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Global Briefing May 15

Iran War, Russia-Ukraine Conflict Redraw Security Map

Saudi Arabia and the UAE struck Iran directly for the first time during the war, the New York Times reported; the US House killed an end-the-war resolution 212-212; Trump said he and Xi Jinping agreed Tehran cannot have nuclear weapons and the strait must stay open. A Russian missile killed 24 in Kyiv, and Zelenskyy called retaliation 'entirely justified', warned of Russian plans to strike Kyiv's decision-making centres and said Moscow was pressing Lukashenko into a new offensive. The US cancelled a 4,000-troop Poland rotation.

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us · United States

Trump Can't End Iran War, So He Changes Subject

This was the week the Iran war stopped being a foreign-policy story for Americans and became a domestic one: inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2%, petrol is up 39% since the fighting began, and a hundred days in the average household is $750 poorer. The economy is somehow still adding jobs. But unable to end the war that is driving the prices, the president spent the week fighting on every other front instead — his own last election, naturalised citizens, China, and the spy law that briefs him each morning.

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gb · United Kingdom

Britain Runs Out of Money for Defence and Order

John Healey's resignation as defence secretary was not an ordinary reshuffle: he walked out accusing Keir Starmer and the Treasury of refusing to pay for Britain's defence at the most dangerous moment since the Cold War, the week the entire fleet of attack submarines sat in dock. And as the state struggled to fund the things that keep a country safe abroad, it was visibly losing its grip on order at home — the Henry Nowak murder, riots in Belfast, a stabbing in a Manchester school. A government is meant to be able to do both. This one, this week, could do neither.

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fr · France

Lyhanna Murder Puts French State on Trial

The killing of 11-year-old Lyhanna did what no ordinary political crisis had managed: it put the French state itself in the dock. Her suspected killer had been accused of raping a 10-year-old the previous August and was never questioned. More than 60,000 people marched; the justice minister apologised and ordered a review of 70,000 abuse cases while refusing to resign; the far right demanded his head. Abroad, France was helping lead the diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. At home, it could not protect a child it had been warned about.

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de · Germany

Merz Bets Germany's Future on Autonomy as US Pulls 5,000 Troops

Friedrich Merz has made his choice: a Germany less dependent on an America it no longer trusts. This week he absorbed the loss of 5,000 US troops pulled out over his criticism of the Iran war, killed the €100bn FCAS fighter jet with France, and offered Ukraine a seat inside the EU. It is a coherent bet on strategic autonomy. The catch is that the costs are arriving at home — a suspected extremist arson that blacked out 40,000 homes, and a record 85,837 politically motivated crimes — before the autonomy does.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Offers to Freeze War by Escalating Strikes

Ukraine spent the week doing two things that only look contradictory: offering to freeze the war and fighting it harder than ever. Zelenskyy signalled he would accept halting the conflict along the current front line, and Europe lined up behind him. At the same time his long-range drones set Russia's fuel system alight, spreading petrol shortages to 25 regions. The escalation is not at odds with the peace offer — it is what gives the offer its weight. Whether Moscow ever picks it up depends less on the talks than on how dry Russia's pumps run.

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tr · Turkey

Erdoğan Declares Turkey a 'Playmaker' at Security Conference

Erdoğan spent the week looking indispensable to the world — mediating between Washington and Tehran, branding Turkey a regional 'playmaker', and savaging Netanyahu over Gaza. It is real influence, and it has a domestic use. The more the West needs Ankara, the freer his hand at home, where he has jailed his strongest rival and hundreds of opposition officials and will host NATO's leaders next month behind 40,000 security personnel. The same assertiveness that makes Turkey useful to Washington also had its jets harassing European defence ministers off Cyprus.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us95

Saudi Arabia and UAE made first direct strikes on Iran during recent war, NYT reports; US House deadlocks 212-212 on resolution to end the conflict

The New York Times reported on May 15, citing current and former senior US officials, that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates carried out their first direct strikes on Iran during the recent war, retaliating for Iranian attacks on their territory; neither government confirmed. The US House killed a Democratic resolution to end the war by a 212-212 tie — the third such vote this year, days after the Senate defeated a similar measure 50-49. China called for a 'comprehensive and lasting' ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; Trump told reporters returning from China that he and Xi Jinping agreed Tehran must not have nuclear weapons and that the strait must stay open.

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The New York Times reported on May 15, citing current and former senior US officials, that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates carried out their first direct strikes on Iran during the recent war, retaliating for Iranian attacks on their territory; neither government confirmed. The US House killed a Democratic resolution to end the war by a 212-212 tie — the third such vote this year, days after the Senate defeated a similar measure 50-49. China called for a 'comprehensive and lasting' ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; Trump told reporters returning from China that he and Xi Jinping agreed Tehran must not have nuclear weapons and that the strait must stay open.

ua95

Zelenskyy says Ukraine 'entirely justified' to strike Russian oil and arms industry after Kyiv missile kills 24, as US cancels 4,000-troop Poland rotation

After a Russian cruise missile destroyed an apartment block in Kyiv on May 14 and killed at least 24 people, including three children, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on May 15 that Ukraine was 'entirely justified' to retaliate against Russia's oil industry and military production, and warned of intercepted Russian plans to strike Ukraine's political and military 'decision-making centres'. The same day the US Army confirmed the cancellation of a planned rotation of 4,000 troops to Poland; Polish defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz tied the move to Trump's earlier withdrawal of 5,000 soldiers from Germany and said Poland could end up with a 'permanent, rather than rotational' US presence. Trump told reporters the Ukrainians 'took a big hit' and said the strikes could set back peace efforts.

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After a Russian cruise missile destroyed an apartment block in Kyiv on May 14 and killed at least 24 people, including three children, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on May 15 that Ukraine was 'entirely justified' to retaliate against Russia's oil industry and military production, and warned of intercepted Russian plans to strike Ukraine's political and military 'decision-making centres'. The same day the US Army confirmed the cancellation of a planned rotation of 4,000 troops to Poland; Polish defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz tied the move to Trump's earlier withdrawal of 5,000 soldiers from Germany and said Poland could end up with a 'permanent, rather than rotational' US presence. Trump told reporters the Ukrainians 'took a big hit' and said the strikes could set back peace efforts.

de95

Merz and Trump close their Iran-policy rift in phone call as the chancellor warns young Germans against moving to the United States

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he and US President Donald Trump 'agreed' in a May 15 phone call as Trump returned from China that Iran 'must come to the negotiating table now', that the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened, and that Tehran must not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons. The call ended a rift that erupted in late April when Merz told schoolchildren in the Sauerland that the United States had 'no strategy' for talks with Tehran and that the entire American nation was being humiliated by Iran's leadership, prompting Trump to call Merz's performance 'terrible', describe Germany as 'broken' and announce the withdrawal of 5,000 US soldiers from the country. Hours before the call, at the Catholic Day in Würzburg, Merz told young Germans he 'would not recommend' that his children study or work in the United States, citing the country's 'social climate.'

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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he and US President Donald Trump 'agreed' in a May 15 phone call as Trump returned from China that Iran 'must come to the negotiating table now', that the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened, and that Tehran must not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons. The call ended a rift that erupted in late April when Merz told schoolchildren in the Sauerland that the United States had 'no strategy' for talks with Tehran and that the entire American nation was being humiliated by Iran's leadership, prompting Trump to call Merz's performance 'terrible', describe Germany as 'broken' and announce the withdrawal of 5,000 US soldiers from the country. Hours before the call, at the Catholic Day in Würzburg, Merz told young Germans he 'would not recommend' that his children study or work in the United States, citing the country's 'social climate.'

ua92

Zelensky says Ukraine obtained documents showing Russia plans strikes on 'decision-making centers'

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 15 that Ukraine's Defense Intelligence obtained Russian documents listing nearly two dozen political centers and military command posts as targets for new missile and drone strikes. Satellite images attached to his statement, dated May 6, showed coordinates of the presidential office, residence, and underground facilities in central Kyiv. Zelensky vowed long-range sanctions against Russia and said Ukraine had taken the intelligence into account.

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President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 15 that Ukraine's Defense Intelligence obtained Russian documents listing nearly two dozen political centers and military command posts as targets for new missile and drone strikes. Satellite images attached to his statement, dated May 6, showed coordinates of the presidential office, residence, and underground facilities in central Kyiv. Zelensky vowed long-range sanctions against Russia and said Ukraine had taken the intelligence into account.

fr90

Macron concedes France has been displaced in Africa by China, Türkiye and the United States

At the closing of the 'Africa Forward' business forum on May 15, French President Emmanuel Macron said France had been 'shaken up in Africa' over the past 25 years and blamed decades of complacency and arrogance by French institutions and companies. He named China, Türkiye and the United States as the partners African states are turning to instead, calling those choices 'rational' economic decisions, and urged a 'conceptual revolution' away from the donor-recipient model toward co-investment and co-production.

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At the closing of the 'Africa Forward' business forum on May 15, French President Emmanuel Macron said France had been 'shaken up in Africa' over the past 25 years and blamed decades of complacency and arrogance by French institutions and companies. He named China, Türkiye and the United States as the partners African states are turning to instead, calling those choices 'rational' economic decisions, and urged a 'conceptual revolution' away from the donor-recipient model toward co-investment and co-production.

de90

Germany's Top General Warns Russia Could Pose Direct Military Challenge to NATO by 2029

Germany's top military commander, Gen. Carsten Breuer, warned Friday that Russia is rapidly expanding its armed forces and could be capable of waging a large-scale war against the West by 2029. Speaking at a German Catholic gathering in Wurzburg, Breuer said intelligence reports show Moscow is establishing new garrisons and building a weapons arsenal for a major conflict. He urged NATO allies to boost their military capabilities to deter any potential attack.

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Germany's top military commander, Gen. Carsten Breuer, warned Friday that Russia is rapidly expanding its armed forces and could be capable of waging a large-scale war against the West by 2029. Speaking at a German Catholic gathering in Wurzburg, Breuer said intelligence reports show Moscow is establishing new garrisons and building a weapons arsenal for a major conflict. He urged NATO allies to boost their military capabilities to deter any potential attack.

gb90

UK bars 11 foreign far-right activists ahead of Tommy Robinson rally as Met deploys 4,000 officers and live facial recognition

The British government on May 15 barred 11 foreign far-right activists — including the US anti-Islam influencer Valentina Gomez, Polish MEP Dominik Tarczyński, Dutch influencer Eva Vlaardingerbroek, Belgian politician Filip Dewinter and AfD MEP Petr Bystron — from entering the UK before Saturday's 'Unite the Kingdom' rally organised by Tommy Robinson. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the country was 'in a fight for the soul of this country' and accused the organisers of 'peddling hatred and division'. The Metropolitan Police is deploying more than 4,000 officers, drones and armoured vehicles, and using live facial recognition at a protest for the first time, as the rally coincides with a Nakba Day pro-Palestinian march and the FA Cup final at Wembley.

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The British government on May 15 barred 11 foreign far-right activists — including the US anti-Islam influencer Valentina Gomez, Polish MEP Dominik Tarczyński, Dutch influencer Eva Vlaardingerbroek, Belgian politician Filip Dewinter and AfD MEP Petr Bystron — from entering the UK before Saturday's 'Unite the Kingdom' rally organised by Tommy Robinson. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the country was 'in a fight for the soul of this country' and accused the organisers of 'peddling hatred and division'. The Metropolitan Police is deploying more than 4,000 officers, drones and armoured vehicles, and using live facial recognition at a protest for the first time, as the rally coincides with a Nakba Day pro-Palestinian march and the FA Cup final at Wembley.

us88

US redirects 75 commercial ships in Strait of Hormuz blockade

The United States has redirected 75 commercial vessels and disabled four others as part of its ongoing blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, the US Central Command said on X. Over 20 US warships are maintaining the blockade, according to the same post.

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The United States has redirected 75 commercial vessels and disabled four others as part of its ongoing blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, the US Central Command said on X. Over 20 US warships are maintaining the blockade, according to the same post.

ua88

Zelensky says Russia pressuring Belarus to join new offensive against Ukraine or NATO

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 15 that Kyiv has evidence of Russian efforts to persuade Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko to join new offensive operations, potentially targeting Ukraine's Chernihiv-Kyiv direction or a NATO member state. Zelensky said Ukraine possesses details of the Russia-Belarus discussions and has instructed its defense forces to prepare a response plan. Belarus has allowed Russian forces on its territory since 2022 but has not officially entered the war.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 15 that Kyiv has evidence of Russian efforts to persuade Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko to join new offensive operations, potentially targeting Ukraine's Chernihiv-Kyiv direction or a NATO member state. Zelensky said Ukraine possesses details of the Russia-Belarus discussions and has instructed its defense forces to prepare a response plan. Belarus has allowed Russian forces on its territory since 2022 but has not officially entered the war.

gb88

Labour NEC Approves Andy Burnham's Makerfield Byelection Bid

Labour's national executive committee has granted Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham permission to stand in the candidate selection process for the upcoming Makerfield byelection, a party spokesman said. If selected and elected, Burnham is widely expected to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the party leadership. The pound fell to a five-week low this week as traders anticipated the leadership challenge.

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Labour's national executive committee has granted Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham permission to stand in the candidate selection process for the upcoming Makerfield byelection, a party spokesman said. If selected and elected, Burnham is widely expected to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the party leadership. The pound fell to a five-week low this week as traders anticipated the leadership challenge.