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Global Briefing May 1

Iran War at 60 Days: $25B Cost, Hormuz Crisis, No End

The US-Israeli war on Iran reached 60 days with no resolution as Tehran rejected the US-amended peace plan and the Pentagon priced the campaign at $25 billion. Russia ran the war's largest daytime drone barrage — 409 UAVs, 388 intercepted — as Ukraine struck the Tuapse and Perm refineries; Hormuz traffic stayed down 90 percent with 20,000 seafarers stranded. Major central banks held rates but signalled hikes; US gas hit $4.30. Mercosur–EU entered into force and Aung San Suu Kyi moved to house arrest.

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us · United States

Trump Can't End Iran War, So He Changes Subject

This was the week the Iran war stopped being a foreign-policy story for Americans and became a domestic one: inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2%, petrol is up 39% since the fighting began, and a hundred days in the average household is $750 poorer. The economy is somehow still adding jobs. But unable to end the war that is driving the prices, the president spent the week fighting on every other front instead — his own last election, naturalised citizens, China, and the spy law that briefs him each morning.

Weekly brief
gb · United Kingdom

Britain Runs Out of Money for Defence and Order

John Healey's resignation as defence secretary was not an ordinary reshuffle: he walked out accusing Keir Starmer and the Treasury of refusing to pay for Britain's defence at the most dangerous moment since the Cold War, the week the entire fleet of attack submarines sat in dock. And as the state struggled to fund the things that keep a country safe abroad, it was visibly losing its grip on order at home — the Henry Nowak murder, riots in Belfast, a stabbing in a Manchester school. A government is meant to be able to do both. This one, this week, could do neither.

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fr · France

Lyhanna Murder Puts French State on Trial

The killing of 11-year-old Lyhanna did what no ordinary political crisis had managed: it put the French state itself in the dock. Her suspected killer had been accused of raping a 10-year-old the previous August and was never questioned. More than 60,000 people marched; the justice minister apologised and ordered a review of 70,000 abuse cases while refusing to resign; the far right demanded his head. Abroad, France was helping lead the diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. At home, it could not protect a child it had been warned about.

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de · Germany

Merz Bets Germany's Future on Autonomy as US Pulls 5,000 Troops

Friedrich Merz has made his choice: a Germany less dependent on an America it no longer trusts. This week he absorbed the loss of 5,000 US troops pulled out over his criticism of the Iran war, killed the €100bn FCAS fighter jet with France, and offered Ukraine a seat inside the EU. It is a coherent bet on strategic autonomy. The catch is that the costs are arriving at home — a suspected extremist arson that blacked out 40,000 homes, and a record 85,837 politically motivated crimes — before the autonomy does.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Offers to Freeze War by Escalating Strikes

Ukraine spent the week doing two things that only look contradictory: offering to freeze the war and fighting it harder than ever. Zelenskyy signalled he would accept halting the conflict along the current front line, and Europe lined up behind him. At the same time his long-range drones set Russia's fuel system alight, spreading petrol shortages to 25 regions. The escalation is not at odds with the peace offer — it is what gives the offer its weight. Whether Moscow ever picks it up depends less on the talks than on how dry Russia's pumps run.

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tr · Turkey

Erdoğan Declares Turkey a 'Playmaker' at Security Conference

Erdoğan spent the week looking indispensable to the world — mediating between Washington and Tehran, branding Turkey a regional 'playmaker', and savaging Netanyahu over Gaza. It is real influence, and it has a domestic use. The more the West needs Ankara, the freer his hand at home, where he has jailed his strongest rival and hundreds of opposition officials and will host NATO's leaders next month behind 40,000 security personnel. The same assertiveness that makes Turkey useful to Washington also had its jets harassing European defence ministers off Cyprus.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us95

US-Israeli war on Iran enters third month with no decisive outcome in sight

The US-Israeli war on Iran has entered its third month with Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a US naval blockade locked in stalemate, and indirect talks via Pakistani mediators producing no breakthrough. Veteran US negotiators Aaron David Miller and Daniel C. Kurtzer argue in Foreign Policy that the war has handed Tehran tactical setbacks but no strategic defeat, leaving Washington with no good options on the strait or the nuclear file.

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The US-Israeli war on Iran has entered its third month with Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a US naval blockade locked in stalemate, and indirect talks via Pakistani mediators producing no breakthrough. Veteran US negotiators Aaron David Miller and Daniel C. Kurtzer argue in Foreign Policy that the war has handed Tehran tactical setbacks but no strategic defeat, leaving Washington with no good options on the strait or the nuclear file.

ua95

Russia launches 409 drones across Ukraine in daytime barrage; Ukraine strikes Tuapse refinery for fourth time and Perm AVT-4

Russia launched 409 attack UAVs against Ukraine between 08:00 and 15:30 on May 1, the largest single daytime drone attack of the war. Ukrainian air defence shot down or suppressed 388, with 16 confirmed hits at six locations and debris at 11 more. Roughly 250 of the 409 were Shahed-type drones, with the remainder Gerbera, Italmas and other UAVs launched from Shatalovo, Kursk, Oryol, Millerovo and Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia and from Donetsk and Hvardiiske in occupied Crimea. Ternopil was struck by more than 50 Shaheds, with 10 injured and several districts losing power; Odesa and Kharkiv saw strikes on residential buildings and gas stations with multiple injuries. Ukrainian forces struck the Rosneft-owned Tuapse oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai for the fourth time in two weeks, causing a major fire at the marine terminal, and damaged the AVT-4 unit at the Perm refinery. Ukrainian President Zelensky has been pushing the day's drone exchange as part of a defence-export-and-coproduction "Drone Deals" framework tied to ten-year defence agreements with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar.

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Russia launched 409 attack UAVs against Ukraine between 08:00 and 15:30 on May 1, the largest single daytime drone attack of the war. Ukrainian air defence shot down or suppressed 388, with 16 confirmed hits at six locations and debris at 11 more. Roughly 250 of the 409 were Shahed-type drones, with the remainder Gerbera, Italmas and other UAVs launched from Shatalovo, Kursk, Oryol, Millerovo and Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia and from Donetsk and Hvardiiske in occupied Crimea. Ternopil was struck by more than 50 Shaheds, with 10 injured and several districts losing power; Odesa and Kharkiv saw strikes on residential buildings and gas stations with multiple injuries. Ukrainian forces struck the Rosneft-owned Tuapse oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai for the fourth time in two weeks, causing a major fire at the marine terminal, and damaged the AVT-4 unit at the Perm refinery. Ukrainian President Zelensky has been pushing the day's drone exchange as part of a defence-export-and-coproduction "Drone Deals" framework tied to ten-year defence agreements with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar.

tr95

Turkish police arrest nearly 400 in Istanbul May Day crackdown; Workers' Party leader Erkan Bas pepper-sprayed

Turkish police arrested nearly 400 people in Istanbul on May 1 during May Day demonstrations, according to figures from the CHD Lawyers Association cited by AFP, with riot-control vehicles firing tear gas into crowds in the Mecidiyekoey and Besiktas districts. Turkish Workers' Party president Erkan Bas was filmed engulfed in pepper spray; union official Basaran Aksu was arrested moments after denouncing the police lockdown of Taksim Square. Earlier in the week Turkish authorities had issued arrest warrants against 62 people, of whom 46 -- including journalists, trade unionists and opposition figures -- were assessed as "likely to carry out attacks". In Ankara, about 100 coal miners completing a nine-day hunger strike over wage arrears joined the May Day march under heavy police presence. The day's demonstrations were called under the slogan "Bread. Peace. Freedom." Inflation in Turkey is officially measured at 30 percent but is estimated at closer to 40 percent by independent analysts. Last year's May Day protests, which moved to the Kadikoey area after the same Taksim lockdown, also ended with more than 400 arrests.

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Turkish police arrested nearly 400 people in Istanbul on May 1 during May Day demonstrations, according to figures from the CHD Lawyers Association cited by AFP, with riot-control vehicles firing tear gas into crowds in the Mecidiyekoey and Besiktas districts. Turkish Workers' Party president Erkan Bas was filmed engulfed in pepper spray; union official Basaran Aksu was arrested moments after denouncing the police lockdown of Taksim Square. Earlier in the week Turkish authorities had issued arrest warrants against 62 people, of whom 46 -- including journalists, trade unionists and opposition figures -- were assessed as "likely to carry out attacks". In Ankara, about 100 coal miners completing a nine-day hunger strike over wage arrears joined the May Day march under heavy police presence. The day's demonstrations were called under the slogan "Bread. Peace. Freedom." Inflation in Turkey is officially measured at 30 percent but is estimated at closer to 40 percent by independent analysts. Last year's May Day protests, which moved to the Kadikoey area after the same Taksim lockdown, also ended with more than 400 arrests.

ua92

Ukraine confirms drone strike on Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft at Shagol airbase deep inside Russia

Ukraine's General Staff confirmed on May 1 that its Unmanned Systems Forces struck several Su-57 stealth fighters and a Su-34 fighter-bomber at the Shagol airbase in Russia's Chelyabinsk Oblast on April 25, approximately 1,700 km from the Ukrainian border.

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Ukraine's General Staff confirmed on May 1 that its Unmanned Systems Forces struck several Su-57 stealth fighters and a Su-34 fighter-bomber at the Shagol airbase in Russia's Chelyabinsk Oblast on April 25, approximately 1,700 km from the Ukrainian border.

gb92

Royal Navy's UKMTO warns of 'imminent humanitarian crisis' as Hormuz traffic falls 90%, 20,000 seafarers stranded

The Royal Navy's UK Maritime Trade Operations centre warned of an 'imminent humanitarian crisis' in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, reporting traffic has collapsed by more than 90% — fewer than 10 ships a day from 130 before the war — with about 20,000 seafarers stranded on roughly 850-870 vessels at anchor in the Gulf. The UN refugee agency UNHCR reported a 17%+ jump in shipping rates and warned aid operations in Sudan, the Horn of Africa and DRC are increasingly disrupted.

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The Royal Navy's UK Maritime Trade Operations centre warned of an 'imminent humanitarian crisis' in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, reporting traffic has collapsed by more than 90% — fewer than 10 ships a day from 130 before the war — with about 20,000 seafarers stranded on roughly 850-870 vessels at anchor in the Gulf. The UN refugee agency UNHCR reported a 17%+ jump in shipping rates and warned aid operations in Sudan, the Horn of Africa and DRC are increasingly disrupted.

us90

US prosecutors release footage of Trump assassination attempt suspect, deny friendly fire

The Justice Department released video on Thursday showing a man attempting to storm the White House Correspondents' Association dinner to allegedly kill President Donald Trump. US Attorney Jeanine Pirro posted the footage amid speculation that a Secret Service agent was struck by friendly fire, which she and other officials denied.

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The Justice Department released video on Thursday showing a man attempting to storm the White House Correspondents' Association dinner to allegedly kill President Donald Trump. US Attorney Jeanine Pirro posted the footage amid speculation that a Secret Service agent was struck by friendly fire, which she and other officials denied.

ua90

Ukraine strikes Transneft oil hub in Perm, deepens long-range campaign on Russian energy infrastructure

Ukraine has struck a strategically important Transneft oil pumping facility in Perm, 1,600 km from its border, as part of an intensified campaign against Russian oil infrastructure that has reduced export capacity by roughly 40 percent, according to Ukrainian and Reuters estimates.

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Ukraine has struck a strategically important Transneft oil pumping facility in Perm, 1,600 km from its border, as part of an intensified campaign against Russian oil infrastructure that has reduced export capacity by roughly 40 percent, according to Ukrainian and Reuters estimates.

de90

German unions vow 'hard resistance' to Merz coalition's pension and health cuts at May Day rallies

DGB chair Yasmin Fahimi told the central May Day rally in Nuremberg that German unions would mount 'hard resistance' to government plans to cut pensions, statutory health insurance and social benefits, warning of a 'major social conflict' if pension protection levels are touched. Hundreds of rallies took place across Germany under the banner 'first our jobs, then your profits.'

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DGB chair Yasmin Fahimi told the central May Day rally in Nuremberg that German unions would mount 'hard resistance' to government plans to cut pensions, statutory health insurance and social benefits, warning of a 'major social conflict' if pension protection levels are touched. Hundreds of rallies took place across Germany under the banner 'first our jobs, then your profits.'

fr89

TotalEnergies Q1 profits jump 51% to EUR 4.96 bn, reviving cross-spectrum French calls for a windfall tax on superprofits

TotalEnergies reported on April 29 first-quarter 2026 net profits of $5.8 billion (EUR 4.96 billion) -- a 51 percent year-on-year increase driven by oil-price rises from the Middle East war -- reigniting French political-party calls for a windfall tax on the company's "superprofits". La France Insoumise (LFI) is pushing for outright price controls; the Socialist Party (PS) and Greens favour targeted windfall-tax legislation. The presidential bloc remains cautious, preferring voluntary redistribution by the company. Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) shows internal division on the question. The debate plays out as French households absorb the same energy-cost shock that drove the corporate result.

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TotalEnergies reported on April 29 first-quarter 2026 net profits of $5.8 billion (EUR 4.96 billion) -- a 51 percent year-on-year increase driven by oil-price rises from the Middle East war -- reigniting French political-party calls for a windfall tax on the company's "superprofits". La France Insoumise (LFI) is pushing for outright price controls; the Socialist Party (PS) and Greens favour targeted windfall-tax legislation. The presidential bloc remains cautious, preferring voluntary redistribution by the company. Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) shows internal division on the question. The debate plays out as French households absorb the same energy-cost shock that drove the corporate result.

gb88

British couple sentenced to 10 years in Iran on espionage charges speak from Evin prison

Lindsay Foreman, 53, and Craig Foreman, 52, from East Sussex, were sentenced to 10 years in Iran's Evin prison on espionage charges they deny. In their first media interviews since incarceration, they describe deteriorating conditions and plead for government action.

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Lindsay Foreman, 53, and Craig Foreman, 52, from East Sussex, were sentenced to 10 years in Iran's Evin prison on espionage charges they deny. In their first media interviews since incarceration, they describe deteriorating conditions and plead for government action.