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Global Briefing May 4

Europe Drafts Post-American Security Plan as Iran War Shocks Spread

European officials are quietly drafting a 'European NATO' contingency in case Washington withdraws Article 5 backing, the Wall Street Journal reported. Brent held at $126 with the Strait of Hormuz fully closed, and 2007 and 2022 oil-shock task forces were revealed to have rejected modelling a closure as not credible. Türkiye's manufacturing PMI plunged to 45.7 and CPI rose to 32.37 percent, Germany's Ifo auto index fell to minus 23.8, and UK food prices are tracking 50 percent higher than 2021. A drone struck Zaporizhzhia NPP's radiation lab; a Russian Iskander killed five civilians in Merefa.

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us · United States

Trump Can't End Iran War, So He Changes Subject

This was the week the Iran war stopped being a foreign-policy story for Americans and became a domestic one: inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2%, petrol is up 39% since the fighting began, and a hundred days in the average household is $750 poorer. The economy is somehow still adding jobs. But unable to end the war that is driving the prices, the president spent the week fighting on every other front instead — his own last election, naturalised citizens, China, and the spy law that briefs him each morning.

Weekly brief
gb · United Kingdom

Britain Runs Out of Money for Defence and Order

John Healey's resignation as defence secretary was not an ordinary reshuffle: he walked out accusing Keir Starmer and the Treasury of refusing to pay for Britain's defence at the most dangerous moment since the Cold War, the week the entire fleet of attack submarines sat in dock. And as the state struggled to fund the things that keep a country safe abroad, it was visibly losing its grip on order at home — the Henry Nowak murder, riots in Belfast, a stabbing in a Manchester school. A government is meant to be able to do both. This one, this week, could do neither.

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fr · France

Lyhanna Murder Puts French State on Trial

The killing of 11-year-old Lyhanna did what no ordinary political crisis had managed: it put the French state itself in the dock. Her suspected killer had been accused of raping a 10-year-old the previous August and was never questioned. More than 60,000 people marched; the justice minister apologised and ordered a review of 70,000 abuse cases while refusing to resign; the far right demanded his head. Abroad, France was helping lead the diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. At home, it could not protect a child it had been warned about.

Weekly brief
de · Germany

Merz Bets Germany's Future on Autonomy as US Pulls 5,000 Troops

Friedrich Merz has made his choice: a Germany less dependent on an America it no longer trusts. This week he absorbed the loss of 5,000 US troops pulled out over his criticism of the Iran war, killed the €100bn FCAS fighter jet with France, and offered Ukraine a seat inside the EU. It is a coherent bet on strategic autonomy. The catch is that the costs are arriving at home — a suspected extremist arson that blacked out 40,000 homes, and a record 85,837 politically motivated crimes — before the autonomy does.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Offers to Freeze War by Escalating Strikes

Ukraine spent the week doing two things that only look contradictory: offering to freeze the war and fighting it harder than ever. Zelenskyy signalled he would accept halting the conflict along the current front line, and Europe lined up behind him. At the same time his long-range drones set Russia's fuel system alight, spreading petrol shortages to 25 regions. The escalation is not at odds with the peace offer — it is what gives the offer its weight. Whether Moscow ever picks it up depends less on the talks than on how dry Russia's pumps run.

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tr · Turkey

Erdoğan Declares Turkey a 'Playmaker' at Security Conference

Erdoğan spent the week looking indispensable to the world — mediating between Washington and Tehran, branding Turkey a regional 'playmaker', and savaging Netanyahu over Gaza. It is real influence, and it has a domestic use. The more the West needs Ankara, the freer his hand at home, where he has jailed his strongest rival and hundreds of opposition officials and will host NATO's leaders next month behind 40,000 security personnel. The same assertiveness that makes Turkey useful to Washington also had its jets harassing European defence ministers off Cyprus.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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ua95

Drone hits external radiation lab at Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant; IAEA seeks access

A drone struck the External Radiation Control Laboratory at the Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant on 3 May, the International Atomic Energy Agency said. The lab sits outside the plant's perimeter; the IAEA reported no injuries and has requested access to assess possible damage. The strike follows a 27 April drone attack near the plant that killed a vehicle driver and triggered the facility's 15th loss of external power since the full-scale war began.

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A drone struck the External Radiation Control Laboratory at the Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant on 3 May, the International Atomic Energy Agency said. The lab sits outside the plant's perimeter; the IAEA reported no injuries and has requested access to assess possible damage. The strike follows a 27 April drone attack near the plant that killed a vehicle driver and triggered the facility's 15th loss of external power since the full-scale war began.

gb95

UK food prices on track for 50% rise since 2021 as climate, energy and Iran-war shocks compound, ECIU finds

UK food prices are on track to be 50 percent higher this November than at the start of the 2021 cost-of-living crisis, research from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit shows. Beef is up 64 percent over five years and olive oil has more than doubled, with the Bank of England forecasting food inflation to reach 7 percent by year-end on higher fertiliser, energy, and transport costs. The Iran war is expected to push prices further as oil and gas surge, the analysis warns.

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UK food prices are on track to be 50 percent higher this November than at the start of the 2021 cost-of-living crisis, research from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit shows. Beef is up 64 percent over five years and olive oil has more than doubled, with the Bank of England forecasting food inflation to reach 7 percent by year-end on higher fertiliser, energy, and transport costs. The Iran war is expected to push prices further as oil and gas surge, the analysis warns.

tr95

Turkish manufacturing PMI plunges to 45.7 in April, deepest production cut since COVID, on Iran-war shock

Türkiye's Istanbul Chamber of Industry manufacturing PMI fell to 45.7 in April from 47.9 in March, the steepest production cut since the COVID-19 pandemic, S&P Global said. The reading marks 25 consecutive months of contraction, with new orders and export business both falling by much more than in March as the Iran war drove higher input costs and supply-chain disruption. Firms responded by cutting employment, purchasing, and inventories. The PMI plunge sits alongside a record April export reading of $25.4 billion the same week.

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Türkiye's Istanbul Chamber of Industry manufacturing PMI fell to 45.7 in April from 47.9 in March, the steepest production cut since the COVID-19 pandemic, S&P Global said. The reading marks 25 consecutive months of contraction, with new orders and export business both falling by much more than in March as the Iran war drove higher input costs and supply-chain disruption. Firms responded by cutting employment, purchasing, and inventories. The PMI plunge sits alongside a record April export reading of $25.4 billion the same week.

ua92

Russian Iskander missile strike on Merefa kills five, injures 19

A Russian Iskander ballistic missile struck the town of Merefa in Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of May 4, killing five civilians and injuring 19, according to the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office. Four people died at the scene, and a severely injured woman later died in hospital. The attack damaged residential buildings, shops, a restaurant, a car repair shop, and cars.

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A Russian Iskander ballistic missile struck the town of Merefa in Kharkiv Oblast on the morning of May 4, killing five civilians and injuring 19, according to the Kharkiv Regional Prosecutor’s Office. Four people died at the scene, and a severely injured woman later died in hospital. The attack damaged residential buildings, shops, a restaurant, a car repair shop, and cars.

us90

Past oil-disruption exercises rejected a full Hormuz closure as not credible, leaving planners without a playbook

The full closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil to $126 per barrel and exposed a planning gap: in 2007 and 2022, energy task forces considered modelling a complete shutdown and rejected the scenario as either not credible or too large for any single institution to coordinate. Patrick Pouyanné of TotalEnergies and Sam Ori, who worked on the 2007 SAFE exercise, say the risk was underestimated. The strait carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.

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The full closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed oil to $126 per barrel and exposed a planning gap: in 2007 and 2022, energy task forces considered modelling a complete shutdown and rejected the scenario as either not credible or too large for any single institution to coordinate. Patrick Pouyanné of TotalEnergies and Sam Ori, who worked on the 2007 SAFE exercise, say the risk was underestimated. The strait carries roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.

tr90

Turkey's annual inflation rises to 32.37% in April, exceeding forecasts

Turkey's annual inflation rate rose to 32.37% in April, up from 30.9% in March and above the 31.25% forecast in a Reuters poll, official data showed on Monday. Monthly consumer prices climbed 4.18%, accelerating from 1.9% in March, driven by housing, fuel, and clothing costs. The central bank flagged rising inflation risks last month, citing fallout from the Iran war.

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Turkey's annual inflation rate rose to 32.37% in April, up from 30.9% in March and above the 31.25% forecast in a Reuters poll, official data showed on Monday. Monthly consumer prices climbed 4.18%, accelerating from 1.9% in March, driven by housing, fuel, and clothing costs. The central bank flagged rising inflation risks last month, citing fallout from the Iran war.

fr88

European officials advance contingency plans for "European NATO" as US support wavers, WSJ reports

European officials are quietly developing contingency plans for a "European NATO" that could maintain deterrence against Russia if the United States withdraws troops or refuses to invoke Article 5, the Wall Street Journal reported. The talks involve Germany, the UK, France, Poland, the Nordics, and Canada and cover who would take over air and missile defence, reinforcement routes, and nuclear credibility. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has separately proposed an EU bloc joining Ukraine, the UK, Türkiye, and Norway.

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European officials are quietly developing contingency plans for a "European NATO" that could maintain deterrence against Russia if the United States withdraws troops or refuses to invoke Article 5, the Wall Street Journal reported. The talks involve Germany, the UK, France, Poland, the Nordics, and Canada and cover who would take over air and missile defence, reinforcement routes, and nuclear credibility. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has separately proposed an EU bloc joining Ukraine, the UK, Türkiye, and Norway.

us88

EU officials warn Russia may test NATO within two years amid US withdrawal and European unpreparedness

European defense officials and lawmakers fear Russia could test NATO within the next two years, exploiting a window of opportunity while the US withdraws from Europe and the EU has not yet reinforced its military capacity, according to three EU politicians familiar with the discussions. Finnish MEP Mika Aaltola said a targeted incursion designed to create ambiguity over whether it triggers Article 5 is more likely than a full ground offensive. The EU aims to be ready to deter aggression by 2030 under its Defense Readiness Roadmap.

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European defense officials and lawmakers fear Russia could test NATO within the next two years, exploiting a window of opportunity while the US withdraws from Europe and the EU has not yet reinforced its military capacity, according to three EU politicians familiar with the discussions. Finnish MEP Mika Aaltola said a targeted incursion designed to create ambiguity over whether it triggers Article 5 is more likely than a full ground offensive. The EU aims to be ready to deter aggression by 2030 under its Defense Readiness Roadmap.

ua88

Ukrainian forces advance northwest of Orikhiv, strike Russian FSB boats guarding Kerch Bridge

Ukrainian forces recently advanced northwest of Orikhiv and struck Russian FSB boats guarding the Kerch Bridge, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Russia launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 268 long-range drones against Ukraine overnight. ISW also reported that rising oil revenues are unlikely to resolve Russia's growing economic problems, as senior Russian bankers continue to express concerns.

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Ukrainian forces recently advanced northwest of Orikhiv and struck Russian FSB boats guarding the Kerch Bridge, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Russia launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 268 long-range drones against Ukraine overnight. ISW also reported that rising oil revenues are unlikely to resolve Russia's growing economic problems, as senior Russian bankers continue to express concerns.

de88

German auto-sector confidence falls 4.8 points in May to −23.8 as Iran crisis and US tariffs hit outlook

Business confidence in Germany's auto sector fell 4.8 points to minus 23.8 in May, the Ifo Institute reported, with the forward expectations index nearly halving from minus 15.3 to minus 30.7. Companies reporting shortages of key intermediate products jumped to 9.3 percent in April from 1 percent in March, with helium imports from Qatar — used in chip production, airbags and battery testing — flagged as the central supply risk. The deterioration coincides with President Donald Trump's announcement that EU vehicle tariffs will rise from 15 to 25 percent this week.

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Business confidence in Germany's auto sector fell 4.8 points to minus 23.8 in May, the Ifo Institute reported, with the forward expectations index nearly halving from minus 15.3 to minus 30.7. Companies reporting shortages of key intermediate products jumped to 9.3 percent in April from 1 percent in March, with helium imports from Qatar — used in chip production, airbags and battery testing — flagged as the central supply risk. The deterioration coincides with President Donald Trump's announcement that EU vehicle tariffs will rise from 15 to 25 percent this week.