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Global Briefing May 25

US-Iran War Diplomacy, Turkey Crackdown, Ukraine Drone Campaign

The US-Iran war set the global agenda: rival Gulf states pressed Trump to accept a provisional peace deal Israel vowed to resist, Hormuz traffic stayed down about 95 percent, and Asian oil fell 5 percent on ceasefire hopes. In Turkey, riot police stormed the CHP headquarters and installed a court-backed leader over Atatürk's party; Ukraine's drones cut Russian fuel output by a fifth; and the UK and France blocked a NATO Ukraine-aid levy. Elsewhere, China launched three astronauts, a Tokyo attack injured about 20, and Sudan's war passed 880 civilian deaths.

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us · United States

Iran War Costs Reach US: Cyber, Oil, Jobs

The Iran war reached American homes, workplaces and military planning this week: water systems in at least 12 states were disrupted, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to roughly 304.8 million barrels, and employers cut 23,000 jobs in July. The Pentagon then ordered industry to accelerate missile production as Patriot and THAAD inventories tightened.

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gb · United Kingdom

Britain Rations Scarce Capacity: Prisons, Water, Migration

Britain spent the week rationing prison cells, housing, enforcement officers and water. The revised prisoner-release scheme still covers PC Andrew Harper's killers; illegal-working arrests passed 17,000; five people were arrested after three nights of disorder in Thetford; and 23 million customers faced hosepipe bans before a fifth heatwave.

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fr · France

France's Climate Emergency Shapes Presidential Race

France's hottest July on record turned drought and fire into the setting for the 2027 presidential contest. Average temperature reached 24.9?C, fires burned at least 120,000 hectares and unemployment rose to 8.3 percent. Russian-linked fabrications then targeted Gabriel Attal and other candidates as debt-service costs climbed to ?64 billion.

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de · Germany

Germany's Safety Margins Shrink: Drone, Rhine, Gas

Germany's week joined security exposure to physical scarcity. An explosive drone was found beside the Leipzig/Halle runway, Russian-linked fabrications targeted September election candidates, the Rhine approached an impassable level at Kaub, gas storage hovered near 47 percent, and heat deaths for the season reached an estimated 11,900.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Deep Strikes vs. Air Defense Shortage

Ukraine's offensive reach expanded while its defensive shield thinned. A Russian barrage killed 17 around Kyiv after all 28 missiles got through; Black Sea attacks cut grain exports by a third; Kyiv's 40-day drone campaign hit more than 1,700 Russian targets but failed to force talks; and Zelensky warned that up to 50,000 North Korean troops could deploy.

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tr · Turkey

Turkey Turns Regional Disorder Into Leverage

Turkey converted a week of surrounding conflict into diplomatic leverage: it joined Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in a mutual-defence pact, restricted Black Sea traffic after attacks on Turkish-owned ships, and pressed for a merchant-vessel moratorium. At home, ?zg?r ?zel's New Party deepened the opposition split as parliament prepared a conditional-amnesty framework for PKK members.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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tr98

Erdoğan's government seizes CHP headquarters in Ankara and installs a loyalist atop Atatürk's party

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government has seized the Ankara headquarters of the opposition CHP and, through a compliant judge, installed a loyalist as the party's leader -- a hostile takeover of the party founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. The move follows an Ankara appeals court's annulment of the CHP's 2023 congress and the removal of leader Özgür Özel earlier in the week. Özel has continued to defy Erdoğan despite the risk of imprisonment, though whether Turks mobilise in defence of the party will not be clear until after the Eid al-Adha holiday.

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Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government has seized the Ankara headquarters of the opposition CHP and, through a compliant judge, installed a loyalist as the party's leader -- a hostile takeover of the party founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. The move follows an Ankara appeals court's annulment of the CHP's 2023 congress and the removal of leader Özgür Özel earlier in the week. Özel has continued to defy Erdoğan despite the risk of imprisonment, though whether Turks mobilise in defence of the party will not be clear until after the Eid al-Adha holiday.

ua95

Ukrainian deep strikes halt central Russian refineries and cut national fuel output by about a fifth

Ukraine's long-range drone campaign has forced all major refineries in central Russia to halt or cut production, lowering national fuel output by about 20 percent, with the Yaroslavl refinery struck a record 15th time on Friday. The campaign's peak came overnight on May 16-17, when Ukraine launched the largest single-night drone raid in history -- Russia's defense ministry claimed 1,030 drones downed in six hours, more than 350 over greater Moscow -- hitting a semiconductor plant, an oil pumping station and the Moscow Oil Refinery. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky said Tuesday that, for the first time in the war, Ukraine is conducting more offensive actions than Russia.

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Ukraine's long-range drone campaign has forced all major refineries in central Russia to halt or cut production, lowering national fuel output by about 20 percent, with the Yaroslavl refinery struck a record 15th time on Friday. The campaign's peak came overnight on May 16-17, when Ukraine launched the largest single-night drone raid in history -- Russia's defense ministry claimed 1,030 drones downed in six hours, more than 350 over greater Moscow -- hitting a semiconductor plant, an oil pumping station and the Moscow Oil Refinery. Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky said Tuesday that, for the first time in the war, Ukraine is conducting more offensive actions than Russia.

gb95

Former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell pleads guilty to embezzling over £400,000 from the party

Peter Murrell, the Scottish National Party's chief executive for 22 years and husband of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon, pleaded guilty at the High Court in Edinburgh on Monday to embezzling £400,310.65 from the party between 2010 and 2022. The judge, Lord Young, called it a "gross breach of trust"; Murrell was remanded in custody and will be sentenced on 23 June. Sturgeon and current SNP leader John Swinney both said they felt betrayed and denied any knowledge of the thefts, while opposition figures questioned the credibility of those denials.

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Peter Murrell, the Scottish National Party's chief executive for 22 years and husband of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon, pleaded guilty at the High Court in Edinburgh on Monday to embezzling £400,310.65 from the party between 2010 and 2022. The judge, Lord Young, called it a "gross breach of trust"; Murrell was remanded in custody and will be sentenced on 23 June. Sturgeon and current SNP leader John Swinney both said they felt betrayed and denied any knowledge of the thefts, while opposition figures questioned the credibility of those denials.

tr95

Middle East rivals unite to push Trump toward Iran peace deal amid war fallout

Rival Middle Eastern nations, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Pakistan, have coalesced behind a provisional peace deal with Iran, urging the Trump administration to accept it despite fierce opposition from Israel. The agreement, reached after Pakistani and Qatari officials traveled to Iran, aims to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and relaunch nuclear negotiations. The diplomatic push reflects regional disillusionment with U.S. power after Washington failed to deliver a decisive blow against Iran or protect Gulf allies.

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Rival Middle Eastern nations, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Pakistan, have coalesced behind a provisional peace deal with Iran, urging the Trump administration to accept it despite fierce opposition from Israel. The agreement, reached after Pakistani and Qatari officials traveled to Iran, aims to end the war, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and relaunch nuclear negotiations. The diplomatic push reflects regional disillusionment with U.S. power after Washington failed to deliver a decisive blow against Iran or protect Gulf allies.

ua92

Ukraine detains 18-year-old Russian agent who coordinated May 24 attack on Kyiv

Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) detained an 18-year-old Kyiv resident on May 25 for allegedly coordinating a massive Russian attack on Kyiv the previous night that killed two people and injured 91. The suspect was arrested while conducting reconnaissance near a Ministry of Defense facility and assessing damage from the strike, according to the SBU. He faces life imprisonment on charges of high treason committed under martial law.

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Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) detained an 18-year-old Kyiv resident on May 25 for allegedly coordinating a massive Russian attack on Kyiv the previous night that killed two people and injured 91. The suspect was arrested while conducting reconnaissance near a Ministry of Defense facility and assessing damage from the strike, according to the SBU. He faces life imprisonment on charges of high treason committed under martial law.

us90

Strait of Hormuz traffic down about 95 percent since the US-Iran war, vessel-tracking data show

Average daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen roughly 95 percent since the US-Iran war began on February 28, from about 100 vessels a day to around six, according to figures drawn from the IMF's PortWatch tracker. Only 532 ships -- including 220 tankers, a quarter of them on February 28 alone -- passed between February 28 and May 17, and 218 have transited since the US blockade started. Iranian officials say traffic edged up to 20 to 25 vessels a day over the past week.

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Average daily traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen roughly 95 percent since the US-Iran war began on February 28, from about 100 vessels a day to around six, according to figures drawn from the IMF's PortWatch tracker. Only 532 ships -- including 220 tankers, a quarter of them on February 28 alone -- passed between February 28 and May 17, and 218 have transited since the US blockade started. Iranian officials say traffic edged up to 20 to 25 vessels a day over the past week.

fr88

Attal proposes a center-right primary for 2027 as Philippe and the Republicans rebuff it

Gabriel Attal, the former prime minister who formally entered the 2027 presidential race on May 22, said on Brut that the centrist bloc may need a primary to keep its vote from splitting and ceding the runoff to La France Insoumise and the National Rally. He has convened a liaison committee with Edouard Philippe's Horizons and Francois Bayrou's MoDem that has met once. Both Philippe and the Republicans rejected the idea, with Philippe saying there is "no place for this primary" given how wide the field is and how little the parties trust one another.

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Gabriel Attal, the former prime minister who formally entered the 2027 presidential race on May 22, said on Brut that the centrist bloc may need a primary to keep its vote from splitting and ceding the runoff to La France Insoumise and the National Rally. He has convened a liaison committee with Edouard Philippe's Horizons and Francois Bayrou's MoDem that has met once. Both Philippe and the Republicans rejected the idea, with Philippe saying there is "no place for this primary" given how wide the field is and how little the parties trust one another.

de88

German foreign minister proposes 30 to 40 billion euros in bilateral arms funding for Ukraine

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told NATO counterparts at their Helsingborg meeting on Friday that allies should add at least 30 to 40 billion euros in bilateral pledges on top of the existing EU credit for Ukraine. The EU package provides 90 billion euros over two years, but of the 45 billion for 2026 only about 30 billion is available for arms procurement, against an estimated need of up to 70 billion. President Volodymyr Zelensky has said the EU credit lets Kyiv order only 60 percent of what its own industry can build.

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German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul told NATO counterparts at their Helsingborg meeting on Friday that allies should add at least 30 to 40 billion euros in bilateral pledges on top of the existing EU credit for Ukraine. The EU package provides 90 billion euros over two years, but of the 45 billion for 2026 only about 30 billion is available for arms procurement, against an estimated need of up to 70 billion. President Volodymyr Zelensky has said the EU credit lets Kyiv order only 60 percent of what its own industry can build.

us85

Trump says any Iran deal must be 'great and meaningful' or there will be no deal

US President Donald Trump said Monday that any potential agreement with Iran would need to be “great and meaningful,” warning that otherwise there would be no agreement. Trump made the statement on his Truth Social platform, adding that any deal would be “the exact opposite” of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which he described as “a direct and open path to a Nuclear Weapon for Iran.”

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US President Donald Trump said Monday that any potential agreement with Iran would need to be “great and meaningful,” warning that otherwise there would be no agreement. Trump made the statement on his Truth Social platform, adding that any deal would be “the exact opposite” of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which he described as “a direct and open path to a Nuclear Weapon for Iran.”

gb85

UK, France, Spain, Italy, Canada block Rutte's 0.25% GDP Ukraine aid proposal

Five major NATO allies — the UK, France, Spain, Italy, and Canada — have blocked NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's proposal requiring members to allocate 0.25% of GDP annually to military aid for Ukraine, The Telegraph reported on 24 May. Rutte conceded the plan lacked unanimous support and will not move forward ahead of the alliance's July summit in Ankara. At least seven members, including Poland, the Netherlands, and Nordic and Baltic states, already spending at or above the threshold backed the initiative.

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Five major NATO allies — the UK, France, Spain, Italy, and Canada — have blocked NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's proposal requiring members to allocate 0.25% of GDP annually to military aid for Ukraine, The Telegraph reported on 24 May. Rutte conceded the plan lacked unanimous support and will not move forward ahead of the alliance's July summit in Ankara. At least seven members, including Poland, the Netherlands, and Nordic and Baltic states, already spending at or above the threshold backed the initiative.