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Global Briefing May 4

Europe Drafts Post-American Security Plan as Iran War Shocks Spread

European officials are quietly drafting a 'European NATO' contingency in case Washington withdraws Article 5 backing, the Wall Street Journal reported. Brent held at $126 with the Strait of Hormuz fully closed, and 2007 and 2022 oil-shock task forces were revealed to have rejected modelling a closure as not credible. Türkiye's manufacturing PMI plunged to 45.7 and CPI rose to 32.37 percent, Germany's Ifo auto index fell to minus 23.8, and UK food prices are tracking 50 percent higher than 2021. A drone struck Zaporizhzhia NPP's radiation lab; a Russian Iskander killed five civilians in Merefa.

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us · United States

Trump Opens Iran War and Midterm Campaigns

Trump entered the ninth night of renewed strikes on Iran with US service members dead, gasoline back at $4 and a $1.15tn defence bill blocked in the Senate. He then used a primetime address to claim China obtained 220m voter files, though his own declassified documents showed no altered votes. TSMC promised another $100bn for US fabs as the White House searched for an economic counter-story.

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gb · United Kingdom

Andy Burnham Promises Circuit Breaker for UK State

Andy Burnham entered Downing Street promising a ten-year “circuit breaker” after Britain’s seventh change of prime minister since 2016. He scrapped a £1.8bn digital-ID plan and ordered cost-of-living relief, but debt exceeds 95% of GDP and the IMF says fiscal room is tight. An official finding that MI5 misled three courts made his promise to restore public trust more than campaign rhetoric.

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fr · France

Macron Ties France to Germany in Nuclear Deterrence Pact

Macron used his final Bastille week to place German forces inside a French nuclear exercise and offer Berlin co-production of SAMP/T NG, even as the common tank project lost its tank. Mélenchon threatened to break the arrangement and Elon Musk called Marine Le Pen France’s “last hope.” At home, Parliament passed assisted dying 291–241 while a pesticide amendment put a 78-article farm bill at risk.

Weekly brief
de · Germany

Merz Builds Stronger Security State Before AfD Rise

Germany raised its threat level from “abstract” to “high” as Russian influence operations favoured the AfD and an Iranian newspaper named Friedrich Merz on a revenge list. Berlin is preparing active powers for its intelligence agencies while joining a French nuclear exercise and licensing €2.5bn of arms for Ukraine. With the AfD above 40% in Saxony-Anhalt, the powers built for today’s threats could belong to tomorrow’s government.

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ua · Ukraine

Zelensky Dismisses Fedorov Amid Ukraine War Ministry Crisis

Zelensky removed Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after his feud with Oleksandr Syrskyi became unworkable, drawing protests in at least 16 cities and an ultimatum for 24 July. The rupture came as 145 Russian troops infiltrated Kostiantynivka, a Ukrainian drone destroyed a Tu-95 at Engels-2, and Russian missiles killed 10 people aboard the grain carrier Golden Leo.

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tr · Turkey

Turkey's Montreux Convention Outlasts Erdoğan's Emergency Politics

Turkey marked 90 years of the Montreux Convention by destroying an explosive drone that washed ashore in Istanbul, proof that control of the straits cannot contain every Black Sea risk. The anniversary followed a decade since the failed coup, as Özgür Özel prepared a breakaway party and another CHP mayor was detained. Abroad, Ankara pursued influence in Ukraine and Syria without choosing a camp.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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ua95

Drone hits external radiation lab at Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant; IAEA seeks access

A drone struck the External Radiation Control Laboratory at the Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant on 3 May, the International Atomic Energy Agency said. The lab sits outside the plant's perimeter; the IAEA reported no injuries and has requested access to assess possible damage. The strike follows a 27 April drone attack near the plant that killed a vehicle driver and triggered the facility's 15th loss of external power since the full-scale war began.

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A drone struck the External Radiation Control Laboratory at the Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant on 3 May, the International Atomic Energy Agency said. The lab sits outside the plant's perimeter; the IAEA reported no injuries and has requested access to assess possible damage. The strike follows a 27 April drone attack near the plant that killed a vehicle driver and triggered the facility's 15th loss of external power since the full-scale war began.

gb95

UK food prices on track for 50% rise since 2021 as climate, energy and Iran-war shocks compound, ECIU finds

UK food prices are on track to be 50 percent higher this November than at the start of the 2021 cost-of-living crisis, research from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit shows. Beef is up 64 percent over five years and olive oil has more than doubled, with the Bank of England forecasting food inflation to reach 7 percent by year-end on higher fertiliser, energy, and transport costs. The Iran war is expected to push prices further as oil and gas surge, the analysis warns.

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UK food prices are on track to be 50 percent higher this November than at the start of the 2021 cost-of-living crisis, research from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit shows. Beef is up 64 percent over five years and olive oil has more than doubled, with the Bank of England forecasting food inflation to reach 7 percent by year-end on higher fertiliser, energy, and transport costs. The Iran war is expected to push prices further as oil and gas surge, the analysis warns.

tr95

Turkish manufacturing PMI plunges to 45.7 in April, deepest production cut since COVID, on Iran-war shock

Türkiye's Istanbul Chamber of Industry manufacturing PMI fell to 45.7 in April from 47.9 in March, the steepest production cut since the COVID-19 pandemic, S&P Global said. The reading marks 25 consecutive months of contraction, with new orders and export business both falling by much more than in March as the Iran war drove higher input costs and supply-chain disruption. Firms responded by cutting employment, purchasing, and inventories. The PMI plunge sits alongside a record April export reading of $25.4 billion the same week.

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Türkiye's Istanbul Chamber of Industry manufacturing PMI fell to 45.7 in April from 47.9 in March, the steepest production cut since the COVID-19 pandemic, S&P Global said. The reading marks 25 consecutive months of contraction, with new orders and export business both falling by much more than in March as the Iran war drove higher input costs and supply-chain disruption. Firms responded by cutting employment, purchasing, and inventories. The PMI plunge sits alongside a record April export reading of $25.4 billion the same week.

ua92

Russian Iskander missile strike on Merefa kills five, injures 19

A Russian Iskander ballistic missile struck the town of Merefa in Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of May 4, killing five civilians and injuring 19, according to the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office. Four people died at the scene, and a severely injured woman later died in hospital. The attack damaged residential buildings, shops, a restaurant, a car repair shop, and cars.

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A Russian Iskander ballistic missile struck the town of Merefa in Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of May 4, killing five civilians and injuring 19, according to the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office. Four people died at the scene, and a severely injured woman later died in hospital. The attack damaged residential buildings, shops, a restaurant, a car repair shop, and cars.

us90

Past oil-disruption exercises rejected a full Hormuz closure as not credible, leaving planners without a playbook

The full closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil to $126 per barrel and exposed a planning gap: in 2007 and 2022, energy task forces considered modelling a complete shutdown and rejected the scenario as either not credible or too large for any single institution to coordinate. Patrick Pouyanné of TotalEnergies and Sam Ori, who worked on the 2007 SAFE exercise, say the risk was underestimated. The strait carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.

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The full closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil to $126 per barrel and exposed a planning gap: in 2007 and 2022, energy task forces considered modelling a complete shutdown and rejected the scenario as either not credible or too large for any single institution to coordinate. Patrick Pouyanné of TotalEnergies and Sam Ori, who worked on the 2007 SAFE exercise, say the risk was underestimated. The strait carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.

tr90

Turkey's annual inflation rises to 32.37% in April, exceeding forecasts

Turkey's annual inflation rate rose to 32.37% in April, up from 30.9% in March and above the 31.25% forecast in a Reuters poll, official data showed on Monday. Monthly consumer prices climbed 4.18%, accelerating from 1.9% in March, driven by housing, fuel, and clothing costs. The central bank flagged rising inflation risks last month, citing fallout from the Iran war.

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Turkey's annual inflation rate rose to 32.37% in April, up from 30.9% in March and above the 31.25% forecast in a Reuters poll, official data showed on Monday. Monthly consumer prices climbed 4.18%, accelerating from 1.9% in March, driven by housing, fuel, and clothing costs. The central bank flagged rising inflation risks last month, citing fallout from the Iran war.

fr88

European officials advance contingency plans for "European NATO" as US support wavers, WSJ reports

European officials are quietly developing contingency plans for a "European NATO" that could maintain deterrence against Russia if the United States withdraws troops or refuses to invoke Article 5, the Wall Street Journal reported. The talks involve Germany, the UK, France, Poland, the Nordics, and Canada and cover who would take over air and missile defence, reinforcement routes, and nuclear credibility. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has separately proposed an EU bloc joining Ukraine, the UK, Türkiye, and Norway.

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European officials are quietly developing contingency plans for a "European NATO" that could maintain deterrence against Russia if the United States withdraws troops or refuses to invoke Article 5, the Wall Street Journal reported. The talks involve Germany, the UK, France, Poland, the Nordics, and Canada and cover who would take over air and missile defence, reinforcement routes, and nuclear credibility. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has separately proposed an EU bloc joining Ukraine, the UK, Türkiye, and Norway.

us88

EU officials warn Russia may test NATO within two years amid US withdrawal and European unpreparedness

European defense officials and lawmakers fear Russia could test NATO within the next two years, exploiting a window of opportunity while the US withdraws from Europe and the EU has not yet reinforced its military capacity, according to three EU politicians familiar with the discussions. Finnish MEP Mika Aaltola said a targeted incursion designed to create ambiguity over whether it triggers Article 5 is more likely than a full ground offensive. The EU aims to be ready to deter aggression by 2030 under its Defense Readiness Roadmap.

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European defense officials and lawmakers fear Russia could test NATO within the next two years, exploiting a window of opportunity while the US withdraws from Europe and the EU has not yet reinforced its military capacity, according to three EU politicians familiar with the discussions. Finnish MEP Mika Aaltola said a targeted incursion designed to create ambiguity over whether it triggers Article 5 is more likely than a full ground offensive. The EU aims to be ready to deter aggression by 2030 under its Defense Readiness Roadmap.

ua88

Ukrainian forces advance northwest of Orikhiv, strike Russian FSB boats guarding Kerch Bridge

Ukrainian forces recently advanced northwest of Orikhiv and struck Russian FSB boats guarding the Kerch Bridge, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Russia launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 268 long-range drones against Ukraine overnight. ISW also reported that rising oil revenues are unlikely to resolve Russia's growing economic problems, as senior Russian bankers continue to express concerns.

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Ukrainian forces recently advanced northwest of Orikhiv and struck Russian FSB boats guarding the Kerch Bridge, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Russia launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 268 long-range drones against Ukraine overnight. ISW also reported that rising oil revenues are unlikely to resolve Russia's growing economic problems, as senior Russian bankers continue to express concerns.

de88

German auto-sector confidence falls 4.8 points in May to −23.8 as Iran crisis and US tariffs hit outlook

Business confidence in Germany's auto sector fell 4.8 points to minus 23.8 in May, the Ifo Institute reported, with the forward expectations index nearly halving from minus 15.3 to minus 30.7. Companies reporting shortages of key intermediate products jumped to 9.3 percent in April from 1 percent in March, with helium imports from Qatar — used in chip production, airbags and battery testing — flagged as the central supply risk. The deterioration coincides with President Donald Trump's announcement that EU vehicle tariffs will rise from 15 to 25 percent this week.

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Business confidence in Germany's auto sector fell 4.8 points to minus 23.8 in May, the Ifo Institute reported, with the forward expectations index nearly halving from minus 15.3 to minus 30.7. Companies reporting shortages of key intermediate products jumped to 9.3 percent in April from 1 percent in March, with helium imports from Qatar — used in chip production, airbags and battery testing — flagged as the central supply risk. The deterioration coincides with President Donald Trump's announcement that EU vehicle tariffs will rise from 15 to 25 percent this week.