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Global Briefing May 22

Iran's Hormuz Blockade Sets Indo-Pacific Template as Russia Develops Seabed Nuclear Missiles

A Foreign Affairs analysis published Friday warns Iran's late-February closure of the 21-nautical-mile Strait of Hormuz has set a "cheap, fast, and devastating" template for the Strait of Malacca (40% of global trade), the Taiwan Strait (Bloomberg: a blockade could erase 5.3% of global GDP) and the Luzon and Lombok straits. The same day, German broadcasters WDR/NDR revealed Russia's secret "Skythen" programme to station nuclear-armed Skif missiles on the seabed; Ukraine documented 695 Russian torture methods and 406 POW deaths in custody; US economic confidence fell to -45 as Iran-war petrol prices pushed the gallon to $4.55; Pakistan's Field Marshal Munir landed in Tehran to finalise a US-Iran letter of intent.

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us · United States

Iran War Costs Reach US: Cyber, Oil, Jobs

The Iran war reached American homes, workplaces and military planning this week: water systems in at least 12 states were disrupted, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to roughly 304.8 million barrels, and employers cut 23,000 jobs in July. The Pentagon then ordered industry to accelerate missile production as Patriot and THAAD inventories tightened.

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gb · United Kingdom

Britain Rations Scarce Capacity: Prisons, Water, Migration

Britain spent the week rationing prison cells, housing, enforcement officers and water. The revised prisoner-release scheme still covers PC Andrew Harper's killers; illegal-working arrests passed 17,000; five people were arrested after three nights of disorder in Thetford; and 23 million customers faced hosepipe bans before a fifth heatwave.

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fr · France

France's Climate Emergency Shapes Presidential Race

France's hottest July on record turned drought and fire into the setting for the 2027 presidential contest. Average temperature reached 24.9?C, fires burned at least 120,000 hectares and unemployment rose to 8.3 percent. Russian-linked fabrications then targeted Gabriel Attal and other candidates as debt-service costs climbed to ?64 billion.

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de · Germany

Germany's Safety Margins Shrink: Drone, Rhine, Gas

Germany's week joined security exposure to physical scarcity. An explosive drone was found beside the Leipzig/Halle runway, Russian-linked fabrications targeted September election candidates, the Rhine approached an impassable level at Kaub, gas storage hovered near 47 percent, and heat deaths for the season reached an estimated 11,900.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Deep Strikes vs. Air Defense Shortage

Ukraine's offensive reach expanded while its defensive shield thinned. A Russian barrage killed 17 around Kyiv after all 28 missiles got through; Black Sea attacks cut grain exports by a third; Kyiv's 40-day drone campaign hit more than 1,700 Russian targets but failed to force talks; and Zelensky warned that up to 50,000 North Korean troops could deploy.

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tr · Turkey

Turkey Turns Regional Disorder Into Leverage

Turkey converted a week of surrounding conflict into diplomatic leverage: it joined Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in a mutual-defence pact, restricted Black Sea traffic after attacks on Turkish-owned ships, and pressed for a merchant-vessel moratorium. At home, ?zg?r ?zel's New Party deepened the opposition split as parliament prepared a conditional-amnesty framework for PKK members.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us95

Gallup economic confidence falls to -45, worst since 2022, as Iran-war petrol prices push US gallon to $4.55

US economic confidence fell to -45 in Gallup's latest Economic Confidence Index, the worst reading since the 2022 cost-of-living crisis, with only 16 percent of Americans rating the economy as good or excellent and 76 percent saying conditions are getting worse. The poll, released Friday, ties the slide to inflation and a petrol-price surge to $4.55 per gallon — up from below $3 before the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February — driven by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Washington's naval siege of Iranian ports. The reading lands as a separate New York Times/Siena poll this week showed only 31 percent approve of President Donald Trump's handling of the war, even as Trump has said the economic fallout does not factor into his approach to Iran.

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US economic confidence fell to -45 in Gallup's latest Economic Confidence Index, the worst reading since the 2022 cost-of-living crisis, with only 16 percent of Americans rating the economy as good or excellent and 76 percent saying conditions are getting worse. The poll, released Friday, ties the slide to inflation and a petrol-price surge to $4.55 per gallon — up from below $3 before the US-Israeli war on Iran began in late February — driven by Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Washington's naval siege of Iranian ports. The reading lands as a separate New York Times/Siena poll this week showed only 31 percent approve of President Donald Trump's handling of the war, even as Trump has said the economic fallout does not factor into his approach to Iran.

ua95

Ukraine documents 695 Russian torture methods, 406 POW deaths, and 2,112 sham convictions in 'Made in Russia. Delivered to Captivity' project

Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets unveiled the "Made in Russia. Delivered to Captivity" project on Thursday, formally documenting 695 distinct torture methods used by Russia against Ukrainian prisoners of war and confirming that 406 Ukrainian POWs and civilian hostages with captured status verified by the ICRC or other sources have died from torture in Russian custody, most often from broken ribs and internal organ damage. He further reported 860 logged cases of improper detention conditions, 2,112 Ukrainians sentenced by Russian courts in what he called "a separate crime" of illegal rulings of 20-25 years or life, and a network of 186 verified holding sites across Russia, occupied territories and Siberia. Lubinets publicly criticised the International Committee of the Red Cross for declining his separate invitation to attend, citing the unanswered 2022 Olenivka massacre of 53 ICRC-verified POWs as evidence that "there is no international human rights protection system" functioning against Russia.

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Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets unveiled the "Made in Russia. Delivered to Captivity" project on Thursday, formally documenting 695 distinct torture methods used by Russia against Ukrainian prisoners of war and confirming that 406 Ukrainian POWs and civilian hostages with captured status verified by the ICRC or other sources have died from torture in Russian custody, most often from broken ribs and internal organ damage. He further reported 860 logged cases of improper detention conditions, 2,112 Ukrainians sentenced by Russian courts in what he called "a separate crime" of illegal rulings of 20-25 years or life, and a network of 186 verified holding sites across Russia, occupied territories and Siberia. Lubinets publicly criticised the International Committee of the Red Cross for declining his separate invitation to attend, citing the unanswered 2022 Olenivka massacre of 53 ICRC-verified POWs as evidence that "there is no international human rights protection system" functioning against Russia.

de95

WDR and NDR reveal Russia's secret 'Skythen' programme to station nuclear-armed Skif missiles on the seabed

German broadcasters WDR and NDR, after a months-long investigation citing Western intelligence sources, reported on May 21 that Russia is developing a secret programme codenamed "Skythen" to station nuclear-armed ballistic missiles on the seabed at depths of several hundred metres, where they would be hidden from NATO detection and remotely activated in wartime. The system pairs the 96-metre Severodvinsk-based vessel "Zvezdochka" — and possibly the special submarine "Sarov" — with a modified "Skif" missile derived from the submarine-launched "Sineva", with a reported range of several thousand kilometres and first tests said to have taken place "several years ago." The Pentagon studied an analogous concept codenamed "Orca" in 1980 before abandoning it, and the 1971 Seabed Treaty bars such emplacement in international waters but exempts a state's own coastal regions — the broadcasters said Russia would place Skythen in its own waters.

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German broadcasters WDR and NDR, after a months-long investigation citing Western intelligence sources, reported on May 21 that Russia is developing a secret programme codenamed "Skythen" to station nuclear-armed ballistic missiles on the seabed at depths of several hundred metres, where they would be hidden from NATO detection and remotely activated in wartime. The system pairs the 96-metre Severodvinsk-based vessel "Zvezdochka" — and possibly the special submarine "Sarov" — with a modified "Skif" missile derived from the submarine-launched "Sineva", with a reported range of several thousand kilometres and first tests said to have taken place "several years ago." The Pentagon studied an analogous concept codenamed "Orca" in 1980 before abandoning it, and the 1971 Seabed Treaty bars such emplacement in international waters but exempts a state's own coastal regions — the broadcasters said Russia would place Skythen in its own waters.

gb95

UK April public-sector borrowing hits £24.3bn, highest since 2020 Covid, as debt-interest sets April record £10.3bn and motor-fuel sales plunge 10.2%

UK public-sector borrowing reached £24.3 billion in April, the highest April figure since the Covid pandemic in 2020 and £4.9 billion above the year-earlier total, with debt-interest payments hitting a record £10.3 billion for the month and inflation-linked social benefits adding £2.7 billion to net spending, the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday. Separately released retail figures showed sales volumes falling 1.3 percent over the same month — the steepest monthly drop in nearly a year — dragged down by a 10.2 percent collapse in motor-fuel sales, the largest since November 2020, as petrol prices spiked on the Iran war. Pantheon Macroeconomics' Rob Wood estimated that debt-interest costs in 2026/27 will now run about £15 billion above the Spring Statement assumption if gilt yields stay where they are, threatening Chancellor Rachel Reeves' £23.6 billion headroom against her own fiscal rule.

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UK public-sector borrowing reached £24.3 billion in April, the highest April figure since the Covid pandemic in 2020 and £4.9 billion above the year-earlier total, with debt-interest payments hitting a record £10.3 billion for the month and inflation-linked social benefits adding £2.7 billion to net spending, the Office for National Statistics said on Thursday. Separately released retail figures showed sales volumes falling 1.3 percent over the same month — the steepest monthly drop in nearly a year — dragged down by a 10.2 percent collapse in motor-fuel sales, the largest since November 2020, as petrol prices spiked on the Iran war. Pantheon Macroeconomics' Rob Wood estimated that debt-interest costs in 2026/27 will now run about £15 billion above the Spring Statement assumption if gilt yields stay where they are, threatening Chancellor Rachel Reeves' £23.6 billion headroom against her own fiscal rule.

tr95

MHP leader Bahçeli urges Kılıçdaroğlu to step aside and broker compromise candidate with Özel after Ankara court voids CHP's 2023 congress

After Ankara's Regional Court of Appeals on May 21 declared the CHP's November 2023 congress "absolutely null and void" — reinstating Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as leader of Turkey's main opposition, suspending Özgür Özel's leadership team along with the party's Central Executive Board, Party Assembly and High Disciplinary Board, and rolling the CHP back to its pre-congress structure pending appeal — Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli intervened on CNN Türk to urge Kılıçdaroğlu to "undertake a historic responsibility," waive his return, and negotiate a joint formula with Özel. Bahçeli framed the call as protecting the CHP from chaos and preserving President Erdoğan's "Terror-Free Türkiye" roadmap ahead of the NATO summit, signalling a backroom plan in which both Kılıçdaroğlu and Özel would step aside in favour of a compromise candidate at a fresh congress. Özel rejected what he called the "comfortable, eternal opposition seats" being offered, with the ruling open to appeal before the Court of Cassation within two weeks.

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After Ankara's Regional Court of Appeals on May 21 declared the CHP's November 2023 congress "absolutely null and void" — reinstating Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as leader of Turkey's main opposition, suspending Özgür Özel's leadership team along with the party's Central Executive Board, Party Assembly and High Disciplinary Board, and rolling the CHP back to its pre-congress structure pending appeal — Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli intervened on CNN Türk to urge Kılıçdaroğlu to "undertake a historic responsibility," waive his return, and negotiate a joint formula with Özel. Bahçeli framed the call as protecting the CHP from chaos and preserving President Erdoğan's "Terror-Free Türkiye" roadmap ahead of the NATO summit, signalling a backroom plan in which both Kılıçdaroğlu and Özel would step aside in favour of a compromise candidate at a fresh congress. Özel rejected what he called the "comfortable, eternal opposition seats" being offered, with the ruling open to appeal before the Court of Cassation within two weeks.

fr92

Financial prosecutors search Élysée Palace in Pantheon-ceremony contracts probe, first such search since 2018 Benalla affair

French financial prosecutors searched the Élysée Palace on Thursday in a corruption probe over the awarding of public contracts to organise Pantheon induction ceremonies — the first search of the presidency since the 2018 Benalla affair during Emmanuel Macron's first term. The investigation, opened by financial prosecutor Pascal Prache in October 2025, focuses on the repeated selection of the events company Shortcut Events to host more than two decades of ceremonies at the Paris mausoleum until 2024, with each event estimated by Le Canard Enchaîné at around €2 million. The presidency authorised the search after April's attempt was rebuffed on constitutional inviolability grounds, stating the procedure does not target Macron and that safeguards for Article 67 and national-defence secrecy were in place.

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French financial prosecutors searched the Élysée Palace on Thursday in a corruption probe over the awarding of public contracts to organise Pantheon induction ceremonies — the first search of the presidency since the 2018 Benalla affair during Emmanuel Macron's first term. The investigation, opened by financial prosecutor Pascal Prache in October 2025, focuses on the repeated selection of the events company Shortcut Events to host more than two decades of ceremonies at the Paris mausoleum until 2024, with each event estimated by Le Canard Enchaîné at around €2 million. The presidency authorised the search after April's attempt was rebuffed on constitutional inviolability grounds, stating the procedure does not target Macron and that safeguards for Article 67 and national-defence secrecy were in place.

us92

Strait of Hormuz standoff enters fourth month with US and Iran under economic strain

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is approaching its fourth month, marked by mutual blockades: Iran charges ships up to $2 million for safe passage while the US enforces a naval embargo on Iranian oil exports. Iran is losing an estimated $435 million per day in trade, with public finances suffering an estimated $17 billion loss as of Friday, according to FDD senior fellow Miad Maleki. US President Donald Trump faces pressure from Gulf allies and domestic inflation ahead of November mid-term elections.

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The Strait of Hormuz crisis is approaching its fourth month, marked by mutual blockades: Iran charges ships up to $2 million for safe passage while the US enforces a naval embargo on Iranian oil exports. Iran is losing an estimated $435 million per day in trade, with public finances suffering an estimated $17 billion loss as of Friday, according to FDD senior fellow Miad Maleki. US President Donald Trump faces pressure from Gulf allies and domestic inflation ahead of November mid-term elections.

ua92

Ukraine and Russia agree on technical steps to evacuate 6,000 civilians from Oleshky area

Ukraine and Russia have agreed on technical steps to evacuate approximately 6,000 civilians, including about 200 children, from the Oleshky area of Kherson region, Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets said on May 22. The evacuation, planned toward Ukrainian-controlled territory, follows negotiations held on May 15. Lubinets described the situation in Oleshky as a humanitarian catastrophe, with civilians facing daily combat, drone strikes, and shortages of food and water.

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Ukraine and Russia have agreed on technical steps to evacuate approximately 6,000 civilians, including about 200 children, from the Oleshky area of Kherson region, Ukrainian Parliament Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets said on May 22. The evacuation, planned toward Ukrainian-controlled territory, follows negotiations held on May 15. Lubinets described the situation in Oleshky as a humanitarian catastrophe, with civilians facing daily combat, drone strikes, and shortages of food and water.

us90

Trump opposes Hormuz tolls, vows to seize Iran's uranium; 11 countries summon Israeli envoys over Ben-Gvir flotilla video; UN reports 125,000 Gaza skin infections

US President Donald Trump said the United States opposes any tolls on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and vowed Iran will not be allowed to retain highly enriched uranium. Eleven countries, including eight European nations, summoned Israeli ambassadors over a video showing National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir overseeing the mistreatment of detained activists from the Global Sumud Flotilla. The UN’s Palestine agency reported more than 125,000 skin infection cases in Gaza linked to rats and parasites during the first five months of 2026.

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US President Donald Trump said the United States opposes any tolls on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and vowed Iran will not be allowed to retain highly enriched uranium. Eleven countries, including eight European nations, summoned Israeli ambassadors over a video showing National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir overseeing the mistreatment of detained activists from the Global Sumud Flotilla. The UN’s Palestine agency reported more than 125,000 skin infection cases in Gaza linked to rats and parasites during the first five months of 2026.

ua90

Russian strike destroys UNHCR warehouse in Dnipro, killing two and destroying $1 million in aid

A Russian missile strike on a UNHCR warehouse in Dnipro on May 20 destroyed about 900 pallets of humanitarian supplies worth over $1 million and killed at least two people, the UN agency reported. UNHCR representative in Ukraine Bernadette Castel-Hollingsworth said it was the first time a UNHCR facility had been targeted since the start of the full-scale invasion. The attack is part of a broader pattern of strikes against humanitarian convoys, the UN said.

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A Russian missile strike on a UNHCR warehouse in Dnipro on May 20 destroyed about 900 pallets of humanitarian supplies worth over $1 million and killed at least two people, the UN agency reported. UNHCR representative in Ukraine Bernadette Castel-Hollingsworth said it was the first time a UNHCR facility had been targeted since the start of the full-scale invasion. The attack is part of a broader pattern of strikes against humanitarian convoys, the UN said.