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Global Briefing May 25

US-Iran War Diplomacy, Turkey Crackdown, Ukraine Drone Campaign

The US-Iran war set the global agenda: rival Gulf states pressed Trump to accept a provisional peace deal Israel vowed to resist, Hormuz traffic stayed down about 95 percent, and Asian oil fell 5 percent on ceasefire hopes. In Turkey, riot police stormed the CHP headquarters and installed a court-backed leader over Atatürk's party; Ukraine's drones cut Russian fuel output by a fifth; and the UK and France blocked a NATO Ukraine-aid levy. Elsewhere, China launched three astronauts, a Tokyo attack injured about 20, and Sudan's war passed 880 civilian deaths.

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us · United States

Trump Opens Iran War and Midterm Campaigns

Trump entered the ninth night of renewed strikes on Iran with US service members dead, gasoline back at $4 and a $1.15tn defence bill blocked in the Senate. He then used a primetime address to claim China obtained 220m voter files, though his own declassified documents showed no altered votes. TSMC promised another $100bn for US fabs as the White House searched for an economic counter-story.

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gb · United Kingdom

Andy Burnham Promises Circuit Breaker for UK State

Andy Burnham entered Downing Street promising a ten-year “circuit breaker” after Britain’s seventh change of prime minister since 2016. He scrapped a £1.8bn digital-ID plan and ordered cost-of-living relief, but debt exceeds 95% of GDP and the IMF says fiscal room is tight. An official finding that MI5 misled three courts made his promise to restore public trust more than campaign rhetoric.

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fr · France

Macron Ties France to Germany in Nuclear Deterrence Pact

Macron used his final Bastille week to place German forces inside a French nuclear exercise and offer Berlin co-production of SAMP/T NG, even as the common tank project lost its tank. Mélenchon threatened to break the arrangement and Elon Musk called Marine Le Pen France’s “last hope.” At home, Parliament passed assisted dying 291–241 while a pesticide amendment put a 78-article farm bill at risk.

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de · Germany

Merz Builds Stronger Security State Before AfD Rise

Germany raised its threat level from “abstract” to “high” as Russian influence operations favoured the AfD and an Iranian newspaper named Friedrich Merz on a revenge list. Berlin is preparing active powers for its intelligence agencies while joining a French nuclear exercise and licensing €2.5bn of arms for Ukraine. With the AfD above 40% in Saxony-Anhalt, the powers built for today’s threats could belong to tomorrow’s government.

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ua · Ukraine

Zelensky Dismisses Fedorov Amid Ukraine War Ministry Crisis

Zelensky removed Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after his feud with Oleksandr Syrskyi became unworkable, drawing protests in at least 16 cities and an ultimatum for 24 July. The rupture came as 145 Russian troops infiltrated Kostiantynivka, a Ukrainian drone destroyed a Tu-95 at Engels-2, and Russian missiles killed 10 people aboard the grain carrier Golden Leo.

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tr · Turkey

Turkey's Montreux Convention Outlasts Erdoğan's Emergency Politics

Turkey marked 90 years of the Montreux Convention by destroying an explosive drone that washed ashore in Istanbul, proof that control of the straits cannot contain every Black Sea risk. The anniversary followed a decade since the failed coup, as Özgür Özel prepared a breakaway party and another CHP mayor was detained. Abroad, Ankara pursued influence in Ukraine and Syria without choosing a camp.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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tr98

Erdoğan's government seizes CHP headquarters in Ankara and installs a loyalist atop Atatürk's party

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government has seized the Ankara headquarters of the opposition CHP and, through a compliant judge, installed a loyalist as the party's leader -- a hostile takeover of the party founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. The move follows an Ankara appeals court's annulment of the CHP's 2023 congress and the removal of leader Özgür Özel earlier in the week. Özel has continued to defy Erdoğan despite the risk of imprisonment, though whether Turks mobilise in defence of the party will not be clear until after the Eid al-Adha holiday.

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government has seized the Ankara headquarters of the opposition CHP and, through a compliant judge, installed a loyalist as the party's leader -- a hostile takeover of the party founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. The move follows an Ankara appeals court's annulment of the CHP's 2023 congress and the removal of leader Özgür Özel earlier in the week. Özel has continued to defy Erdoğan despite the risk of imprisonment, though whether Turks mobilise in defence of the party will not be clear until after the Eid al-Adha holiday.

ua95

Ukrainian deep strikes halt central Russian refineries and cut national fuel output by about a fifth

Ukraine's long-range drone campaign has forced all major refineries in central Russia to halt or cut production, lowering national fuel output by about 20 percent, with the Yaroslavl refinery struck a record 15th time on Friday. The campaign's peak came overnight on May 16-17, when Ukraine launched the largest single-night drone raid in history -- Russia's defense ministry claimed 1,030 drones downed in six hours, more than 350 over greater Moscow -- hitting a semiconductor plant, an oil pumping station and the Moscow Oil Refinery. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky said Tuesday that, for the first time in the war, Ukraine is conducting more offensive actions than Russia.

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Ukraine's long-range drone campaign has forced all major refineries in central Russia to halt or cut production, lowering national fuel output by about 20 percent, with the Yaroslavl refinery struck a record 15th time on Friday. The campaign's peak came overnight on May 16-17, when Ukraine launched the largest single-night drone raid in history -- Russia's defense ministry claimed 1,030 drones downed in six hours, more than 350 over greater Moscow -- hitting a semiconductor plant, an oil pumping station and the Moscow Oil Refinery. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky said Tuesday that, for the first time in the war, Ukraine is conducting more offensive actions than Russia.

gb95

Former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell pleads guilty to embezzling over £400,000 from the party

Peter Murrell, the Scottish National Party's chief executive for 22 years and husband of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon, pleaded guilty at the High Court in Edinburgh on Monday to embezzling £400,310.65 from the party between 2010 and 2022. The judge, Lord Young, called it a "gross breach of trust"; Murrell was remanded in custody and will be sentenced on 23 June. Sturgeon and current SNP leader John Swinney both said they felt betrayed and denied any knowledge of the thefts, while opposition figures questioned the credibility of those denials.

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Peter Murrell, the Scottish National Party's chief executive for 22 years and husband of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon, pleaded guilty at the High Court in Edinburgh on Monday to embezzling £400,310.65 from the party between 2010 and 2022. The judge, Lord Young, called it a "gross breach of trust"; Murrell was remanded in custody and will be sentenced on 23 June. Sturgeon and current SNP leader John Swinney both said they felt betrayed and denied any knowledge of the thefts, while opposition figures questioned the credibility of those denials.

tr95

Middle East rivals unite to push Trump toward Iran peace deal amid war fallout

Rival Middle Eastern nations, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Pakistan, have coalesced behind a provisional peace deal with Iran, urging the Trump administration to accept it despite fierce opposition from Israel. The agreement, reached after Pakistani and Qatari officials traveled to Iran, aims to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and relaunch nuclear negotiations. The diplomatic push reflects regional disillusionment with U.S. power after Washington failed to deliver a decisive blow against Iran or protect Gulf allies.

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Rival Middle Eastern nations, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Pakistan, have coalesced behind a provisional peace deal with Iran, urging the Trump administration to accept it despite fierce opposition from Israel. The agreement, reached after Pakistani and Qatari officials traveled to Iran, aims to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and relaunch nuclear negotiations. The diplomatic push reflects regional disillusionment with U.S. power after Washington failed to deliver a decisive blow against Iran or protect Gulf allies.

ua92

Ukraine detains 18-year-old Russian agent who coordinated May 24 attack on Kyiv

Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) detained an 18-year-old Kyiv resident on May 25 for allegedly coordinating a massive Russian attack on Kyiv the previous night that killed two people and injured 91. The suspect was arrested while conducting reconnaissance near a Ministry of Defense facility and assessing damage from the strike, according to the SBU. He faces life imprisonment on charges of high treason committed under martial law.

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Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) detained an 18-year-old Kyiv resident on May 25 for allegedly coordinating a massive Russian attack on Kyiv the previous night that killed two people and injured 91. The suspect was arrested while conducting reconnaissance near a Ministry of Defense facility and assessing damage from the strike, according to the SBU. He faces life imprisonment on charges of high treason committed under martial law.

us90

Strait of Hormuz traffic down about 95 percent since the US-Iran war, vessel-tracking data show

Average daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen roughly 95 percent since the US-Iran war began on February 28, from about 100 vessels a day to around six, according to figures drawn from the IMF's PortWatch tracker. Only 532 ships -- including 220 tankers, a quarter of them on February 28 alone -- passed between February 28 and May 17, and 218 have transited since the US blockade started. Iranian officials say traffic edged up to 20 to 25 vessels a day over the past week.

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Average daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen roughly 95 percent since the US-Iran war began on February 28, from about 100 vessels a day to around six, according to figures drawn from the IMF's PortWatch tracker. Only 532 ships -- including 220 tankers, a quarter of them on February 28 alone -- passed between February 28 and May 17, and 218 have transited since the US blockade started. Iranian officials say traffic edged up to 20 to 25 vessels a day over the past week.

fr88

Attal proposes a center-right primary for 2027 as Philippe and the Republicans rebuff it

Gabriel Attal, the former prime minister who formally entered the 2027 presidential race on May 22, said on Brut that the centrist bloc may need a primary to keep its vote from splitting and ceding the runoff to La France Insoumise and the National Rally. He has convened a liaison committee with Edouard Philippe's Horizons and Francois Bayrou's MoDem that has met once. Both Philippe and the Republicans rejected the idea, with Philippe saying there is "no place for this primary" given how wide the field is and how little the parties trust one another.

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Gabriel Attal, the former prime minister who formally entered the 2027 presidential race on May 22, said on Brut that the centrist bloc may need a primary to keep its vote from splitting and ceding the runoff to La France Insoumise and the National Rally. He has convened a liaison committee with Edouard Philippe's Horizons and Francois Bayrou's MoDem that has met once. Both Philippe and the Republicans rejected the idea, with Philippe saying there is "no place for this primary" given how wide the field is and how little the parties trust one another.

de88

German foreign minister proposes 30 to 40 billion euros in bilateral arms funding for Ukraine

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told NATO counterparts at their Helsingborg meeting on Friday that allies should add at least 30 to 40 billion euros in bilateral pledges on top of the existing EU credit for Ukraine. The EU package provides 90 billion euros over two years, but of the 45 billion for 2026 only about 30 billion is available for arms procurement, against an estimated need of up to 70 billion. President Volodymyr Zelensky has said the EU credit lets Kyiv order only 60 percent of what its own industry can build.

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German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told NATO counterparts at their Helsingborg meeting on Friday that allies should add at least 30 to 40 billion euros in bilateral pledges on top of the existing EU credit for Ukraine. The EU package provides 90 billion euros over two years, but of the 45 billion for 2026 only about 30 billion is available for arms procurement, against an estimated need of up to 70 billion. President Volodymyr Zelensky has said the EU credit lets Kyiv order only 60 percent of what its own industry can build.

us85

Trump says any Iran deal must be 'great and meaningful' or there will be no deal

US President Donald Trump said Monday that any potential agreement with Iran would need to be “great and meaningful,” warning that otherwise there would be no agreement. Trump made the statement on his Truth Social platform, adding that any deal would be “the exact opposite” of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which he described as “a direct and open path to a Nuclear Weapon for Iran.”

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US President Donald Trump said Monday that any potential agreement with Iran would need to be “great and meaningful,” warning that otherwise there would be no agreement. Trump made the statement on his Truth Social platform, adding that any deal would be “the exact opposite” of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which he described as “a direct and open path to a Nuclear Weapon for Iran.”

gb85

UK, France, Spain, Italy, Canada block Rutte's 0.25% GDP Ukraine aid proposal

Five major NATO allies — the UK, France, Spain, Italy, and Canada — have blocked NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's proposal requiring members to allocate 0.25% of GDP annually to military aid for Ukraine, The Telegraph reported on 24 May. Rutte conceded the plan lacked unanimous support and will not move forward ahead of the alliance's July summit in Ankara. At least seven members, including Poland, the Netherlands, and Nordic and Baltic states, already spending at or above the threshold backed the initiative.

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Five major NATO allies — the UK, France, Spain, Italy, and Canada — have blocked NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's proposal requiring members to allocate 0.25% of GDP annually to military aid for Ukraine, The Telegraph reported on 24 May. Rutte conceded the plan lacked unanimous support and will not move forward ahead of the alliance's July summit in Ankara. At least seven members, including Poland, the Netherlands, and Nordic and Baltic states, already spending at or above the threshold backed the initiative.