday before suspending the operation. Iran's IRGC warned that only routes designated by Tehran are safe and that vessels not coordinating with Iran face consequences; Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi stated that safe passage cannot be guaranteed under ambiguous arrangements or parallel routes, citing Article 5 of the Islamabad MoU. The US and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) issued a joint statement rejecting any tolls or Iranian control over the strait and calling for free navigation. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio assured Gulf allies that any Iran deal will not undermine their interests. Iran and Oman announced plans to discuss future administration of the strait. Traffic through the strait has increased but remains below pre-war levels, with 70 confirmed crossings on June 24. South Korea reported that five more of its vessels exited the strait, with 13 still remaining. Saudi Aramco resumed oil loading at Ras Tanura terminal after a nearly four-month halt. Oil prices fell below pre-war levels. The incident highlights unresolved tensions over navigation rights following the US-Iran MoU.

ua48

Russia declares state of emergency in occupied Crimea amid fuel and power crisis from Ukrainian strikes

Russian-installed authorities in occupied Crimea and Sevastopol declared a regional state of emergency on June 26, 2026, citing a deepening fuel and electricity crisis caused by intensified Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on the peninsula's energy infrastructure, fuel depots, and supply routes. The emergency grants authorities powers to restrict movement, halt enterprises, and expedite resource allocation. The crisis follows weeks of Ukrainian strikes that have knocked out power plants, caused widespread blackouts, halted fuel sales to the public, and disrupted logistics, including rail and ferry connections to mainland Russia. The declaration underscores the growing effectiveness of Ukraine's campaign to isolate Crimea and degrade Russia's military logistics in southern Ukraine.

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Russian-installed authorities in occupied Crimea and Sevastopol declared a regional state of emergency on June 26, 2026, citing a deepening fuel and electricity crisis caused by intensified Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on the peninsula's energy infrastructure, fuel depots, and supply routes. The emergency grants authorities powers to restrict movement, halt enterprises, and expedite resource allocation. The crisis follows weeks of Ukrainian strikes that have knocked out power plants, caused widespread blackouts, halted fuel sales to the public, and disrupted logistics, including rail and ferry connections to mainland Russia. The declaration underscores the growing effectiveness of Ukraine's campaign to isolate Crimea and degrade Russia's military logistics in southern Ukraine.

tr48

ISIS operative claims 2015 Ankara bombing was unauthorized, alleges contacts with Turkish government

Senior ISIS operative Ömer Deniz Dündar, a defendant in the 2015 Ankara train station bombing case, told investigators that the attack which killed 109 people was initiated by a local commander without ISIS leadership authorization, during a period of alleged indirect negotiations between ISIS and Turkish authorities. Dündar also revealed assassination plots against Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, American pastor Andrew Brunson, and LGBTQ communities. The claims revive longstanding allegations of Turkish intelligence (MİT) links to ISIS operatives, including İlhami Balı, who allegedly met with MİT officers. Dündar described a network called the 'Faruk Office' coordinating ISIS cells across Turkey, the Caucasus, Kosovo, and Europe.

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Senior ISIS operative Ömer Deniz Dündar, a defendant in the 2015 Ankara train station bombing case, told investigators that the attack which killed 109 people was initiated by a local commander without ISIS leadership authorization, during a period of alleged indirect negotiations between ISIS and Turkish authorities. Dündar also revealed assassination plots against Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, American pastor Andrew Brunson, and LGBTQ communities. The claims revive longstanding allegations of Turkish intelligence (MİT) links to ISIS operatives, including İlhami Balı, who allegedly met with MİT officers. Dündar described a network called the 'Faruk Office' coordinating ISIS cells across Turkey, the Caucasus, Kosovo, and Europe.

fr48

June 2026 European heatwave breaks records, attributed to climate change

A severe June heatwave across Europe has broken temperature records in the UK and France, with the UK recording 37.3°C in Suffolk and France reaching 44.3°C in the southwest. The World Weather Attribution group found the event would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change, making such extremes up to 200 times more likely than two decades ago. The heatwave has caused at least 55 drownings in France, school closures, hospital critical incidents, and event cancellations including Paris Pride and a Dutch music festival. The heatwave is moving eastward toward Germany and the Balkans.

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A severe June heatwave across Europe has broken temperature records in the UK and France, with the UK recording 37.3°C in Suffolk and France reaching 44.3°C in the southwest. The World Weather Attribution group found the event would have been virtually impossible without human-caused climate change, making such extremes up to 200 times more likely than two decades ago. The heatwave has caused at least 55 drownings in France, school closures, hospital critical incidents, and event cancellations including Paris Pride and a Dutch music festival. The heatwave is moving eastward toward Germany and the Balkans.

ua48

Zelenskyy says Ukraine's Crimea operation is carefully calculated and could force Russia to peace with Western help

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine's strike campaign against occupied Crimea is 'carefully calculated' and that with the right Western support, Kyiv could quickly force Russia toward peace. He cited intelligence showing Russian assessments of deep strikes causing pain, including the destruction of 6,000 tonnes of ammunition near St. Petersburg and hits on missile-component plants. Russia is reportedly moving air defense systems to protect Moscow and the Kerch bridge, exposing vulnerabilities elsewhere. The campaign has caused fuel shortages across more than 60 Russian regions and raised doubts about the Kremlin's ability to hold September elections.

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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine's strike campaign against occupied Crimea is 'carefully calculated' and that with the right Western support, Kyiv could quickly force Russia toward peace. He cited intelligence showing Russian assessments of deep strikes causing pain, including the destruction of 6,000 tonnes of ammunition near St. Petersburg and hits on missile-component plants. Russia is reportedly moving air defense systems to protect Moscow and the Kerch bridge, exposing vulnerabilities elsewhere. The campaign has caused fuel shortages across more than 60 Russian regions and raised doubts about the Kremlin's ability to hold September elections.

de48

Germany's unprecedented June heatwave reveals severe climate adaptation gaps and billions in economic losses

Germany is experiencing its hottest June on record, with temperatures reaching 40°C. The heatwave has exposed the country's inadequate climate adaptation, including poor building insulation, lack of air conditioning in hospitals and nursing homes, and disproportionate impacts on urban populations. A study by Allianz warns of up to €120 billion in economic losses from 2026-2030 due to reduced productivity, increased sick leave, and higher energy costs. The WHO reports over 200,000 heat-related deaths in Europe in the past four years. Local governments lack funding for adaptation measures, and experts call for heat to be treated as a permanent economic policy challenge.

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Germany is experiencing its hottest June on record, with temperatures reaching 40°C. The heatwave has exposed the country's inadequate climate adaptation, including poor building insulation, lack of air conditioning in hospitals and nursing homes, and disproportionate impacts on urban populations. A study by Allianz warns of up to €120 billion in economic losses from 2026-2030 due to reduced productivity, increased sick leave, and higher energy costs. The WHO reports over 200,000 heat-related deaths in Europe in the past four years. Local governments lack funding for adaptation measures, and experts call for heat to be treated as a permanent economic policy challenge.