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Global Briefing June 5

Europe Steps In as Zelensky Proposes Putin Talks, Iran Strikes Kuwait

The week's defining architecture emerged on June 5: a 7 June London summit where Macron, Starmer and Merz will meet Zelenskyy marks Europe's most assertive diplomatic step since US-led peace initiatives stalled, while a US-Iran tentative MOU for a 60-day ceasefire extension coexists with Iranian strikes on Kuwait airport that killed one. The WFP confirmed the Iran war is driving 45 million more people into acute hunger, Russia doubled its RM-48U ballistic missile output from 200 to 480 per year, and Hungary finally lifted its two-year veto on the EU's 6.6 billion euro Ukraine air defense package.

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us · United States

Trump Can't End Iran War, So He Changes Subject

This was the week the Iran war stopped being a foreign-policy story for Americans and became a domestic one: inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2%, petrol is up 39% since the fighting began, and a hundred days in the average household is $750 poorer. The economy is somehow still adding jobs. But unable to end the war that is driving the prices, the president spent the week fighting on every other front instead — his own last election, naturalised citizens, China, and the spy law that briefs him each morning.

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gb · United Kingdom

Britain Runs Out of Money for Defence and Order

John Healey's resignation as defence secretary was not an ordinary reshuffle: he walked out accusing Keir Starmer and the Treasury of refusing to pay for Britain's defence at the most dangerous moment since the Cold War, the week the entire fleet of attack submarines sat in dock. And as the state struggled to fund the things that keep a country safe abroad, it was visibly losing its grip on order at home — the Henry Nowak murder, riots in Belfast, a stabbing in a Manchester school. A government is meant to be able to do both. This one, this week, could do neither.

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fr · France

Lyhanna Murder Puts French State on Trial

The killing of 11-year-old Lyhanna did what no ordinary political crisis had managed: it put the French state itself in the dock. Her suspected killer had been accused of raping a 10-year-old the previous August and was never questioned. More than 60,000 people marched; the justice minister apologised and ordered a review of 70,000 abuse cases while refusing to resign; the far right demanded his head. Abroad, France was helping lead the diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. At home, it could not protect a child it had been warned about.

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de · Germany

Merz Bets Germany's Future on Autonomy as US Pulls 5,000 Troops

Friedrich Merz has made his choice: a Germany less dependent on an America it no longer trusts. This week he absorbed the loss of 5,000 US troops pulled out over his criticism of the Iran war, killed the €100bn FCAS fighter jet with France, and offered Ukraine a seat inside the EU. It is a coherent bet on strategic autonomy. The catch is that the costs are arriving at home — a suspected extremist arson that blacked out 40,000 homes, and a record 85,837 politically motivated crimes — before the autonomy does.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Offers to Freeze War by Escalating Strikes

Ukraine spent the week doing two things that only look contradictory: offering to freeze the war and fighting it harder than ever. Zelenskyy signalled he would accept halting the conflict along the current front line, and Europe lined up behind him. At the same time his long-range drones set Russia's fuel system alight, spreading petrol shortages to 25 regions. The escalation is not at odds with the peace offer — it is what gives the offer its weight. Whether Moscow ever picks it up depends less on the talks than on how dry Russia's pumps run.

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tr · Turkey

Erdoğan Declares Turkey a 'Playmaker' at Security Conference

Erdoğan spent the week looking indispensable to the world — mediating between Washington and Tehran, branding Turkey a regional 'playmaker', and savaging Netanyahu over Gaza. It is real influence, and it has a domestic use. The more the West needs Ankara, the freer his hand at home, where he has jailed his strongest rival and hundreds of opposition officials and will host NATO's leaders next month behind 40,000 security personnel. The same assertiveness that makes Turkey useful to Washington also had its jets harassing European defence ministers off Cyprus.

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Day in Review

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Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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ua98

Zelensky sends open letter to Putin proposing immediate ceasefire and direct bilateral talks

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on June 4 sent an open letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin proposing an immediate ceasefire along the existing frontline and a face-to-face bilateral meeting in a neutral third country. The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian officials simultaneously used the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum to project a facade of economic stability while bypassing public acknowledgment of actual fuel shortages and domestic strain. The letter followed by one day Zelensky's public statement of readiness for direct talks, as Russian forces overnight launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 293 drones against Ukrainian territory.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on June 4 sent an open letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin proposing an immediate ceasefire along the existing frontline and a face-to-face bilateral meeting in a neutral third country. The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian officials simultaneously used the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum to project a facade of economic stability while bypassing public acknowledgment of actual fuel shortages and domestic strain. The letter followed by one day Zelensky's public statement of readiness for direct talks, as Russian forces overnight launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 293 drones against Ukrainian territory.

fr95

E3 leaders to meet Zelenskyy at Downing Street on 7 June as Europe steps into Ukraine peace diplomacy

French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will hold a trilateral summit at Downing Street on Sunday 7 June starting at 18:30, with Zelenskyy joining one hour later. The Elysee Palace said the summit would focus on continuing coordination to support Ukraine and increase pressure on Russia, including progress on the Coalition of the Willing, whose next plenary France will host in Paris on 13-14 July. The meeting follows Zelenskyy's June 4 open letter to Putin proposing a ceasefire and direct talks, and comes as US-led peace efforts have stalled -- Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis said at an EU summit in Montenegro that Europe must now take on the role of ending the war.

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French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will hold a trilateral summit at Downing Street on Sunday 7 June starting at 18:30, with Zelenskyy joining one hour later. The Elysee Palace said the summit would focus on continuing coordination to support Ukraine and increase pressure on Russia, including progress on the Coalition of the Willing, whose next plenary France will host in Paris on 13-14 July. The meeting follows Zelenskyy's June 4 open letter to Putin proposing a ceasefire and direct talks, and comes as US-led peace efforts have stalled -- Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis said at an EU summit in Montenegro that Europe must now take on the role of ending the war.

us95

WFP: 45 million more people face acute hunger as Iran war drives global food and cost crisis

The UN World Food Programme confirmed on June 5 that its pessimistic March projections are materialising: the US-Israeli war on Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, driven oil prices above $100 per barrel and is pushing an estimated 45 million more people into acute hunger on top of the 320 million already food insecure globally. WFP director Jean-Martin Bauer told AFP the agency will now serve 1.5 million fewer people in 2026 than planned and warned that if the conflict lasts six months, more than nine million could lose food assistance -- with Somalia facing a pipeline break next month that would leave no food for distribution in a country already at famine risk in one district. "What is shaping up is the return of a global cost of living crisis of the likes that we experienced in 2022," Bauer said, adding the humanitarian system is now caught in a double squeeze of rising needs and rising delivery costs, weakened by aid funding cuts since the Trump administration took office.

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The UN World Food Programme confirmed on June 5 that its pessimistic March projections are materialising: the US-Israeli war on Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, driven oil prices above $100 per barrel and is pushing an estimated 45 million more people into acute hunger on top of the 320 million already food insecure globally. WFP director Jean-Martin Bauer told AFP the agency will now serve 1.5 million fewer people in 2026 than planned and warned that if the conflict lasts six months, more than nine million could lose food assistance -- with Somalia facing a pipeline break next month that would leave no food for distribution in a country already at famine risk in one district. "What is shaping up is the return of a global cost of living crisis of the likes that we experienced in 2022," Bauer said, adding the humanitarian system is now caught in a double squeeze of rising needs and rising delivery costs, weakened by aid funding cuts since the Trump administration took office.

ua95

Russia more than doubles production of converted SAMs for ballistic missile strikes, straining Ukrainian air defense

Russia has more than doubled production of RM-48U missiles, converted from S-300/S-400 air defense missiles into surface-to-surface ballistic weapons, according to Ukraine's General Intelligence Directorate (GUR). The GUR told Ukrainska Pravda that RM-48U output rose from 200 in 2025 to a projected 480 in 2026, with a monthly build rate of up to 50. These inaccurate, low-payload missiles are designed to saturate Ukrainian air defenses and force the use of scarce PAC-3 or Aster-30 interceptors.

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Russia has more than doubled production of RM-48U missiles, converted from S-300/S-400 air defense missiles into surface-to-surface ballistic weapons, according to Ukraine's General Intelligence Directorate (GUR). The GUR told Ukrainska Pravda that RM-48U output rose from 200 in 2025 to a projected 480 in 2026, with a monthly build rate of up to 50. These inaccurate, low-payload missiles are designed to saturate Ukrainian air defenses and force the use of scarce PAC-3 or Aster-30 interceptors.

de95

Germany at 100 days: how Merz went from backing US strikes on Iran to drawing Trump's anger

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has completed a public about-face on the US-Israeli war against Iran, moving from an initial posture that avoided calling the February 28 strikes a violation of international law and described Iran as a "terrorist regime" to a late-April declaration that the US had "no convincing strategy" -- drawing a furious Truth Social response from President Trump and triggering the announced withdrawal of 5,000 US troops from Germany and the cancellation of a planned Tomahawk cruise missile deployment. The shift tracked Germany's domestic exposure: the Hormuz closure spiked energy costs and stifled an already weak economy, Merz's approval ratings fell, the AfD moved ahead of CDU/CSU in polls, and an ARD Deutschlandtrend survey found 58 percent of Germans considered the US-Israeli action unjustified. Political scientist Johannes Varwick of Halle University said the 100-day lesson is stark: "Germany and Europe must clearly define their own interests and not stand there like a deer in the headlights."

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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has completed a public about-face on the US-Israeli war against Iran, moving from an initial posture that avoided calling the February 28 strikes a violation of international law and described Iran as a "terrorist regime" to a late-April declaration that the US had "no convincing strategy" -- drawing a furious Truth Social response from President Trump and triggering the announced withdrawal of 5,000 US troops from Germany and the cancellation of a planned Tomahawk cruise missile deployment. The shift tracked Germany's domestic exposure: the Hormuz closure spiked energy costs and stifled an already weak economy, Merz's approval ratings fell, the AfD moved ahead of CDU/CSU in polls, and an ARD Deutschlandtrend survey found 58 percent of Germans considered the US-Israeli action unjustified. Political scientist Johannes Varwick of Halle University said the 100-day lesson is stark: "Germany and Europe must clearly define their own interests and not stand there like a deer in the headlights."

gb95

Starmer calls Farage "unforgivable" after Reform leader's Southampton address triggers violent protest

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage sparked a cross-party backlash and a semi-riot in Southampton after delivering an "emergency address" Tuesday following the murder conviction of Vickrum Digwa, who killed 18-year-old Henry Nowak and then falsely accused Nowak of racism to police, who handcuffed the dying student. Farage described Hampshire police as operating "a two-tier culture in this country, where the rights and privileges of white people matter less than those of ethnic minorities" and called for "pure, cold rage" -- triggering street violence that injured 11 officers and a police dog, with far-right agitator Tommy Robinson present in the crowd. At Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday, Keir Starmer said Nowak's father had explicitly asked that his death not be exploited to create division and that Farage had ignored him -- "It shows exactly who he is" -- while polling analyst Luke Tryl of More in Common warned the rhetoric risked alienating moderate voters and that even a 3-4 percent share for Rupert Lowe's rival Restore Britain party could cost Reform around 80 seats.

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Reform UK leader Nigel Farage sparked a cross-party backlash and a semi-riot in Southampton after delivering an "emergency address" Tuesday following the murder conviction of Vickrum Digwa, who killed 18-year-old Henry Nowak and then falsely accused Nowak of racism to police, who handcuffed the dying student. Farage described Hampshire police as operating "a two-tier culture in this country, where the rights and privileges of white people matter less than those of ethnic minorities" and called for "pure, cold rage" -- triggering street violence that injured 11 officers and a police dog, with far-right agitator Tommy Robinson present in the crowd. At Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday, Keir Starmer said Nowak's father had explicitly asked that his death not be exploited to create division and that Farage had ignored him -- "It shows exactly who he is" -- while polling analyst Luke Tryl of More in Common warned the rhetoric risked alienating moderate voters and that even a 3-4 percent share for Rupert Lowe's rival Restore Britain party could cost Reform around 80 seats.

tr95

Erdogan uses Turkey's NATO summit hosting to insulate domestic crackdown from Western pressure

Erdogan is deploying Turkey's hosting of the July 7-8 NATO summit in Ankara -- where US President Trump is expected -- as geopolitical cover for the government's legal campaign against the main opposition CHP, with Western governments privately opposing the proceedings but publicly confining Ankara visits to defence-sector briefings at firms such as TUSAS and ASELSAN. Ekrem Imamoglu remains detained; case files against CHP leader Ozgur Ozel from Istanbul and Antalya are reportedly being consolidated in Ankara, and a political atmosphere has formed where further moves against Ozel or Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas would be met with domestic resignation and muted Western response. DEVA leader Ali Babacan called the situation "very bitter for democracy"; on June 4, Ozel was photographed in a warm handshake with MHP's Devlet Bahceli at the Koc Group 100th anniversary gala, a moment analysts read as part of the same pressure dynamic in which Ozel faces prosecution or accommodation.

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Erdogan is deploying Turkey's hosting of the July 7-8 NATO summit in Ankara -- where US President Trump is expected -- as geopolitical cover for the government's legal campaign against the main opposition CHP, with Western governments privately opposing the proceedings but publicly confining Ankara visits to defence-sector briefings at firms such as TUSAS and ASELSAN. Ekrem Imamoglu remains detained; case files against CHP leader Ozgur Ozel from Istanbul and Antalya are reportedly being consolidated in Ankara, and a political atmosphere has formed where further moves against Ozel or Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavas would be met with domestic resignation and muted Western response. DEVA leader Ali Babacan called the situation "very bitter for democracy"; on June 4, Ozel was photographed in a warm handshake with MHP's Devlet Bahceli at the Koc Group 100th anniversary gala, a moment analysts read as part of the same pressure dynamic in which Ozel faces prosecution or accommodation.

us92

Iran strikes Kuwait airport, US says missiles intercepted; both sides signal readiness for force

Iranian missiles and drones struck Kuwait's international airport on Wednesday, killing one Indian national and injuring others, according to state news agency KUNA. US Central Command said several Iranian ballistic missiles aimed at Kuwait fell short or were intercepted, and that no US personnel or assets were harmed in Kuwait or Bahrain. The attack followed US strikes on Iranian radar and drone sites and came as Washington and Tehran continue ceasefire talks brokered by Pakistan.

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Iranian missiles and drones struck Kuwait's international airport on Wednesday, killing one Indian national and injuring others, according to state news agency KUNA. US Central Command said several Iranian ballistic missiles aimed at Kuwait fell short or were intercepted, and that no US personnel or assets were harmed in Kuwait or Bahrain. The attack followed US strikes on Iranian radar and drone sites and came as Washington and Tehran continue ceasefire talks brokered by Pakistan.

ua92

Hungary lifts final veto on €6.6 billion EU air defense package for Ukraine

Hungary has dropped its final veto on a €6.6 billion ($7.6 billion) EU support package for Ukraine, clearing the way for funding to strengthen air defenses against Russian attacks, the Hungarian newspaper Népszava reported on Friday. EU ambassadors have already approved the use of the European Peace Facility for Ukraine, ending a two-year blockade by Budapest. The next step is for the European External Action Service to prepare the legal framework before member states give final approval.

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Hungary has dropped its final veto on a €6.6 billion ($7.6 billion) EU support package for Ukraine, clearing the way for funding to strengthen air defenses against Russian attacks, the Hungarian newspaper Népszava reported on Friday. EU ambassadors have already approved the use of the European Peace Facility for Ukraine, ending a two-year blockade by Budapest. The next step is for the European External Action Service to prepare the legal framework before member states give final approval.

fr90

French PM convenes emergency meeting after body of missing girl found; judicial failures under scrutiny

French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu summoned the interior and justice ministers on Friday to address the case of 11-year-old Lyhanna, whose body was found in an abandoned silo near Fleurance on Thursday after she went missing on May 29. The suspect, a 41-year-old father of a classmate, had been the subject of three prior sexual assault complaints that were either dropped or stalled. The case has sparked nationwide outcry over judicial missteps and missed opportunities to intervene.

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French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu summoned the interior and justice ministers on Friday to address the case of 11-year-old Lyhanna, whose body was found in an abandoned silo near Fleurance on Thursday after she went missing on May 29. The suspect, a 41-year-old father of a classmate, had been the subject of three prior sexual assault complaints that were either dropped or stalled. The case has sparked nationwide outcry over judicial missteps and missed opportunities to intervene.