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Global Briefing May 1

Iran War at 60 Days: $25B Cost, Hormuz Crisis, No End

The US-Israeli war on Iran reached 60 days with no resolution as Tehran rejected the US-amended peace plan and the Pentagon priced the campaign at $25 billion. Russia ran the war's largest daytime drone barrage — 409 UAVs, 388 intercepted — as Ukraine struck the Tuapse and Perm refineries; Hormuz traffic stayed down 90 percent with 20,000 seafarers stranded. Major central banks held rates but signalled hikes; US gas hit $4.30. Mercosur–EU entered into force and Aung San Suu Kyi moved to house arrest.

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us · United States

Trump Opens Iran War and Midterm Campaigns

Trump entered the ninth night of renewed strikes on Iran with US service members dead, gasoline back at $4 and a $1.15tn defence bill blocked in the Senate. He then used a primetime address to claim China obtained 220m voter files, though his own declassified documents showed no altered votes. TSMC promised another $100bn for US fabs as the White House searched for an economic counter-story.

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gb · United Kingdom

Andy Burnham Promises Circuit Breaker for UK State

Andy Burnham entered Downing Street promising a ten-year “circuit breaker” after Britain’s seventh change of prime minister since 2016. He scrapped a £1.8bn digital-ID plan and ordered cost-of-living relief, but debt exceeds 95% of GDP and the IMF says fiscal room is tight. An official finding that MI5 misled three courts made his promise to restore public trust more than campaign rhetoric.

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fr · France

Macron Ties France to Germany in Nuclear Deterrence Pact

Macron used his final Bastille week to place German forces inside a French nuclear exercise and offer Berlin co-production of SAMP/T NG, even as the common tank project lost its tank. Mélenchon threatened to break the arrangement and Elon Musk called Marine Le Pen France’s “last hope.” At home, Parliament passed assisted dying 291–241 while a pesticide amendment put a 78-article farm bill at risk.

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de · Germany

Merz Builds Stronger Security State Before AfD Rise

Germany raised its threat level from “abstract” to “high” as Russian influence operations favoured the AfD and an Iranian newspaper named Friedrich Merz on a revenge list. Berlin is preparing active powers for its intelligence agencies while joining a French nuclear exercise and licensing €2.5bn of arms for Ukraine. With the AfD above 40% in Saxony-Anhalt, the powers built for today’s threats could belong to tomorrow’s government.

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ua · Ukraine

Zelensky Dismisses Fedorov Amid Ukraine War Ministry Crisis

Zelensky removed Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after his feud with Oleksandr Syrskyi became unworkable, drawing protests in at least 16 cities and an ultimatum for 24 July. The rupture came as 145 Russian troops infiltrated Kostiantynivka, a Ukrainian drone destroyed a Tu-95 at Engels-2, and Russian missiles killed 10 people aboard the grain carrier Golden Leo.

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tr · Turkey

Turkey's Montreux Convention Outlasts Erdoğan's Emergency Politics

Turkey marked 90 years of the Montreux Convention by destroying an explosive drone that washed ashore in Istanbul, proof that control of the straits cannot contain every Black Sea risk. The anniversary followed a decade since the failed coup, as Özgür Özel prepared a breakaway party and another CHP mayor was detained. Abroad, Ankara pursued influence in Ukraine and Syria without choosing a camp.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us95

US-Israeli war on Iran enters third month with no decisive outcome in sight

The US-Israeli war on Iran has entered its third month with Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a US naval blockade locked in stalemate, and indirect talks via Pakistani mediators producing no breakthrough. Veteran US negotiators Aaron David Miller and Daniel C. Kurtzer argue in Foreign Policy that the war has handed Tehran tactical setbacks but no strategic defeat, leaving Washington with no good options on the strait or the nuclear file.

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The US-Israeli war on Iran has entered its third month with Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and a US naval blockade locked in stalemate, and indirect talks via Pakistani mediators producing no breakthrough. Veteran US negotiators Aaron David Miller and Daniel C. Kurtzer argue in Foreign Policy that the war has handed Tehran tactical setbacks but no strategic defeat, leaving Washington with no good options on the strait or the nuclear file.

ua95

Russia launches 409 drones across Ukraine in daytime barrage; Ukraine strikes Tuapse refinery for fourth time and Perm AVT-4

Russia launched 409 attack UAVs against Ukraine between 08:00 and 15:30 on May 1, the largest single daytime drone attack of the war. Ukrainian air defence shot down or suppressed 388, with 16 confirmed hits at six locations and debris at 11 more. Roughly 250 of the 409 were Shahed-type drones, with the remainder Gerbera, Italmas and other UAVs launched from Shatalovo, Kursk, Oryol, Millerovo and Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia and from Donetsk and Hvardiiske in occupied Crimea. Ternopil was struck by more than 50 Shaheds, with 10 injured and several districts losing power; Odesa and Kharkiv saw strikes on residential buildings and gas stations with multiple injuries. Ukrainian forces struck the Rosneft-owned Tuapse oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai for the fourth time in two weeks, causing a major fire at the marine terminal, and damaged the AVT-4 unit at the Perm refinery. Ukrainian President Zelensky has been pushing the day's drone exchange as part of a defence-export-and-coproduction "Drone Deals" framework tied to ten-year defence agreements with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar.

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Russia launched 409 attack UAVs against Ukraine between 08:00 and 15:30 on May 1, the largest single daytime drone attack of the war. Ukrainian air defence shot down or suppressed 388, with 16 confirmed hits at six locations and debris at 11 more. Roughly 250 of the 409 were Shahed-type drones, with the remainder Gerbera, Italmas and other UAVs launched from Shatalovo, Kursk, Oryol, Millerovo and Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia and from Donetsk and Hvardiiske in occupied Crimea. Ternopil was struck by more than 50 Shaheds, with 10 injured and several districts losing power; Odesa and Kharkiv saw strikes on residential buildings and gas stations with multiple injuries. Ukrainian forces struck the Rosneft-owned Tuapse oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai for the fourth time in two weeks, causing a major fire at the marine terminal, and damaged the AVT-4 unit at the Perm refinery. Ukrainian President Zelensky has been pushing the day's drone exchange as part of a defence-export-and-coproduction "Drone Deals" framework tied to ten-year defence agreements with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar.

tr95

Turkish police arrest nearly 400 in Istanbul May Day crackdown; Workers' Party leader Erkan Bas pepper-sprayed

Turkish police arrested nearly 400 people in Istanbul on May 1 during May Day demonstrations, according to figures from the CHD Lawyers Association cited by AFP, with riot-control vehicles firing tear gas into crowds in the Mecidiyekoey and Besiktas districts. Turkish Workers' Party president Erkan Bas was filmed engulfed in pepper spray; union official Basaran Aksu was arrested moments after denouncing the police lockdown of Taksim Square. Earlier in the week Turkish authorities had issued arrest warrants against 62 people, of whom 46 -- including journalists, trade unionists and opposition figures -- were assessed as "likely to carry out attacks". In Ankara, about 100 coal miners completing a nine-day hunger strike over wage arrears joined the May Day march under heavy police presence. The day's demonstrations were called under the slogan "Bread. Peace. Freedom." Inflation in Turkey is officially measured at 30 percent but is estimated at closer to 40 percent by independent analysts. Last year's May Day protests, which moved to the Kadikoey area after the same Taksim lockdown, also ended with more than 400 arrests.

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Turkish police arrested nearly 400 people in Istanbul on May 1 during May Day demonstrations, according to figures from the CHD Lawyers Association cited by AFP, with riot-control vehicles firing tear gas into crowds in the Mecidiyekoey and Besiktas districts. Turkish Workers' Party president Erkan Bas was filmed engulfed in pepper spray; union official Basaran Aksu was arrested moments after denouncing the police lockdown of Taksim Square. Earlier in the week Turkish authorities had issued arrest warrants against 62 people, of whom 46 -- including journalists, trade unionists and opposition figures -- were assessed as "likely to carry out attacks". In Ankara, about 100 coal miners completing a nine-day hunger strike over wage arrears joined the May Day march under heavy police presence. The day's demonstrations were called under the slogan "Bread. Peace. Freedom." Inflation in Turkey is officially measured at 30 percent but is estimated at closer to 40 percent by independent analysts. Last year's May Day protests, which moved to the Kadikoey area after the same Taksim lockdown, also ended with more than 400 arrests.

ua92

Ukraine confirms drone strike on Su-57 and Su-34 aircraft at Shagol airbase deep inside Russia

Ukraine's General Staff confirmed on May 1 that its Unmanned Systems Forces struck several Su-57 stealth fighters and a Su-34 fighter-bomber at the Shagol airbase in Russia's Chelyabinsk Oblast on April 25, approximately 1,700 km from the Ukrainian border.

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Ukraine's General Staff confirmed on May 1 that its Unmanned Systems Forces struck several Su-57 stealth fighters and a Su-34 fighter-bomber at the Shagol airbase in Russia's Chelyabinsk Oblast on April 25, approximately 1,700 km from the Ukrainian border.

gb92

Royal Navy's UKMTO warns of 'imminent humanitarian crisis' as Hormuz traffic falls 90%, 20,000 seafarers stranded

The Royal Navy's UK Maritime Trade Operations centre warned of an 'imminent humanitarian crisis' in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, reporting traffic has collapsed by more than 90% — fewer than 10 ships a day from 130 before the war — with about 20,000 seafarers stranded on roughly 850-870 vessels at anchor in the Gulf. The UN refugee agency UNHCR reported a 17%+ jump in shipping rates and warned aid operations in Sudan, the Horn of Africa and DRC are increasingly disrupted.

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The Royal Navy's UK Maritime Trade Operations centre warned of an 'imminent humanitarian crisis' in the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, reporting traffic has collapsed by more than 90% — fewer than 10 ships a day from 130 before the war — with about 20,000 seafarers stranded on roughly 850-870 vessels at anchor in the Gulf. The UN refugee agency UNHCR reported a 17%+ jump in shipping rates and warned aid operations in Sudan, the Horn of Africa and DRC are increasingly disrupted.

us90

US prosecutors release footage of Trump assassination attempt suspect, deny friendly fire

The Justice Department released video on Thursday showing a man attempting to storm the White House Correspondents' Association dinner to allegedly kill President Donald Trump. US Attorney Jeanine Pirro posted the footage amid speculation that a Secret Service agent was struck by friendly fire, which she and other officials denied.

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The Justice Department released video on Thursday showing a man attempting to storm the White House Correspondents' Association dinner to allegedly kill President Donald Trump. US Attorney Jeanine Pirro posted the footage amid speculation that a Secret Service agent was struck by friendly fire, which she and other officials denied.

ua90

Ukraine strikes Transneft oil hub in Perm, deepens long-range campaign on Russian energy infrastructure

Ukraine has struck a strategically important Transneft oil pumping facility in Perm, 1,600 km from its border, as part of an intensified campaign against Russian oil infrastructure that has reduced export capacity by roughly 40 percent, according to Ukrainian and Reuters estimates.

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Ukraine has struck a strategically important Transneft oil pumping facility in Perm, 1,600 km from its border, as part of an intensified campaign against Russian oil infrastructure that has reduced export capacity by roughly 40 percent, according to Ukrainian and Reuters estimates.

de90

German unions vow 'hard resistance' to Merz coalition's pension and health cuts at May Day rallies

DGB chair Yasmin Fahimi told the central May Day rally in Nuremberg that German unions would mount 'hard resistance' to government plans to cut pensions, statutory health insurance and social benefits, warning of a 'major social conflict' if pension protection levels are touched. Hundreds of rallies took place across Germany under the banner 'first our jobs, then your profits.'

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DGB chair Yasmin Fahimi told the central May Day rally in Nuremberg that German unions would mount 'hard resistance' to government plans to cut pensions, statutory health insurance and social benefits, warning of a 'major social conflict' if pension protection levels are touched. Hundreds of rallies took place across Germany under the banner 'first our jobs, then your profits.'

fr89

TotalEnergies Q1 profits jump 51% to EUR 4.96 bn, reviving cross-spectrum French calls for a windfall tax on superprofits

TotalEnergies reported on April 29 first-quarter 2026 net profits of $5.8 billion (EUR 4.96 billion) -- a 51 percent year-on-year increase driven by oil-price rises from the Middle East war -- reigniting French political-party calls for a windfall tax on the company's "superprofits". La France Insoumise (LFI) is pushing for outright price controls; the Socialist Party (PS) and Greens favour targeted windfall-tax legislation. The presidential bloc remains cautious, preferring voluntary redistribution by the company. Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) shows internal division on the question. The debate plays out as French households absorb the same energy-cost shock that drove the corporate result.

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TotalEnergies reported on April 29 first-quarter 2026 net profits of $5.8 billion (EUR 4.96 billion) -- a 51 percent year-on-year increase driven by oil-price rises from the Middle East war -- reigniting French political-party calls for a windfall tax on the company's "superprofits". La France Insoumise (LFI) is pushing for outright price controls; the Socialist Party (PS) and Greens favour targeted windfall-tax legislation. The presidential bloc remains cautious, preferring voluntary redistribution by the company. Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) shows internal division on the question. The debate plays out as French households absorb the same energy-cost shock that drove the corporate result.

gb88

British couple sentenced to 10 years in Iran on espionage charges speak from Evin prison

Lindsay Foreman, 53, and Craig Foreman, 52, from East Sussex, were sentenced to 10 years in Iran's Evin prison on espionage charges they deny. In their first media interviews since incarceration, they describe deteriorating conditions and plead for government action.

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Lindsay Foreman, 53, and Craig Foreman, 52, from East Sussex, were sentenced to 10 years in Iran's Evin prison on espionage charges they deny. In their first media interviews since incarceration, they describe deteriorating conditions and plead for government action.