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Global Briefing May 18

Ukraine Drones Hit Moscow Region; Iran War Presses Bond Markets

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed overnight drone strikes on the Moscow region, with Russia saying it intercepted 556 drones across the country; Belarus and Russia opened the first joint nuclear-weapons exercises since the Oreshnik missile was deployed to Belarus in December 2025. Sovereign bond yields jumped — US 10-year above 4.5 percent on May 13, Japan's 10-year at a 1990s high of 2.7 percent — as the prolonged Hormuz closure pushed oil durably above $100; Foreign Policy compiled the war's US tally at 50–60 percent of Patriot stocks used, nine Gulf bases damaged, 13 service members killed. G7 finance ministers convened in Paris with Brazil, India, South Korea and Kenya at the table; Turkish FM Hakan Fidan called Israel's interception of 25 Gaza-bound flotilla ships "piracy" from Berlin; Germany unveiled a €10-billion civil-defence package and Cuba's Díaz-Canel warned of a "bloodbath" if Washington struck.

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us · United States

Trump Opens Iran War and Midterm Campaigns

Trump entered the ninth night of renewed strikes on Iran with US service members dead, gasoline back at $4 and a $1.15tn defence bill blocked in the Senate. He then used a primetime address to claim China obtained 220m voter files, though his own declassified documents showed no altered votes. TSMC promised another $100bn for US fabs as the White House searched for an economic counter-story.

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gb · United Kingdom

Andy Burnham Promises Circuit Breaker for UK State

Andy Burnham entered Downing Street promising a ten-year “circuit breaker” after Britain’s seventh change of prime minister since 2016. He scrapped a £1.8bn digital-ID plan and ordered cost-of-living relief, but debt exceeds 95% of GDP and the IMF says fiscal room is tight. An official finding that MI5 misled three courts made his promise to restore public trust more than campaign rhetoric.

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fr · France

Macron Ties France to Germany in Nuclear Deterrence Pact

Macron used his final Bastille week to place German forces inside a French nuclear exercise and offer Berlin co-production of SAMP/T NG, even as the common tank project lost its tank. Mélenchon threatened to break the arrangement and Elon Musk called Marine Le Pen France’s “last hope.” At home, Parliament passed assisted dying 291–241 while a pesticide amendment put a 78-article farm bill at risk.

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de · Germany

Merz Builds Stronger Security State Before AfD Rise

Germany raised its threat level from “abstract” to “high” as Russian influence operations favoured the AfD and an Iranian newspaper named Friedrich Merz on a revenge list. Berlin is preparing active powers for its intelligence agencies while joining a French nuclear exercise and licensing €2.5bn of arms for Ukraine. With the AfD above 40% in Saxony-Anhalt, the powers built for today’s threats could belong to tomorrow’s government.

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ua · Ukraine

Zelensky Dismisses Fedorov Amid Ukraine War Ministry Crisis

Zelensky removed Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after his feud with Oleksandr Syrskyi became unworkable, drawing protests in at least 16 cities and an ultimatum for 24 July. The rupture came as 145 Russian troops infiltrated Kostiantynivka, a Ukrainian drone destroyed a Tu-95 at Engels-2, and Russian missiles killed 10 people aboard the grain carrier Golden Leo.

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tr · Turkey

Turkey's Montreux Convention Outlasts Erdoğan's Emergency Politics

Turkey marked 90 years of the Montreux Convention by destroying an explosive drone that washed ashore in Istanbul, proof that control of the straits cannot contain every Black Sea risk. The anniversary followed a decade since the failed coup, as Özgür Özel prepared a breakaway party and another CHP mayor was detained. Abroad, Ankara pursued influence in Ukraine and Syria without choosing a camp.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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ua98

Zelensky confirms 'fully justified' Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow region as Russia says it shot down 556 drones overnight

President Volodymyr Zelensky said overnight Ukrainian drone strikes on the Moscow region were "völlig gerechtfertigt," with long-range drones reaching targets 500 km from Ukraine's border; Russia's defence ministry reported intercepting 556 Ukrainian drones across the country and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin logged at least 12 wounded near a capital oil refinery while Region Governor Andrei Vorobyov reported three killed. Russia answered with a strike package on Odesa and Dnipro that wounded at least 12 — including an 11-year-old in Odesa and a child in Dnipro, where the roof of a 24-storey building and a pyrotechnics warehouse caught fire. Former chancellor Angela Merkel publicly criticised Europe's diplomatic posture at the Republica conference, and a Ukrainian drone packed with explosives crashed near Utena in north-east Lithuania.

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President Volodymyr Zelensky said overnight Ukrainian drone strikes on the Moscow region were "völlig gerechtfertigt," with long-range drones reaching targets 500 km from Ukraine's border; Russia's defence ministry reported intercepting 556 Ukrainian drones across the country and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin logged at least 12 wounded near a capital oil refinery while Region Governor Andrei Vorobyov reported three killed. Russia answered with a strike package on Odesa and Dnipro that wounded at least 12 — including an 11-year-old in Odesa and a child in Dnipro, where the roof of a 24-storey building and a pyrotechnics warehouse caught fire. Former chancellor Angela Merkel publicly criticised Europe's diplomatic posture at the Republica conference, and a Ukrainian drone packed with explosives crashed near Utena in north-east Lithuania.

us95

Iran retained 70 percent of its missile stockpile while the US burned through half of its Patriot stocks and 9 Gulf bases were damaged, Foreign Policy review of war costs finds

US intelligence cited by the New York Times shows Iran still holds 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile, 70 percent of its mobile launchers, and operational access to more than 90 percent of its missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, Foreign Policy editor in chief Ravi Agrawal wrote on May 18; the Pentagon's counterpart losses include 217 damaged structures across 15 US bases, at least 9 in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, and Qatar significantly hit, half to 60 percent of Patriot defense missiles expended, a third of US Tomahawk stocks, 13 US service members killed and more than 400 injured. US gasoline is up nearly 50 percent year-on-year and diesel 59 percent, the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast from 3.4 to 3.1 percent and Russia has doubled monthly oil revenues since the war began. Allies — from Merz in Berlin to host countries in the Gulf — are publicly questioning US reliability.

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US intelligence cited by the New York Times shows Iran still holds 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile, 70 percent of its mobile launchers, and operational access to more than 90 percent of its missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, Foreign Policy editor in chief Ravi Agrawal wrote on May 18; the Pentagon's counterpart losses include 217 damaged structures across 15 US bases, at least 9 in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, and Qatar significantly hit, half to 60 percent of Patriot defense missiles expended, a third of US Tomahawk stocks, 13 US service members killed and more than 400 injured. US gasoline is up nearly 50 percent year-on-year and diesel 59 percent, the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast from 3.4 to 3.1 percent and Russia has doubled monthly oil revenues since the war began. Allies — from Merz in Berlin to host countries in the Gulf — are publicly questioning US reliability.

ua95

Russia and Belarus begin joint nuclear weapons drills near EU and Ukraine borders

Belarus and Russia launched joint military exercises on Monday, May 18, practicing the delivery and preparation of nuclear munitions. The Belarusian Defense Ministry said the drills involve missile forces and aviation, aiming to improve readiness for using "special munitions" from non-standard deployment areas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Russia is trying to draw Belarus deeper into the war, while Kyiv's Foreign Ministry condemned the exercises as an "unprecedented challenge" to global security.

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Belarus and Russia launched joint military exercises on Monday, May 18, practicing the delivery and preparation of nuclear munitions. The Belarusian Defense Ministry said the drills involve missile forces and aviation, aiming to improve readiness for using "special munitions" from non-standard deployment areas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Russia is trying to draw Belarus deeper into the war, while Kyiv's Foreign Ministry condemned the exercises as an "unprecedented challenge" to global security.

de95

Klingbeil tells Paris G7 the Iran war is a 'serious threat to the global economy' as Hormuz blockade tops finance ministers' agenda

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil told reporters before flying to Paris on Monday that the Iran war and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz are a "ernsthafte Bedrohung für die Weltwirtschaft," as G7 finance ministers — Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Japan, Canada and the US — began two days of talks under France's 2026 presidency. The Paris agenda also covers global-trade imbalances, supply of critical raw materials, financing for developing countries, terrorism and organised-crime financing, and Ukraine support; finance ministers from Brazil, India, South Korea and Kenya joined the table. Chancellor Friedrich Merz separately condemned Iran's drone attack on the Baraka nuclear plant in the UAE and demanded Tehran open Hormuz 'ohne Einschränkungen.'

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German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil told reporters before flying to Paris on Monday that the Iran war and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz are a "ernsthafte Bedrohung für die Weltwirtschaft," as G7 finance ministers — Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Japan, Canada and the US — began two days of talks under France's 2026 presidency. The Paris agenda also covers global-trade imbalances, supply of critical raw materials, financing for developing countries, terrorism and organised-crime financing, and Ukraine support; finance ministers from Brazil, India, South Korea and Kenya joined the table. Chancellor Friedrich Merz separately condemned Iran's drone attack on the Baraka nuclear plant in the UAE and demanded Tehran open Hormuz 'ohne Einschränkungen.'

gb95

Bond yields snap higher in the US, France and Japan as the prolonged Hormuz closure pushes oil above $100, Le Monde reports

Le Monde reported that US 10-year Treasury yields broke above 4.5 percent on May 13 for the first time in a year, Japanese 10-year yields hit 2.7 percent — their highest since the 1990s — and French 10-year yields neared 3.8 percent, level with their 2009 highs, as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz kept oil durably above $100 a barrel. Markets, Rexecode economist Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie told the paper, have concluded the crisis is not as transitory as they first thought; Natixis analysts said "le marché obligataire perd patience." The repricing follows Iran's May 15 announcement that it considered the strait a joint Omani–Iranian waterway and was preparing a toll regime, and earlier UK demand-side hits — Heathrow traffic down 5 percent in April and Tui logging a 10 percent drop in UK summer bookings.

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Le Monde reported that US 10-year Treasury yields broke above 4.5 percent on May 13 for the first time in a year, Japanese 10-year yields hit 2.7 percent — their highest since the 1990s — and French 10-year yields neared 3.8 percent, level with their 2009 highs, as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz kept oil durably above $100 a barrel. Markets, Rexecode economist Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie told the paper, have concluded the crisis is not as transitory as they first thought; Natixis analysts said "le marché obligataire perd patience." The repricing follows Iran's May 15 announcement that it considered the strait a joint Omani–Iranian waterway and was preparing a toll regime, and earlier UK demand-side hits — Heathrow traffic down 5 percent in April and Tui logging a 10 percent drop in UK summer bookings.

us92

Global bond rout deepens as Iran war stokes inflation fears and rate hike bets

Government bonds from Tokyo to New York extended losses on Monday as rising energy prices fueled by the Iran war stoked inflation concerns and reinforced investor bets on further rate hikes by central banks worldwide. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields jumped to 4.631%, their highest since February 2025, while Japan's 30-year yield hit a record 4.200%. Markets now price a more than 50% chance the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates by December, a reversal from pre-war expectations of rate cuts.

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Government bonds from Tokyo to New York extended losses on Monday as rising energy prices fueled by the Iran war stoked inflation concerns and reinforced investor bets on further rate hikes by central banks worldwide. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields jumped to 4.631%, their highest since February 2025, while Japan's 30-year yield hit a record 4.200%. Markets now price a more than 50% chance the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates by December, a reversal from pre-war expectations of rate cuts.

us88

CBS News/YouGov poll: 57% of Americans say Trump's policies make them financially worse off

A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday found 57% of Americans believe President Trump's policies are making them financially worse off, with 44% rating their personal financial situation as fairly or very bad. The survey, conducted May 13-15 among 2,064 respondents, comes as the U.S. war with Iran nears its fourth month and the average price of regular gasoline reached $4.51 a gallon, up from $3.19 a year ago. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) attributed the economic trouble directly to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

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A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday found 57% of Americans believe President Trump's policies are making them financially worse off, with 44% rating their personal financial situation as fairly or very bad. The survey, conducted May 13-15 among 2,064 respondents, comes as the U.S. war with Iran nears its fourth month and the average price of regular gasoline reached $4.51 a gallon, up from $3.19 a year ago. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) attributed the economic trouble directly to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

ua88

Ukraine completes first domestically produced guided aerial bomb, now combat-ready

Ukraine has developed its first domestically produced guided aerial bomb, now ready for combat use, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said on May 18. The bomb, created by a participant in the Brave1 defense technology platform, features a 250-kilogram warhead and a standoff range of tens of kilometers. Fedorov said the weapon is not a copy of Western or Soviet systems and that the ministry has already purchased an initial experimental batch.

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Ukraine has developed its first domestically produced guided aerial bomb, now ready for combat use, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said on May 18. The bomb, created by a participant in the Brave1 defense technology platform, features a 250-kilogram warhead and a standoff range of tens of kilometers. Fedorov said the weapon is not a copy of Western or Soviet systems and that the ministry has already purchased an initial experimental batch.

de88

Germany unveils €10 billion civil defense plan with shelters, vehicles, and training

Germany's interior minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) announced a €10 billion civil defense package to be approved by cabinet on Wednesday, including 1,000 special vehicles and 110,000 field beds by 2029. The plan aims to address long-standing gaps in bunkers, sirens, and medical supplies. DRK president Hermann Gröhe called for an immediate "Kraftakt" (major effort), warning that neglecting civil protection while boosting the military is inconsistent.

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Germany's interior minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) announced a €10 billion civil defense package to be approved by cabinet on Wednesday, including 1,000 special vehicles and 110,000 field beds by 2029. The plan aims to address long-standing gaps in bunkers, sirens, and medical supplies. DRK president Hermann Gröhe called for an immediate "Kraftakt" (major effort), warning that neglecting civil protection while boosting the military is inconsistent.

tr88

Fidan tells Berlin press conference the EU is 'incomplete without Türkiye' and calls Israel's Sumud flotilla interception 'piracy'

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking alongside German counterpart Johann Wadephul after the third Turkey-Germany Strategic Dialogue Mechanism meeting in Berlin on Monday, said the EU's accession track for Ankara should be handled "independently of political motives" and that excluding Türkiye from the bloc's defence and security initiatives "contradicts Europe's stated security objectives." He condemned Israel's interception of an estimated 25 ships in the Gaza-bound Global Sumud Flotilla as "piracy" and said safe return of activists, including Turkish nationals, was Ankara's top concern. On Iran, Fidan said there was "no immediate threat in practice" but warned that any resumption of the US-Iran war "would bring serious economic and political consequences for the region and beyond."

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Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking alongside German counterpart Johann Wadephul after the third Turkey-Germany Strategic Dialogue Mechanism meeting in Berlin on Monday, said the EU's accession track for Ankara should be handled "independently of political motives" and that excluding Türkiye from the bloc's defence and security initiatives "contradicts Europe's stated security objectives." He condemned Israel's interception of an estimated 25 ships in the Gaza-bound Global Sumud Flotilla as "piracy" and said safe return of activists, including Turkish nationals, was Ankara's top concern. On Iran, Fidan said there was "no immediate threat in practice" but warned that any resumption of the US-Iran war "would bring serious economic and political consequences for the region and beyond."