In Focus

Top Stories

Archive
Global Briefing May 18

Ukraine Drones Hit Moscow Region; Iran War Presses Bond Markets

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed overnight drone strikes on the Moscow region, with Russia saying it intercepted 556 drones across the country; Belarus and Russia opened the first joint nuclear-weapons exercises since the Oreshnik missile was deployed to Belarus in December 2025. Sovereign bond yields jumped — US 10-year above 4.5 percent on May 13, Japan's 10-year at a 1990s high of 2.7 percent — as the prolonged Hormuz closure pushed oil durably above $100; Foreign Policy compiled the war's US tally at 50–60 percent of Patriot stocks used, nine Gulf bases damaged, 13 service members killed. G7 finance ministers convened in Paris with Brazil, India, South Korea and Kenya at the table; Turkish FM Hakan Fidan called Israel's interception of 25 Gaza-bound flotilla ships "piracy" from Berlin; Germany unveiled a €10-billion civil-defence package and Cuba's Díaz-Canel warned of a "bloodbath" if Washington struck.

Read full brief
us · United States

Trump Can't End Iran War, So He Changes Subject

This was the week the Iran war stopped being a foreign-policy story for Americans and became a domestic one: inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2%, petrol is up 39% since the fighting began, and a hundred days in the average household is $750 poorer. The economy is somehow still adding jobs. But unable to end the war that is driving the prices, the president spent the week fighting on every other front instead — his own last election, naturalised citizens, China, and the spy law that briefs him each morning.

Weekly brief
gb · United Kingdom

Britain Runs Out of Money for Defence and Order

John Healey's resignation as defence secretary was not an ordinary reshuffle: he walked out accusing Keir Starmer and the Treasury of refusing to pay for Britain's defence at the most dangerous moment since the Cold War, the week the entire fleet of attack submarines sat in dock. And as the state struggled to fund the things that keep a country safe abroad, it was visibly losing its grip on order at home — the Henry Nowak murder, riots in Belfast, a stabbing in a Manchester school. A government is meant to be able to do both. This one, this week, could do neither.

Weekly brief
fr · France

Lyhanna Murder Puts French State on Trial

The killing of 11-year-old Lyhanna did what no ordinary political crisis had managed: it put the French state itself in the dock. Her suspected killer had been accused of raping a 10-year-old the previous August and was never questioned. More than 60,000 people marched; the justice minister apologised and ordered a review of 70,000 abuse cases while refusing to resign; the far right demanded his head. Abroad, France was helping lead the diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. At home, it could not protect a child it had been warned about.

Weekly brief
de · Germany

Merz Bets Germany's Future on Autonomy as US Pulls 5,000 Troops

Friedrich Merz has made his choice: a Germany less dependent on an America it no longer trusts. This week he absorbed the loss of 5,000 US troops pulled out over his criticism of the Iran war, killed the €100bn FCAS fighter jet with France, and offered Ukraine a seat inside the EU. It is a coherent bet on strategic autonomy. The catch is that the costs are arriving at home — a suspected extremist arson that blacked out 40,000 homes, and a record 85,837 politically motivated crimes — before the autonomy does.

Weekly brief
ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Offers to Freeze War by Escalating Strikes

Ukraine spent the week doing two things that only look contradictory: offering to freeze the war and fighting it harder than ever. Zelenskyy signalled he would accept halting the conflict along the current front line, and Europe lined up behind him. At the same time his long-range drones set Russia's fuel system alight, spreading petrol shortages to 25 regions. The escalation is not at odds with the peace offer — it is what gives the offer its weight. Whether Moscow ever picks it up depends less on the talks than on how dry Russia's pumps run.

Weekly brief
tr · Turkey

Erdoğan Declares Turkey a 'Playmaker' at Security Conference

Erdoğan spent the week looking indispensable to the world — mediating between Washington and Tehran, branding Turkey a regional 'playmaker', and savaging Netanyahu over Gaza. It is real influence, and it has a domestic use. The more the West needs Ankara, the freer his hand at home, where he has jailed his strongest rival and hundreds of opposition officials and will host NATO's leaders next month behind 40,000 security personnel. The same assertiveness that makes Turkey useful to Washington also had its jets harassing European defence ministers off Cyprus.

Weekly brief
Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

138
Filter
ua98

Zelensky confirms 'fully justified' Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow region as Russia says it shot down 556 drones overnight

President Volodymyr Zelensky said overnight Ukrainian drone strikes on the Moscow region were "völlig gerechtfertigt," with long-range drones reaching targets 500 km from Ukraine's border; Russia's defence ministry reported intercepting 556 Ukrainian drones across the country and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin logged at least 12 wounded near a capital oil refinery while Region Governor Andrei Vorobyov reported three killed. Russia answered with a strike package on Odesa and Dnipro that wounded at least 12 — including an 11-year-old in Odesa and a child in Dnipro, where the roof of a 24-storey building and a pyrotechnics warehouse caught fire. Former chancellor Angela Merkel publicly criticised Europe's diplomatic posture at the Republica conference, and a Ukrainian drone packed with explosives crashed near Utena in north-east Lithuania.

Show summary

President Volodymyr Zelensky said overnight Ukrainian drone strikes on the Moscow region were "völlig gerechtfertigt," with long-range drones reaching targets 500 km from Ukraine's border; Russia's defence ministry reported intercepting 556 Ukrainian drones across the country and Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin logged at least 12 wounded near a capital oil refinery while Region Governor Andrei Vorobyov reported three killed. Russia answered with a strike package on Odesa and Dnipro that wounded at least 12 — including an 11-year-old in Odesa and a child in Dnipro, where the roof of a 24-storey building and a pyrotechnics warehouse caught fire. Former chancellor Angela Merkel publicly criticised Europe's diplomatic posture at the Republica conference, and a Ukrainian drone packed with explosives crashed near Utena in north-east Lithuania.

us95

Iran retained 70 percent of its missile stockpile while the US burned through half of its Patriot stocks and 9 Gulf bases were damaged, Foreign Policy review of war costs finds

US intelligence cited by the New York Times shows Iran still holds 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile, 70 percent of its mobile launchers, and operational access to more than 90 percent of its missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, Foreign Policy editor in chief Ravi Agrawal wrote on May 18; the Pentagon's counterpart losses include 217 damaged structures across 15 US bases, at least 9 in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, and Qatar significantly hit, half to 60 percent of Patriot defense missiles expended, a third of US Tomahawk stocks, 13 US service members killed and more than 400 injured. US gasoline is up nearly 50 percent year-on-year and diesel 59 percent, the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast from 3.4 to 3.1 percent and Russia has doubled monthly oil revenues since the war began. Allies — from Merz in Berlin to host countries in the Gulf — are publicly questioning US reliability.

Show summary

US intelligence cited by the New York Times shows Iran still holds 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile, 70 percent of its mobile launchers, and operational access to more than 90 percent of its missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz, Foreign Policy editor in chief Ravi Agrawal wrote on May 18; the Pentagon's counterpart losses include 217 damaged structures across 15 US bases, at least 9 in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, the UAE, and Qatar significantly hit, half to 60 percent of Patriot defense missiles expended, a third of US Tomahawk stocks, 13 US service members killed and more than 400 injured. US gasoline is up nearly 50 percent year-on-year and diesel 59 percent, the IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast from 3.4 to 3.1 percent and Russia has doubled monthly oil revenues since the war began. Allies — from Merz in Berlin to host countries in the Gulf — are publicly questioning US reliability.

ua95

Russia and Belarus begin joint nuclear weapons drills near EU and Ukraine borders

Belarus and Russia launched joint military exercises on Monday, May 18, practicing the delivery and preparation of nuclear munitions. The Belarusian Defense Ministry said the drills involve missile forces and aviation, aiming to improve readiness for using "special munitions" from non-standard deployment areas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Russia is trying to draw Belarus deeper into the war, while Kyiv's Foreign Ministry condemned the exercises as an "unprecedented challenge" to global security.

Show summary

Belarus and Russia launched joint military exercises on Monday, May 18, practicing the delivery and preparation of nuclear munitions. The Belarusian Defense Ministry said the drills involve missile forces and aviation, aiming to improve readiness for using "special munitions" from non-standard deployment areas. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Russia is trying to draw Belarus deeper into the war, while Kyiv's Foreign Ministry condemned the exercises as an "unprecedented challenge" to global security.

de95

Klingbeil tells Paris G7 the Iran war is a 'serious threat to the global economy' as Hormuz blockade tops finance ministers' agenda

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil told reporters before flying to Paris on Monday that the Iran war and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz are a "ernsthafte Bedrohung für die Weltwirtschaft," as G7 finance ministers — Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Japan, Canada and the US — began two days of talks under France's 2026 presidency. The Paris agenda also covers global-trade imbalances, supply of critical raw materials, financing for developing countries, terrorism and organised-crime financing, and Ukraine support; finance ministers from Brazil, India, South Korea and Kenya joined the table. Chancellor Friedrich Merz separately condemned Iran's drone attack on the Baraka nuclear plant in the UAE and demanded Tehran open Hormuz 'ohne Einschränkungen.'

Show summary

German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil told reporters before flying to Paris on Monday that the Iran war and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz are a "ernsthafte Bedrohung für die Weltwirtschaft," as G7 finance ministers — Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Japan, Canada and the US — began two days of talks under France's 2026 presidency. The Paris agenda also covers global-trade imbalances, supply of critical raw materials, financing for developing countries, terrorism and organised-crime financing, and Ukraine support; finance ministers from Brazil, India, South Korea and Kenya joined the table. Chancellor Friedrich Merz separately condemned Iran's drone attack on the Baraka nuclear plant in the UAE and demanded Tehran open Hormuz 'ohne Einschränkungen.'

gb95

Bond yields snap higher in the US, France and Japan as the prolonged Hormuz closure pushes oil above $100, Le Monde reports

Le Monde reported that US 10-year Treasury yields broke above 4.5 percent on May 13 for the first time in a year, Japanese 10-year yields hit 2.7 percent — their highest since the 1990s — and French 10-year yields neared 3.8 percent, level with their 2009 highs, as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz kept oil durably above $100 a barrel. Markets, Rexecode economist Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie told the paper, have concluded the crisis is not as transitory as they first thought; Natixis analysts said "le marché obligataire perd patience." The repricing follows Iran's May 15 announcement that it considered the strait a joint Omani–Iranian waterway and was preparing a toll regime, and earlier UK demand-side hits — Heathrow traffic down 5 percent in April and Tui logging a 10 percent drop in UK summer bookings.

Show summary

Le Monde reported that US 10-year Treasury yields broke above 4.5 percent on May 13 for the first time in a year, Japanese 10-year yields hit 2.7 percent — their highest since the 1990s — and French 10-year yields neared 3.8 percent, level with their 2009 highs, as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz kept oil durably above $100 a barrel. Markets, Rexecode economist Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie told the paper, have concluded the crisis is not as transitory as they first thought; Natixis analysts said "le marché obligataire perd patience." The repricing follows Iran's May 15 announcement that it considered the strait a joint Omani–Iranian waterway and was preparing a toll regime, and earlier UK demand-side hits — Heathrow traffic down 5 percent in April and Tui logging a 10 percent drop in UK summer bookings.

us92

Global bond rout deepens as Iran war stokes inflation fears and rate hike bets

Government bonds from Tokyo to New York extended losses on Monday as rising energy prices fueled by the Iran war stoked inflation concerns and reinforced investor bets on further rate hikes by central banks worldwide. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields jumped to 4.631%, their highest since February 2025, while Japan's 30-year yield hit a record 4.200%. Markets now price a more than 50% chance the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates by December, a reversal from pre-war expectations of rate cuts.

Show summary

Government bonds from Tokyo to New York extended losses on Monday as rising energy prices fueled by the Iran war stoked inflation concerns and reinforced investor bets on further rate hikes by central banks worldwide. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields jumped to 4.631%, their highest since February 2025, while Japan's 30-year yield hit a record 4.200%. Markets now price a more than 50% chance the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise rates by December, a reversal from pre-war expectations of rate cuts.

us88

CBS News/YouGov poll: 57% of Americans say Trump's policies make them financially worse off

A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday found 57% of Americans believe President Trump's policies are making them financially worse off, with 44% rating their personal financial situation as fairly or very bad. The survey, conducted May 13-15 among 2,064 respondents, comes as the U.S. war with Iran nears its fourth month and the average price of regular gasoline reached $4.51 a gallon, up from $3.19 a year ago. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) attributed the economic trouble directly to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Show summary

A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday found 57% of Americans believe President Trump's policies are making them financially worse off, with 44% rating their personal financial situation as fairly or very bad. The survey, conducted May 13-15 among 2,064 respondents, comes as the U.S. war with Iran nears its fourth month and the average price of regular gasoline reached $4.51 a gallon, up from $3.19 a year ago. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) attributed the economic trouble directly to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

ua88

Ukraine completes first domestically produced guided aerial bomb, now combat-ready

Ukraine has developed its first domestically produced guided aerial bomb, now ready for combat use, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said on May 18. The bomb, created by a participant in the Brave1 defense technology platform, features a 250-kilogram warhead and a standoff range of tens of kilometers. Fedorov said the weapon is not a copy of Western or Soviet systems and that the ministry has already purchased an initial experimental batch.

Show summary

Ukraine has developed its first domestically produced guided aerial bomb, now ready for combat use, Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said on May 18. The bomb, created by a participant in the Brave1 defense technology platform, features a 250-kilogram warhead and a standoff range of tens of kilometers. Fedorov said the weapon is not a copy of Western or Soviet systems and that the ministry has already purchased an initial experimental batch.

de88

Germany unveils €10 billion civil defense plan with shelters, vehicles, and training

Germany's interior minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) announced a €10 billion civil defense package to be approved by cabinet on Wednesday, including 1,000 special vehicles and 110,000 field beds by 2029. The plan aims to address long-standing gaps in bunkers, sirens, and medical supplies. DRK president Hermann Gröhe called for an immediate "Kraftakt" (major effort), warning that neglecting civil protection while boosting the military is inconsistent.

Show summary

Germany's interior minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU) announced a €10 billion civil defense package to be approved by cabinet on Wednesday, including 1,000 special vehicles and 110,000 field beds by 2029. The plan aims to address long-standing gaps in bunkers, sirens, and medical supplies. DRK president Hermann Gröhe called for an immediate "Kraftakt" (major effort), warning that neglecting civil protection while boosting the military is inconsistent.

tr88

Fidan tells Berlin press conference the EU is 'incomplete without Türkiye' and calls Israel's Sumud flotilla interception 'piracy'

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking alongside German counterpart Johann Wadephul after the third Turkey-Germany Strategic Dialogue Mechanism meeting in Berlin on Monday, said the EU's accession track for Ankara should be handled "independently of political motives" and that excluding Türkiye from the bloc's defence and security initiatives "contradicts Europe's stated security objectives." He condemned Israel's interception of an estimated 25 ships in the Gaza-bound Global Sumud Flotilla as "piracy" and said safe return of activists, including Turkish nationals, was Ankara's top concern. On Iran, Fidan said there was "no immediate threat in practice" but warned that any resumption of the US-Iran war "would bring serious economic and political consequences for the region and beyond."

Show summary

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking alongside German counterpart Johann Wadephul after the third Turkey-Germany Strategic Dialogue Mechanism meeting in Berlin on Monday, said the EU's accession track for Ankara should be handled "independently of political motives" and that excluding Türkiye from the bloc's defence and security initiatives "contradicts Europe's stated security objectives." He condemned Israel's interception of an estimated 25 ships in the Gaza-bound Global Sumud Flotilla as "piracy" and said safe return of activists, including Turkish nationals, was Ankara's top concern. On Iran, Fidan said there was "no immediate threat in practice" but warned that any resumption of the US-Iran war "would bring serious economic and political consequences for the region and beyond."