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Global Briefing May 28

Hormuz Blockade Drains Oil Reserves as Europe Rearms Ukraine

The IEA reported a record 246-million-barrel drop in global oil inventories in March-April; RBC's Helima Croft saw losses nearing 1.5 billion barrels and prices headed toward 2008 peaks if Hormuz stays shut. Sweden signed a $2.7 billion Ukraine package built around 16 free Gripen C/D and 20-22 new E/F bought with €2.5 billion of the EU's €90 billion loan. The European Commission opened its first Foreign Subsidies probe of a Chinese deal and rebuked Ankara over Cyprus' COP31 exclusion. Trump's US pursued ceasefire and strikes in parallel as Vance touted a $1.5 trillion defence budget.

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us · United States

Trump Can't End Iran War, So He Changes Subject

This was the week the Iran war stopped being a foreign-policy story for Americans and became a domestic one: inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2%, petrol is up 39% since the fighting began, and a hundred days in the average household is $750 poorer. The economy is somehow still adding jobs. But unable to end the war that is driving the prices, the president spent the week fighting on every other front instead — his own last election, naturalised citizens, China, and the spy law that briefs him each morning.

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gb · United Kingdom

Britain Runs Out of Money for Defence and Order

John Healey's resignation as defence secretary was not an ordinary reshuffle: he walked out accusing Keir Starmer and the Treasury of refusing to pay for Britain's defence at the most dangerous moment since the Cold War, the week the entire fleet of attack submarines sat in dock. And as the state struggled to fund the things that keep a country safe abroad, it was visibly losing its grip on order at home — the Henry Nowak murder, riots in Belfast, a stabbing in a Manchester school. A government is meant to be able to do both. This one, this week, could do neither.

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fr · France

Lyhanna Murder Puts French State on Trial

The killing of 11-year-old Lyhanna did what no ordinary political crisis had managed: it put the French state itself in the dock. Her suspected killer had been accused of raping a 10-year-old the previous August and was never questioned. More than 60,000 people marched; the justice minister apologised and ordered a review of 70,000 abuse cases while refusing to resign; the far right demanded his head. Abroad, France was helping lead the diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. At home, it could not protect a child it had been warned about.

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de · Germany

Merz Bets Germany's Future on Autonomy as US Pulls 5,000 Troops

Friedrich Merz has made his choice: a Germany less dependent on an America it no longer trusts. This week he absorbed the loss of 5,000 US troops pulled out over his criticism of the Iran war, killed the €100bn FCAS fighter jet with France, and offered Ukraine a seat inside the EU. It is a coherent bet on strategic autonomy. The catch is that the costs are arriving at home — a suspected extremist arson that blacked out 40,000 homes, and a record 85,837 politically motivated crimes — before the autonomy does.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Offers to Freeze War by Escalating Strikes

Ukraine spent the week doing two things that only look contradictory: offering to freeze the war and fighting it harder than ever. Zelenskyy signalled he would accept halting the conflict along the current front line, and Europe lined up behind him. At the same time his long-range drones set Russia's fuel system alight, spreading petrol shortages to 25 regions. The escalation is not at odds with the peace offer — it is what gives the offer its weight. Whether Moscow ever picks it up depends less on the talks than on how dry Russia's pumps run.

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tr · Turkey

Erdoğan Declares Turkey a 'Playmaker' at Security Conference

Erdoğan spent the week looking indispensable to the world — mediating between Washington and Tehran, branding Turkey a regional 'playmaker', and savaging Netanyahu over Gaza. It is real influence, and it has a domestic use. The more the West needs Ankara, the freer his hand at home, where he has jailed his strongest rival and hundreds of opposition officials and will host NATO's leaders next month behind 40,000 security personnel. The same assertiveness that makes Turkey useful to Washington also had its jets harassing European defence ministers off Cyprus.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us98

Hormuz blockade drains global oil reserves at record pace; commercial stocks risk critical lows by end of June, analysts warn

The International Energy Agency said global observed oil inventories fell by 246 million barrels in March and April -- a record pace -- as Strait of Hormuz traffic has stayed at a standstill almost three months into the Iran war and the agency's March-coordinated 400 million-barrel release has not been followed by a second. Capital Economics' Neil Shearing warned in a May 18 note that commercial oil stocks could reach critically low levels by the end of June, and RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft estimated cumulative crude losses would exceed one billion barrels by month-end and approach 1.5 billion barrels if Hormuz remains shut through June, potentially driving prices toward 2008 peak levels. French Finance Minister Roland Lescure told the Financial Times after hosting G7 counterparts that reserves were "finite" and could not be released "without having visibility on the duration and intensity of the conflict."

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The International Energy Agency said global observed oil inventories fell by 246 million barrels in March and April -- a record pace -- as Strait of Hormuz traffic has stayed at a standstill almost three months into the Iran war and the agency's March-coordinated 400 million-barrel release has not been followed by a second. Capital Economics' Neil Shearing warned in a May 18 note that commercial oil stocks could reach critically low levels by the end of June, and RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft estimated cumulative crude losses would exceed one billion barrels by month-end and approach 1.5 billion barrels if Hormuz remains shut through June, potentially driving prices toward 2008 peak levels. French Finance Minister Roland Lescure told the Financial Times after hosting G7 counterparts that reserves were "finite" and could not be released "without having visibility on the duration and intensity of the conflict."

us95

JD Vance says Trump pushing $1.5 trillion defense budget, cites Golden Dome in Air Force Academy speech

Vice President JD Vance on Thursday told graduates of the U.S. Air Force Academy that President Donald Trump is pushing for a $1.5 trillion defense budget and touted the Golden Dome missile-defense system. Vance spoke as the administration circulates a draft peace agreement with Iran among allies including Israel, aiming to open the Strait of Hormuz and unfreeze $12 billion in Iranian assets. The speech came as new data showed U.S. inflation rose at its fastest pace in three years in April, driven by higher energy costs amid the war with Iran.

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Vice President JD Vance on Thursday told graduates of the U.S. Air Force Academy that President Donald Trump is pushing for a $1.5 trillion defense budget and touted the Golden Dome missile-defense system. Vance spoke as the administration circulates a draft peace agreement with Iran among allies including Israel, aiming to open the Strait of Hormuz and unfreeze $12 billion in Iranian assets. The speech came as new data showed U.S. inflation rose at its fastest pace in three years in April, driven by higher energy costs amid the war with Iran.

ua95

Sweden to donate 16 Gripen C/D fighters and sell Ukraine up to 22 new Gripen E in $2.7 billion air-defence package

At Uppsala Air Base, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a defence declaration formalising Sweden's largest military aid package to date for Ukraine, worth about $2.7 billion: Sweden will transfer 16 older Gripen JAS 39 C/D jets free of charge with deliveries from early 2027, and Ukraine will purchase 20 to 22 new Gripen E/F using €2.5 billion drawn from the EU's €90 billion Ukraine Support Loan, with deliveries from 2030. The package also commits nearly $400 million to drone production and includes long-range Meteor air-to-air missiles and pilot and technician training that has already begun -- Zelenskyy said he expects the first Gripens within 10 months. The framework signed in October 2025 contemplates up to 150 Gripens for Ukraine over the next decade; Saab shares rose 4.4 percent at 1141 GMT to lead Europe's gainers.

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At Uppsala Air Base, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a defence declaration formalising Sweden's largest military aid package to date for Ukraine, worth about $2.7 billion: Sweden will transfer 16 older Gripen JAS 39 C/D jets free of charge with deliveries from early 2027, and Ukraine will purchase 20 to 22 new Gripen E/F using €2.5 billion drawn from the EU's €90 billion Ukraine Support Loan, with deliveries from 2030. The package also commits nearly $400 million to drone production and includes long-range Meteor air-to-air missiles and pilot and technician training that has already begun -- Zelenskyy said he expects the first Gripens within 10 months. The framework signed in October 2025 contemplates up to 150 Gripens for Ukraine over the next decade; Saab shares rose 4.4 percent at 1141 GMT to lead Europe's gainers.

us92

Oil prices drop on report of US-Iran ceasefire deal pending Trump approval

Oil prices fell on Thursday after Axios reported that the US and Iran had reached an agreement for a 60-day ceasefire extension and the start of talks on Tehran's nuclear program, pending final approval from President Donald Trump. Brent crude dropped to a low of $93.36 a barrel from an earlier high of $98, before rebounding to about $94. The decline came despite fresh US airstrikes on an Iranian military site in Bandar Abbas, which Iran called a grave violation of the ceasefire.

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Oil prices fell on Thursday after Axios reported that the US and Iran had reached an agreement for a 60-day ceasefire extension and the start of talks on Tehran's nuclear program, pending final approval from President Donald Trump. Brent crude dropped to a low of $93.36 a barrel from an earlier high of $98, before rebounding to about $94. The decline came despite fresh US airstrikes on an Iranian military site in Bandar Abbas, which Iran called a grave violation of the ceasefire.

ua92

Ukraine to be fully integrated into EU air defense, drone priorities, von der Leyen says

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Ukraine will be fully integrated into Europe’s air defense, drone and counter-drone efforts, following a phone call with President Volodymyr Zelensky. She reiterated Europe’s full support as Russia intensifies its war, and said the Ukraine Support Loan would provide €28.3 billion ($32.9 billion) this year for Kyiv’s military needs. The move marks a shift from emergency aid toward long-term defense cooperation.

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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Ukraine will be fully integrated into Europe’s air defense, drone and counter-drone efforts, following a phone call with President Volodymyr Zelensky. She reiterated Europe’s full support as Russia intensifies its war, and said the Ukraine Support Loan would provide €28.3 billion ($32.9 billion) this year for Kyiv’s military needs. The move marks a shift from emergency aid toward long-term defense cooperation.

us90

US and Iran continue attacks amid negotiations; Israel expands operations in Lebanon

The United States and Iran have continued attacking each other even as they negotiate a permanent end to the war, with the US destroying boats it said were laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's Revolutionary Guards reportedly firing on US tankers in the same waterway. Israel has meanwhile expanded its strikes on Hezbollah and launched a ground offensive in Lebanon, further straining the ceasefire between the two countries.

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The United States and Iran have continued attacking each other even as they negotiate a permanent end to the war, with the US destroying boats it said were laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's Revolutionary Guards reportedly firing on US tankers in the same waterway. Israel has meanwhile expanded its strikes on Hezbollah and launched a ground offensive in Lebanon, further straining the ceasefire between the two countries.

ua90

Three-year-old girl critically wounded in Russian strike on Kherson playground, father killed

A three-year-old girl and her mother are in critical condition after a Russian strike on a playground in Kherson on May 27, which killed the father of the family. The girl underwent surgery to remove shrapnel from her head in Mykolaiv, while her six-year-old sister is in moderate condition after an operation. Local authorities urged families in dangerous areas to evacuate.

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A three-year-old girl and her mother are in critical condition after a Russian strike on a playground in Kherson on May 27, which killed the father of the family. The girl underwent surgery to remove shrapnel from her head in Mykolaiv, while her six-year-old sister is in moderate condition after an operation. Local authorities urged families in dangerous areas to evacuate.

gb90

Makerfield by-election shapes up as a Starmer-future referendum as Andy Burnham faces Reform UK on 18 June

Voters in Ashton-in-Makerfield, a Labour-safe seat since its 1983 creation, will choose on 18 June between Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who is bidding to enter Parliament after MP Josh Simons' surprise late-February resignation cleared the way, and Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, in a contest that could end Keir Starmer's premiership if Burnham wins. Labour lost all eight of its local council seats in Makerfield to Reform in May's local elections, and polling guru John Curtice told Al Jazeera the broad progressive and right-leaning blocs in the constituency are running level -- with Burnham's name adding about nine points to the Labour line. The new far-right Restore Party, endorsed by Elon Musk at the weekend, is polling about 7 percent and is positioned to split Reform's vote.

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Voters in Ashton-in-Makerfield, a Labour-safe seat since its 1983 creation, will choose on 18 June between Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, who is bidding to enter Parliament after MP Josh Simons' surprise late-February resignation cleared the way, and Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, in a contest that could end Keir Starmer's premiership if Burnham wins. Labour lost all eight of its local council seats in Makerfield to Reform in May's local elections, and polling guru John Curtice told Al Jazeera the broad progressive and right-leaning blocs in the constituency are running level -- with Burnham's name adding about nine points to the Labour line. The new far-right Restore Party, endorsed by Elon Musk at the weekend, is polling about 7 percent and is positioned to split Reform's vote.

de88

EU opens first Foreign Subsidies probe into a Chinese deal over JD.com's €2.2 billion Ceconomy takeover

The European Commission has opened an investigation under its Foreign Subsidies Regulation into Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com's €2.2 billion proposed takeover of German electronics retailer Ceconomy -- the first time the rules, designed to prevent state-backed firms gaining an unfair edge in the EU single market, have been applied to a Chinese deal. The Commission said JD.com "may have received foreign subsidies distorting the EU internal market," citing possible "preferential financing, tax incentives and grants" potentially attributable to the Chinese government; JD.com rejected the concerns and said the deal would be financed "by bank loans and cash from our ordinary activities." Ceconomy owns MediaMarkt, Saturn and MediaWorld -- more than 1,000 stores across Germany, Italy, Spain and Austria -- and holds a 22 percent stake in France's Fnac Darty; the Commission was notified on 17 April and has 90 working days, until 2 October 2026, to decide.

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The European Commission has opened an investigation under its Foreign Subsidies Regulation into Chinese e-commerce giant JD.com's €2.2 billion proposed takeover of German electronics retailer Ceconomy -- the first time the rules, designed to prevent state-backed firms gaining an unfair edge in the EU single market, have been applied to a Chinese deal. The Commission said JD.com "may have received foreign subsidies distorting the EU internal market," citing possible "preferential financing, tax incentives and grants" potentially attributable to the Chinese government; JD.com rejected the concerns and said the deal would be financed "by bank loans and cash from our ordinary activities." Ceconomy owns MediaMarkt, Saturn and MediaWorld -- more than 1,000 stores across Germany, Italy, Spain and Austria -- and holds a 22 percent stake in France's Fnac Darty; the Commission was notified on 17 April and has 90 working days, until 2 October 2026, to decide.

tr88

EU rebukes Turkey for freezing Cyprus out of COP31 preparation as Ankara prepares to host the November summit in Antalya

The European Commission on Thursday called Turkey's exclusion of Cyprus from preparatory meetings for the COP31 climate summit -- which Ankara will host in Antalya in November -- "unacceptable," with EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra warning the Turkish government that "you deal with all of the 27, or none of the 27." Turkey is also refusing or ignoring bilateral meeting requests from Cyprus, which currently represents all 27 EU governments as holder of the bloc's rotating Council presidency in the first half of this year. Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said "Türkiye has assured us that Cyprus would not be excluded from future preparatory meetings," though Ankara maintains no diplomatic relations with the Republic of Cyprus and is the only government worldwide to recognise the breakaway Turkish Cypriot north.

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The European Commission on Thursday called Turkey's exclusion of Cyprus from preparatory meetings for the COP31 climate summit -- which Ankara will host in Antalya in November -- "unacceptable," with EU climate chief Wopke Hoekstra warning the Turkish government that "you deal with all of the 27, or none of the 27." Turkey is also refusing or ignoring bilateral meeting requests from Cyprus, which currently represents all 27 EU governments as holder of the bloc's rotating Council presidency in the first half of this year. Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said "Türkiye has assured us that Cyprus would not be excluded from future preparatory meetings," though Ankara maintains no diplomatic relations with the Republic of Cyprus and is the only government worldwide to recognise the breakaway Turkish Cypriot north.