At present, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has broken out for 777 days. The Russian military's offensive direction is still concentrated in two directions:

The first is the front from Umansk to Netrav (Netelov) in Avdivka (Avdeyevka). As Pervomysk was captured by the Russian army, the Russian army was exerting tremendous pressure on Umansk and Netraf, and gradually forming a favorable situation of multi-directional attacks. It seems that this round of Russian attacks will inevitably be to reach the Wofcha River barrier;

The second is Chasovar. From north to south, the Russian army is equipped with the 200th Mob Brigade of the 14th Army of the Northern Fleet, the 331st Regiment of the 98th Airborne Division and the 11th Airborne Assault Brigade, forming three offensive routes that fully point to the Donets Ridge and the top Donbas Canal. Of course, as more Russian military names are still hidden in the fog, the outside world doubts whether the Russian military has the second echelon development results. Whether the Russian military has plans to break through the Donets Ridge remains to be seen.

In addition to battlefield battles, the word "negotiation" was the most discussed by everyone during this period. First, at the end of last month, in an interview with "Colombia Broadcasting Corporation"(CBS), Ukraine President Zelensky changed for the first time his original attitude of refusing to negotiate with Russia and saying that he "can also have a talk" with Russia. After the news was reprinted by RT, it quickly sparked heated discussions on the domestic Internet. For some reason, it became "Zelensky asked for negotiations." In addition, countries such as Switzerland and Turkey also urgently followed suit, saying that they could convene a Ukraine peace conference or provide a venue for Russia-Ukraine negotiations.

Another piece of heavy news came from Trump, the "Know the King". On April 7, the Washington Post quoted sources close to Trump as saying that Trump had privately formed a plan to return to the White House., pressure will be put on Ukraine to give up part of its territory to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The latest news is that British Foreign Minister David Cameron visited Trump specifically, hoping that Trump would use his influence among Republicans to "release" the United States '$60 billion aid plan for Ukraine. However, he was unsurprisingly hit by a slap. The lobbying yielded no results.

How to view these peace talks

Did Zelensky really ask for "negotiation"? Countries such as Switzerland are willing to "negotiate peace talks"? Trump announced that he would "pressure" Ukraine to give up its land? The Russia-Ukraine conflict ended just like that? Big Ivan actually wanted to write an article specifically to express his views for a long time, especially since many people in China are following suit. In our opinion, none of these three are reliable.:

Let's talk about Zelensky first. Zelensky's statement in an interview with CBS was very clear. His so-called talk to Russia actually had preconditions. The prerequisite was that "Russia first withdraws its borders before the outbreak of the conflict in 2022." In other words, everything should first return to the status quo before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The original line of control on the Crimean Peninsula and Donetsk and Luhansk regions should remain unchanged, and then we can "negotiate" with Russia.

This kind of appeal, not to mention that Russia is not "leading good people", why should it retreat to the 2022 line of control when the existing front line is very solid and the Ukrainian army cannot fight? Taking Zelensky's criminal record of reneging on his word as an example, if Russia really returns to the front line on February 24, 2022, Zelensky's biggest possibility is that he will turn his face faster than a book and will not mention "negotiation". Instead, he preached that "I persuaded 600,000 Russian troops to withdraw with one mouth. Next, let's see how I lead the Ukrainian army to drive the Russian troops out of all of Ukraine."

After all, Zelensky really did just that in March 2022, taking Russia's sincerity in negotiations as his own credit, directly reducing the trust between Russia and Ukraine to zero. Under such circumstances, it is impossible for Russia to negotiate such conditions with Zelensky. I am not a fool. If you ask me to withdraw from the land I have won, I will withdraw? What conditions can you exchange for me? How can I be sure that your so-called negotiations are really about talking to me and not a new round of Kiev fraud?

Therefore, Zelensky's statement of "negotiation" was simply not worth refuting, and Zelensky followed behind and cried to CBS that if the United States did not give me US$60 billion, I would negotiate/withdraw... So, Zelensky's real demand was to continue to beg for food based on his ability, and all negotiations were just rhetoric.

The so-called negotiations organized by Switzerland and Turkey are actually not worth mentioning. The basis of the negotiations organized by Switzerland is Zelensky's so-called "peace formula" plan. What should we say about this plan? It's very magical realism. Those who don't understand this plan will think that Russia has been "invaded by the NATO coalition forces at the foot of Moscow and will soon be demilitarized to support the puppet regime"...

Ukraine Foreign Minister Kuleba also said with great confidence that the "peace formula" plan is like a menu where any country in the world can find its own solution. This particularly "unpredictable" statement perfectly proves how Ukraine, a country, has become such a bird.

Therefore, when the negotiations organized by Switzerland were based on Zelensky's "peace formula" and in fact discussed how to make Russia "compensate for defeat and eat everything", let alone Russia would not care about such negotiations. Most countries would not really take this negotiation seriously. In fact, the negotiation organized by Switzerland reflects the current situation in Europe in a sense. It is clear that it is a "group of poor households" and still feels particularly good about itself.

To use another Soviet joke, the Swiss peace talks mainly studied two issues:The first problem was to beat Russia until it knelt down and begged for mercy. The second problem was to divide Russia up on the basis of Russia's begging for mercy. However, when the first goal could not be achieved, they were forced to skip the first question and directly study the second question... If we describe it in this way, what do we mean by this "peace negotiation" in Switzerland, and how much quality it is.

As for Trump's thoughts, how should I put it? It is completely full of American optimism and naivety. We can only say that all negotiations are nothing more than a process of exchanging interests. The most strategic benefit Trump can provide to Russia is a ceasefire on the existing Line of Actual Control, and perhaps with a lifting of sanctions (but can be added back at any time), Russia can formally incorporate the territory it has now taken into Russian territory.

But Russia's lost strategic benefits include:Strategic mutual trust with the United States and Europe has dropped to zero and will not be restored for many years to come. Once trouble arises, the lifted sanctions are likely to be added back. At the same time, the rest of Ukraine will inevitably join NATO and rearm under NATO guidance. NATO's military base will appear openly on the outskirts of Donetsk, possibly in Slavyansk.

Looking at it from this perspective, the benefits paid and exchanged by Trump and Russia are not equal at all. Russia has only gained the existing territory, but it has paid for Ukraine to join NATO. The surrounding geographical environment has greatly deteriorated. Outside the Donetsk Gate, its heavy industry base, even Kharkiv has the price of a NATO military base. Anyone with discerning eyes can tell which is more important.

At the same time, on a deeper level, according to Trump's plan, the benefits Russia can get are the benefits it has already actually gotten. Trump just made a mark and said that the United States has admitted it. Such recognition can still be regretted at any time. Isn't this equivalent to another form of empty gloves and white wolf? Taking the benefits Russia actually obtained in exchange for Russia's life, what do you think Russia has gained?

So if a fool like Gorbachev was on stage, Trump might have agreed to his terms, but if it were any other leader, you might as well "buy a piece of tofu and kill yourself" if you expect him to agree.

How to view these peace talks

Therefore, the recent news about the Russia-Ukraine peace talks, Big Ivan feels that you should regard it as the outside world's good wish for an early resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Negotiations are impossible.

For Russia, there is no need to rush now. Even if we don't talk about it now, if Ukraine continues to fight like this, it will eventually collapse. By that time, Russia will take whatever it wants and take whatever it wants; For NATO, it cannot be discussed now. After all, the tiger cannot be defeated. Now that too many benefits are transferred to Russia, Biden will not think about voting in 2024. Even the significance of NATO itself will be widely questioned. NATO's current attitude must be to wait and see again, at least to get past this year's U.S. election.

Moreover, Russia cannot accept the negotiation conditions proposed by NATO now. However, in Ivan's view, Ata's words are very vivid,"NATO chose to put it down between stud and surrender." Judging from the recent intensive statements by NATO leaders that Russia will not be allowed to win, and NATO spokespersons have said that Russia will have no military equipment in 2025 and the war situation can be reversed, it seems that NATO is really planning to recite Russia to death. If this goes on, be careful that you will lose all your pants left.

Finally, to talk about the cruel reality, Big Ivan believes that the current Russia-Ukraine relations are very similar to the Second and Third Punic Wars. In the Second Punic War, Carthage was beaten badly by the Roman Republic and could hardly be reversed. However, Rome still did not let Carthage go. 52 years later, it launched the Third Punic War and completely destroyed Carthage.

Judging from the current trend of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, if NATO refuses to make a major effort in Ukraine or even abandons the existence of other strategic directions for this reason, the consequence of this round of Ukrainian conflict is likely to be that Ukraine will be completely de-functional as a country, and then in the future. Due to extreme weakness in several years, it will be completely swallowed by Russia... What post-war revival and what embodies Ukrainian national consciousness are all false.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has nakedly demonstrated to us the reality of how a medium-sized country has led itself to a dead end and to the point of death and destruction of the country despite continuous decision-making mistakes.

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