Energy consulting firm Wood Mackenzie analyzed in a recently released report that as pressure to reduce carbon emissions increases and gasoline margins decline, more than 5/1 of the world's refining capacity is at risk of shutting down.

Previously, Wood Mackenzie also proposed that in order to achieve net-zero emissions, it is necessary to rapidly expand the scale of mining of metal and mineral resources to meet the growing demand for clean energy technologies such as electric vehicles, batteries, solar photovoltaic panels, and wind turbines, and promote energy transformation.

Wood Mackenzie analyzed that at present, low-carbon and green development in the low-carbon power and transportation industries has increased the demand for metals. To approach the global net zero goal, we must continue to develop renewable energy technologies and popularize electric vehicles, which also pose challenges to the metals and mining industries. Renewable energy is highly dependent on mineral supply. Without a stable supply of raw materials and metals, energy transformation cannot be achieved. In addition, steel is an important factor in clean energy technologies such as electric vehicles and wind turbines, but the steel industry generates approximately 9% of global carbon dioxide emissions, and the cost of decarbonization is US$1.5 trillion. To fully decarbonize the steel industry, a significant increase in renewable energy production and deployment, as well as large-scale carbon capture, utilization and storage, will require more metals. However, at present, metal development is facing problems of insufficient investment and long lead periods. Coupled with the lagging of relevant skills and capabilities, it is still unable to meet net zero demand.

Wood Mackenzie said that to achieve net zero emissions, countries around the world must jointly coordinate and promote energy transformation and development. At present, in terms of policy, although there are effective driving factors such as the framework of the Conference of the Parties, there are also factors that are not conducive to development. National carbon regimes are different and disconnected from each other, and the consistency of global carbon-related regimes and environmental regulations must be improved. At the same time, focus on key mineral processing and promote supply chain diversification.

In terms of technology, sodium-ion batteries with higher energy density are being promoted and used in the fields of energy storage systems and low-mileage electric vehicles. It is expected that a new generation of batteries with smaller size and lighter weight will be widely used by around 2030. In terms of resource recycling, although society advocates waste recycling, there are still problems such as low collection, degradation, and recycling efficiency, cost and supporting policies. Recycling will not substantially change the current or next cycle's basic raw material investment needs. At the same time, affected by prices and markets, investors pay more attention to short-term returns and curb investment momentum.

(China Mining News)

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