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Global Briefing May 20

Iran War Bills Come Due as Ukraine Eyes Belarus Threat

On May 20 every major capital was, in different ways, paying the bill for the Iran war's third month: U.S. gasoline crossed $4 a gallon in all 50 states; April U.S. grocery inflation hit 2.9% year-over-year; Fed minutes flagged possible rate hikes; UK CPI fell to 2.8% but is forecast to climb back to 4%; and London quietly relicensed imports of diesel and jet fuel refined from Russian crude. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia is weighing five scenarios for attacks via Belarus and Bryansk against the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction; Ukrainian drones have halted six Russian refineries in May; Russia and Belarus continued a 64,000-troop nuclear-readiness exercise; and a tense Trump–Netanyahu call over a Qatar–Pakistan peace memo left Israeli leadership incensed.

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us · United States

Trump Can't End Iran War, So He Changes Subject

This was the week the Iran war stopped being a foreign-policy story for Americans and became a domestic one: inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2%, petrol is up 39% since the fighting began, and a hundred days in the average household is $750 poorer. The economy is somehow still adding jobs. But unable to end the war that is driving the prices, the president spent the week fighting on every other front instead — his own last election, naturalised citizens, China, and the spy law that briefs him each morning.

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gb · United Kingdom

Britain Runs Out of Money for Defence and Order

John Healey's resignation as defence secretary was not an ordinary reshuffle: he walked out accusing Keir Starmer and the Treasury of refusing to pay for Britain's defence at the most dangerous moment since the Cold War, the week the entire fleet of attack submarines sat in dock. And as the state struggled to fund the things that keep a country safe abroad, it was visibly losing its grip on order at home — the Henry Nowak murder, riots in Belfast, a stabbing in a Manchester school. A government is meant to be able to do both. This one, this week, could do neither.

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fr · France

Lyhanna Murder Puts French State on Trial

The killing of 11-year-old Lyhanna did what no ordinary political crisis had managed: it put the French state itself in the dock. Her suspected killer had been accused of raping a 10-year-old the previous August and was never questioned. More than 60,000 people marched; the justice minister apologised and ordered a review of 70,000 abuse cases while refusing to resign; the far right demanded his head. Abroad, France was helping lead the diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. At home, it could not protect a child it had been warned about.

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de · Germany

Merz Bets Germany's Future on Autonomy as US Pulls 5,000 Troops

Friedrich Merz has made his choice: a Germany less dependent on an America it no longer trusts. This week he absorbed the loss of 5,000 US troops pulled out over his criticism of the Iran war, killed the €100bn FCAS fighter jet with France, and offered Ukraine a seat inside the EU. It is a coherent bet on strategic autonomy. The catch is that the costs are arriving at home — a suspected extremist arson that blacked out 40,000 homes, and a record 85,837 politically motivated crimes — before the autonomy does.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Offers to Freeze War by Escalating Strikes

Ukraine spent the week doing two things that only look contradictory: offering to freeze the war and fighting it harder than ever. Zelenskyy signalled he would accept halting the conflict along the current front line, and Europe lined up behind him. At the same time his long-range drones set Russia's fuel system alight, spreading petrol shortages to 25 regions. The escalation is not at odds with the peace offer — it is what gives the offer its weight. Whether Moscow ever picks it up depends less on the talks than on how dry Russia's pumps run.

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tr · Turkey

Erdoğan Declares Turkey a 'Playmaker' at Security Conference

Erdoğan spent the week looking indispensable to the world — mediating between Washington and Tehran, branding Turkey a regional 'playmaker', and savaging Netanyahu over Gaza. It is real influence, and it has a domestic use. The more the West needs Ankara, the freer his hand at home, where he has jailed his strongest rival and hundreds of opposition officials and will host NATO's leaders next month behind 40,000 security personnel. The same assertiveness that makes Turkey useful to Washington also had its jets harassing European defence ministers off Cyprus.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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ua98

Zelensky says Russia weighs five scenarios to expand war via Belarus and Bryansk

President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his May 20 evening address that Russia is considering five scenarios for additional attacks against Ukraine from an axis through Belarus and the Russian border city of Bryansk, targeting the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction. After a meeting of Ukraine's Supreme Commander-in-Chief Staff he ordered reinforcement of the northern flank, instructed the Foreign Ministry to escalate diplomatic pressure on Minsk, and warned Belarus would face 'significant consequences' if it lets Russia draw it into the war. He added that Ukrainian intelligence assesses Russia lacks the capacity for covert mobilisation of an extra 100,000 troops and may instead attempt 'political decisions of a different format,' citing recent Kremlin moves on Moldova's Transnistria region.

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President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his May 20 evening address that Russia is considering five scenarios for additional attacks against Ukraine from an axis through Belarus and the Russian border city of Bryansk, targeting the Chernihiv-Kyiv direction. After a meeting of Ukraine's Supreme Commander-in-Chief Staff he ordered reinforcement of the northern flank, instructed the Foreign Ministry to escalate diplomatic pressure on Minsk, and warned Belarus would face 'significant consequences' if it lets Russia draw it into the war. He added that Ukrainian intelligence assesses Russia lacks the capacity for covert mobilisation of an extra 100,000 troops and may instead attempt 'political decisions of a different format,' citing recent Kremlin moves on Moldova's Transnistria region.

us98

US gasoline tops $4 in all 50 states as Iran war nears three-month mark

AAA reported on May 20 that average regular-gasoline prices crossed $4 a gallon in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, with seven states above $5 and California at $6.15. The national average of $4.56 is up 53% since the U.S.-Iran war began on Feb 28, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed throughout the conflict. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan warned the average could break the all-time $5.03 record if the strait remains shut through mid-summer.

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AAA reported on May 20 that average regular-gasoline prices crossed $4 a gallon in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, with seven states above $5 and California at $6.15. The national average of $4.56 is up 53% since the U.S.-Iran war began on Feb 28, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed throughout the conflict. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan warned the average could break the all-time $5.03 record if the strait remains shut through mid-summer.

us97

Iran warns of widening war as US-Iran talks continue; Israel faces global backlash over flotilla treatment

Iran's army threatened to 'open new fronts' beyond the region if it comes under renewed attack, as US President Donald Trump said talks with Tehran were in the final stages but added he was 'in no hurry.' Meanwhile, global outrage mounted over a video posted by Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir showing detained Gaza aid flotilla activists kneeling with hands tied, prompting multiple countries to summon Israeli ambassadors.

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Iran's army threatened to 'open new fronts' beyond the region if it comes under renewed attack, as US President Donald Trump said talks with Tehran were in the final stages but added he was 'in no hurry.' Meanwhile, global outrage mounted over a video posted by Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir showing detained Gaza aid flotilla activists kneeling with hands tied, prompting multiple countries to summon Israeli ambassadors.

ua95

Ukraine surpasses Russia in daily assaults for first time, Syrskyi warns of possible Belarus operation

Ukraine’s Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky said Ukrainian forces have, for the first time, exceeded Russian forces in the number of daily assaults. He warned that Russia is actively planning offensive operations from Belarus, which would expand the front line. Syrsky also reported that Russian forces have concentrated about 99,000 troops in the Pokrovsk direction.

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Ukraine’s Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky said Ukrainian forces have, for the first time, exceeded Russian forces in the number of daily assaults. He warned that Russia is actively planning offensive operations from Belarus, which would expand the front line. Syrsky also reported that Russian forces have concentrated about 99,000 troops in the Pokrovsk direction.

us93

Fed minutes: majority of officials see possible rate hikes if inflation persists due to Iran war

A majority of Federal Reserve officials believed the central bank could raise interest rates if inflation stays high, according to minutes from the April 28-29 policy meeting. The fallout from the Iran war has driven up energy and commodity prices, complicating the outlook as Kevin Warsh prepares to become Fed chair. The minutes also showed that many officials raised concerns about cybersecurity risks, particularly from AI-powered attacks on financial systems.

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A majority of Federal Reserve officials believed the central bank could raise interest rates if inflation stays high, according to minutes from the April 28-29 policy meeting. The fallout from the Iran war has driven up energy and commodity prices, complicating the outlook as Kevin Warsh prepares to become Fed chair. The minutes also showed that many officials raised concerns about cybersecurity risks, particularly from AI-powered attacks on financial systems.

gb92

English councils paying up to £2m per child for illegal unregistered children's homes

A BBC investigation published on May 20 found that English councils are placing around 800 of the most vulnerable children in unregistered — and therefore illegal — children's homes, with bills running as high as £2 million per child per year in extreme cases. Despite a 2021 ban on such homes for under-16s introduced after earlier BBC reporting, the practice has expanded as registered placements for children with complex needs collapse, private providers proliferate, and Ofsted's registration backlog stretches to 18 months. Spending on residential care has doubled in four years and tripled in eight, while 84% of England's children's homes are now privately run; Ofsted has yet to successfully prosecute a single illegal provider.

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A BBC investigation published on May 20 found that English councils are placing around 800 of the most vulnerable children in unregistered — and therefore illegal — children's homes, with bills running as high as £2 million per child per year in extreme cases. Despite a 2021 ban on such homes for under-16s introduced after earlier BBC reporting, the practice has expanded as registered placements for children with complex needs collapse, private providers proliferate, and Ofsted's registration backlog stretches to 18 months. Spending on residential care has doubled in four years and tripled in eight, while 84% of England's children's homes are now privately run; Ofsted has yet to successfully prosecute a single illegal provider.

tr92

Ankara's draft maritime jurisdiction law reignites Aegean tensions ahead of NATO summit

Turkey's draft 'Maritime Jurisdiction Areas Law,' first unveiled on May 12 in Ankara by DEHUKAM director Mustafa Başkara and politically backed by presidential foreign-policy adviser Çağrı Erhan, is expected to reach parliament after the nine-day Eid holiday and ahead of the July 7–8 NATO summit in Ankara. Greek officials, who pressed visiting Turkish-Greek Forum members on 'why now?' during a May 17 visit to Athens, fear provisions granting the Turkish president authority over maritime law and may seek U.S. and EU pressure to delay or amend it; Ankara, with rare opposition CHP support and the NATO meeting as leverage, intends to enact the framework legislation while the iron is hot. The draft text does not mention 'Blue Homeland,' contains no maps, and covers exclusive economic zones without addressing 'grey zones' or sovereignty over specific Aegean islands.

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Turkey's draft 'Maritime Jurisdiction Areas Law,' first unveiled on May 12 in Ankara by DEHUKAM director Mustafa Başkara and politically backed by presidential foreign-policy adviser Çağrı Erhan, is expected to reach parliament after the nine-day Eid holiday and ahead of the July 7–8 NATO summit in Ankara. Greek officials, who pressed visiting Turkish-Greek Forum members on 'why now?' during a May 17 visit to Athens, fear provisions granting the Turkish president authority over maritime law and may seek U.S. and EU pressure to delay or amend it; Ankara, with rare opposition CHP support and the NATO meeting as leverage, intends to enact the framework legislation while the iron is hot. The draft text does not mention 'Blue Homeland,' contains no maps, and covers exclusive economic zones without addressing 'grey zones' or sovereignty over specific Aegean islands.

us92

Trump and Netanyahu hold tense call over revised Iran peace memo drafted by Qatar and Pakistan

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a tense phone call Tuesday to discuss a revised peace memo drafted by Qatar and Pakistan aimed at ending the war against Iran, three sources told Axios. Netanyahu was left incensed, with one source saying his "hair was on fire" after the call, as he seeks to resume hostilities against Iran. Trump said Wednesday that talks are in their "final stages" and that Netanyahu "will do whatever I want him to do."

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U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a tense phone call Tuesday to discuss a revised peace memo drafted by Qatar and Pakistan aimed at ending the war against Iran, three sources told Axios. Netanyahu was left incensed, with one source saying his "hair was on fire" after the call, as he seeks to resume hostilities against Iran. Trump said Wednesday that talks are in their "final stages" and that Netanyahu "will do whatever I want him to do."

gb89

Russian Su-35 and Su-27 jets dangerously intercept RAF Rivet Joint over Black Sea

Two Russian fighter jets repeatedly and dangerously intercepted an unarmed RAF Rivet Joint surveillance aircraft over the Black Sea in mid-April, the UK Ministry of Defence said on Wednesday. A Su-35 flew close enough to trigger emergency systems and disable the autopilot, while a Su-27 conducted six passes, coming within six metres of the British plane's nose. Defence Secretary John Healey called the actions 'dangerous and unacceptable' and said they created a serious risk of escalation.

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Two Russian fighter jets repeatedly and dangerously intercepted an unarmed RAF Rivet Joint surveillance aircraft over the Black Sea in mid-April, the UK Ministry of Defence said on Wednesday. A Su-35 flew close enough to trigger emergency systems and disable the autopilot, while a Su-27 conducted six passes, coming within six metres of the British plane's nose. Defence Secretary John Healey called the actions 'dangerous and unacceptable' and said they created a serious risk of escalation.

de89

Merz says Berlin hopes Xi will press Putin to end Ukraine war, reaffirms support for Kyiv

At a joint press conference in Berlin with Swiss President Guy Parmelin on May 20, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Germany does not expect fundamental changes in Russia-China strategic relations but hopes Xi Jinping will use Vladimir Putin's Beijing visit to press for an end to the war in Ukraine. Merz called for serious negotiations involving Ukraine, Russia, the United States and Europeans and reiterated continued German military and humanitarian support for Kyiv. Putin arrived in Beijing on May 19 and signed a declaration with Xi on building a multipolar world order.

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At a joint press conference in Berlin with Swiss President Guy Parmelin on May 20, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Germany does not expect fundamental changes in Russia-China strategic relations but hopes Xi Jinping will use Vladimir Putin's Beijing visit to press for an end to the war in Ukraine. Merz called for serious negotiations involving Ukraine, Russia, the United States and Europeans and reiterated continued German military and humanitarian support for Kyiv. Putin arrived in Beijing on May 19 and signed a declaration with Xi on building a multipolar world order.