Nowadays, the single-unit capacity of land and land wind turbines has frequently set industry records. With the obvious acceleration of large-scale wind turbines, is it really safe?

In 2023, the process of large-scale China's land and land wind turbines will accelerate again. The single-unit capacity of onshore wind turbines will exceed 10 MW. Among offshore wind turbines, 16 MW equipment has been mass-produced, and 18 MW and 20 MW wind turbines are also ready to go. The wind power industry is accelerating into the era of large-scale expansion.

From the average single unit capacity of onshore wind turbines on the market in 2020 being less than 3 MW, and the average single unit capacity of offshore wind turbines being less than 5 MW, to today's single unit capacity of onshore and land wind turbines frequently sets the highest in the industry, and the large-scale acceleration is obviously accelerating. Is it really safe?

The new product investment cycle has been significantly shortened

The "Development Situation and Situation Outlook of China's Power Generation Equipment Industry in 2023"(hereinafter referred to as the "Outlook") released by the Machinery Industry Power Generation Equipment Center shows that in 2023, the national wind turbine output will be 79.699 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 39.7%, setting a new record high., the average single-unit capacity of wind turbines has further increased, and the iteration speed of wind turbines has accelerated significantly.

Other industry data shows that from 2012 to 2020, the average single-unit capacity of new domestic land and sea wind turbines showed a steady increase. With the arrival of the era of wind power parity, the pressure on wind power cost reduction has increased, and the large-scale wind turbines has become the main cost reduction path. Attention from many parties, the average single-unit capacity of new wind turbines has increased rapidly.

以海上风电为例，2022年，新增海上风电机组平均单机容量达到7.4兆瓦，同比增加1.8兆瓦；2022年新增吊装的海上风电机型中，8兆瓦至9兆瓦风电机组占比高达43.9%。 In the past year, domestic mainstream complete machine manufacturers are still accelerating their large-scale strategy, and wind turbines with a single unit capacity of 20 MW are on the horizon.

The unexpected large-scale momentum has caused industry concerns. Statistics from "Outlook" show that the average single unit capacity of wind turbines has further increased, but the price of wind turbines has been falling. In the fourth quarter of last year, the price of onshore wind turbines fell below 1000 yuan/kilowatt (excluding towers). At the same time, the corresponding manufacturing molds were updated, but the company's R & D and manufacturing costs continued to rise, and they were put into use without full verification. When used, the product is likely to have quality risks.

Pay attention to the potential risks of using new products

What steps do new products need to go through from research and development to formal mass production and commissioning?

"There are two main links in the testing and verification of new wind turbine products. According to international and domestic standards, key large components such as blades, gearboxes, generators, and converters must first be tested. After the whole machine is assembled, on-site prototype testing is carried out, including safety and functional testing, mechanical load testing, and power Characteristic testing, noise testing, etc., in addition to grid-connected performance testing based on network-related technical standards. After completing all test items and passing type certification, it is best to have a verification of small-batch production and operation, so that the performance, quality and safety of large-batch production and operation of wind turbines can be guaranteed." Cai Jifeng, director of the Wind Energy Research Institute of Beijing Jianheng Certification Center, said in an interview with a reporter from China Energy News,"Depending on different test contents, the time required for each link ranges from a few months to half a year."

“然而，从目前市场情况来看，很多新产品在投入市场前并没有完整地开展样机测试、型式认证及小批量验证，” 蔡继峰坦言，“部分整机厂商在投标时推出的新机组产品可能仅通过了设计评估，在中标后完成批量交付的风电场才进行样机测试，这对风电场安全运营和投资收益都会带来潜在风险， In particular, the rapid development of large-scale wind turbines has entered a technical "no man's land", and the risk of lack of test and verification should be paid more attention to。”

The reporter learned that in the past few years, related accidents such as wind turbine fires, loss of control, and tower collapse have occurred frequently. More statistics show that the number of failure accidents such as converters and gearboxes is on the rise. Although the accident rate has not increased significantly in the industry, with the large-scale development of wind power, potential safety issues have also attracted much attention.

"When new products that have not been fully verified enter the market, once systemic problems such as design arise, large-scale rectification of batches of products will be required. This will not only generate high rectification costs, but also cause serious losses in power generation, and it is more likely to exist. Potential personal equipment safety risks." Cai Jifeng added.

All parties should cooperate to strictly abide by "quality control"

From the industry's perspective, when wind power lights up thousands of homes, technology application should also be more cautious. Although large-scale wind turbines is an important means to reduce costs, it should not be blindly promoted when promoting new products to enter the market.

** Previously, many domestic wind turbine manufacturers have publicly pointed out that the large-scale wind turbines is not a simple way to increase power on the basis of the past, but requires innovative breakthroughs in materials, design and other fields. China's wind turbine technology has gradually entered "no man's land". At a time when there is a lack of experience to learn from and continuous breakthroughs in technological boundaries, strictly adhering to product quality has become the key to China's wind turbines going further and more stably. **

In the "Outlook", the Machinery Industry Power Generation Equipment Center also recommended that government departments pay attention to the potential risks brought by the rapid iteration of wind turbines, fully investigate whether various links in the industrial chain such as large component production and manufacturing capabilities, material tolerance capabilities, and supporting transportation capabilities match, and improve The test verification standards for the safety and reliability of large-scale unit prototypes reasonably control the pace of construction of large wind turbines, and promote high-quality development of the wind power industry.

In Cai Jifeng's view, if the wind power industry can continue to develop with high quality, concerted efforts are needed from all parties. "For equipment manufacturers, they should be calm, adhere to the bottom line of quality, and improve product reliability and technical economy; for developers, they should further strictly control the requirements for wind turbine type certification during the project bidding and evaluation process., especially when it comes to the application of new technologies and adaptability assessment for specific project sites, the focus should be on inspection and verification. At the same time, the competent authorities also need to introduce relevant management measures as soon as possible in response to the equipment quality risks that may be brought by low-price competition to promote the high-quality and healthy development of the wind power industry."

original title:Speed up of large-scale wind turbines