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Global Briefing May 15

Iran War, Russia-Ukraine Conflict Redraw Security Map

Saudi Arabia and the UAE struck Iran directly for the first time during the war, the New York Times reported; the US House killed an end-the-war resolution 212-212; Trump said he and Xi Jinping agreed Tehran cannot have nuclear weapons and the strait must stay open. A Russian missile killed 24 in Kyiv, and Zelenskyy called retaliation 'entirely justified', warned of Russian plans to strike Kyiv's decision-making centres and said Moscow was pressing Lukashenko into a new offensive. The US cancelled a 4,000-troop Poland rotation.

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us · United States

Trump Opens Iran War and Midterm Campaigns

Trump entered the ninth night of renewed strikes on Iran with US service members dead, gasoline back at $4 and a $1.15tn defence bill blocked in the Senate. He then used a primetime address to claim China obtained 220m voter files, though his own declassified documents showed no altered votes. TSMC promised another $100bn for US fabs as the White House searched for an economic counter-story.

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gb · United Kingdom

Andy Burnham Promises Circuit Breaker for UK State

Andy Burnham entered Downing Street promising a ten-year “circuit breaker” after Britain’s seventh change of prime minister since 2016. He scrapped a £1.8bn digital-ID plan and ordered cost-of-living relief, but debt exceeds 95% of GDP and the IMF says fiscal room is tight. An official finding that MI5 misled three courts made his promise to restore public trust more than campaign rhetoric.

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fr · France

Macron Ties France to Germany in Nuclear Deterrence Pact

Macron used his final Bastille week to place German forces inside a French nuclear exercise and offer Berlin co-production of SAMP/T NG, even as the common tank project lost its tank. Mélenchon threatened to break the arrangement and Elon Musk called Marine Le Pen France’s “last hope.” At home, Parliament passed assisted dying 291–241 while a pesticide amendment put a 78-article farm bill at risk.

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de · Germany

Merz Builds Stronger Security State Before AfD Rise

Germany raised its threat level from “abstract” to “high” as Russian influence operations favoured the AfD and an Iranian newspaper named Friedrich Merz on a revenge list. Berlin is preparing active powers for its intelligence agencies while joining a French nuclear exercise and licensing €2.5bn of arms for Ukraine. With the AfD above 40% in Saxony-Anhalt, the powers built for today’s threats could belong to tomorrow’s government.

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ua · Ukraine

Zelensky Dismisses Fedorov Amid Ukraine War Ministry Crisis

Zelensky removed Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov after his feud with Oleksandr Syrskyi became unworkable, drawing protests in at least 16 cities and an ultimatum for 24 July. The rupture came as 145 Russian troops infiltrated Kostiantynivka, a Ukrainian drone destroyed a Tu-95 at Engels-2, and Russian missiles killed 10 people aboard the grain carrier Golden Leo.

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tr · Turkey

Turkey's Montreux Convention Outlasts Erdoğan's Emergency Politics

Turkey marked 90 years of the Montreux Convention by destroying an explosive drone that washed ashore in Istanbul, proof that control of the straits cannot contain every Black Sea risk. The anniversary followed a decade since the failed coup, as Özgür Özel prepared a breakaway party and another CHP mayor was detained. Abroad, Ankara pursued influence in Ukraine and Syria without choosing a camp.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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us95

Saudi Arabia and UAE made first direct strikes on Iran during recent war, NYT reports; US House deadlocks 212-212 on resolution to end the conflict

The New York Times reported on May 15, citing current and former senior US officials, that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates carried out their first direct strikes on Iran during the recent war, retaliating for Iranian attacks on their territory; neither government confirmed. The US House killed a Democratic resolution to end the war by a 212-212 tie — the third such vote this year, days after the Senate defeated a similar measure 50-49. China called for a 'comprehensive and lasting' ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; Trump told reporters returning from China that he and Xi Jinping agreed Tehran must not have nuclear weapons and that the strait must stay open.

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The New York Times reported on May 15, citing current and former senior US officials, that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates carried out their first direct strikes on Iran during the recent war, retaliating for Iranian attacks on their territory; neither government confirmed. The US House killed a Democratic resolution to end the war by a 212-212 tie — the third such vote this year, days after the Senate defeated a similar measure 50-49. China called for a 'comprehensive and lasting' ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; Trump told reporters returning from China that he and Xi Jinping agreed Tehran must not have nuclear weapons and that the strait must stay open.

ua95

Zelenskyy says Ukraine 'entirely justified' to strike Russian oil and arms industry after Kyiv missile kills 24, as US cancels 4,000-troop Poland rotation

After a Russian cruise missile destroyed an apartment block in Kyiv on May 14 and killed at least 24 people, including three children, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on May 15 that Ukraine was 'entirely justified' to retaliate against Russia's oil industry and military production, and warned of intercepted Russian plans to strike Ukraine's political and military 'decision-making centres'. The same day the US Army confirmed the cancellation of a planned rotation of 4,000 troops to Poland; Polish defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz tied the move to Trump's earlier withdrawal of 5,000 soldiers from Germany and said Poland could end up with a 'permanent, rather than rotational' US presence. Trump told reporters the Ukrainians 'took a big hit' and said the strikes could set back peace efforts.

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After a Russian cruise missile destroyed an apartment block in Kyiv on May 14 and killed at least 24 people, including three children, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on May 15 that Ukraine was 'entirely justified' to retaliate against Russia's oil industry and military production, and warned of intercepted Russian plans to strike Ukraine's political and military 'decision-making centres'. The same day the US Army confirmed the cancellation of a planned rotation of 4,000 troops to Poland; Polish defence minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz tied the move to Trump's earlier withdrawal of 5,000 soldiers from Germany and said Poland could end up with a 'permanent, rather than rotational' US presence. Trump told reporters the Ukrainians 'took a big hit' and said the strikes could set back peace efforts.

de95

Merz and Trump close their Iran-policy rift in phone call as the chancellor warns young Germans against moving to the United States

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he and US President Donald Trump 'agreed' in a May 15 phone call as Trump returned from China that Iran 'must come to the negotiating table now', that the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened, and that Tehran must not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons. The call ended a rift that erupted in late April when Merz told schoolchildren in the Sauerland that the United States had 'no strategy' for talks with Tehran and that the entire American nation was being humiliated by Iran's leadership, prompting Trump to call Merz's performance 'terrible', describe Germany as 'broken' and announce the withdrawal of 5,000 US soldiers from the country. Hours before the call, at the Catholic Day in Würzburg, Merz told young Germans he 'would not recommend' that his children study or work in the United States, citing the country's 'social climate.'

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German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he and US President Donald Trump 'agreed' in a May 15 phone call as Trump returned from China that Iran 'must come to the negotiating table now', that the Strait of Hormuz must be reopened, and that Tehran must not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons. The call ended a rift that erupted in late April when Merz told schoolchildren in the Sauerland that the United States had 'no strategy' for talks with Tehran and that the entire American nation was being humiliated by Iran's leadership, prompting Trump to call Merz's performance 'terrible', describe Germany as 'broken' and announce the withdrawal of 5,000 US soldiers from the country. Hours before the call, at the Catholic Day in Würzburg, Merz told young Germans he 'would not recommend' that his children study or work in the United States, citing the country's 'social climate.'

ua92

Zelensky says Ukraine obtained documents showing Russia plans strikes on 'decision-making centers'

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 15 that Ukraine's Defense Intelligence obtained Russian documents listing nearly two dozen political centers and military command posts as targets for new missile and drone strikes. Satellite images attached to his statement, dated May 6, showed coordinates of the presidential office, residence, and underground facilities in central Kyiv. Zelensky vowed long-range sanctions against Russia and said Ukraine had taken the intelligence into account.

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President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 15 that Ukraine's Defense Intelligence obtained Russian documents listing nearly two dozen political centers and military command posts as targets for new missile and drone strikes. Satellite images attached to his statement, dated May 6, showed coordinates of the presidential office, residence, and underground facilities in central Kyiv. Zelensky vowed long-range sanctions against Russia and said Ukraine had taken the intelligence into account.

fr90

Macron concedes France has been displaced in Africa by China, Türkiye and the United States

At the closing of the 'Africa Forward' business forum on May 15, French President Emmanuel Macron said France had been 'shaken up in Africa' over the past 25 years and blamed decades of complacency and arrogance by French institutions and companies. He named China, Türkiye and the United States as the partners African states are turning to instead, calling those choices 'rational' economic decisions, and urged a 'conceptual revolution' away from the donor-recipient model toward co-investment and co-production.

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At the closing of the 'Africa Forward' business forum on May 15, French President Emmanuel Macron said France had been 'shaken up in Africa' over the past 25 years and blamed decades of complacency and arrogance by French institutions and companies. He named China, Türkiye and the United States as the partners African states are turning to instead, calling those choices 'rational' economic decisions, and urged a 'conceptual revolution' away from the donor-recipient model toward co-investment and co-production.

de90

Germany's Top General Warns Russia Could Pose Direct Military Challenge to NATO by 2029

Germany's top military commander, Gen. Carsten Breuer, warned Friday that Russia is rapidly expanding its armed forces and could be capable of waging a large-scale war against the West by 2029. Speaking at a German Catholic gathering in Wurzburg, Breuer said intelligence reports show Moscow is establishing new garrisons and building a weapons arsenal for a major conflict. He urged NATO allies to boost their military capabilities to deter any potential attack.

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Germany's top military commander, Gen. Carsten Breuer, warned Friday that Russia is rapidly expanding its armed forces and could be capable of waging a large-scale war against the West by 2029. Speaking at a German Catholic gathering in Wurzburg, Breuer said intelligence reports show Moscow is establishing new garrisons and building a weapons arsenal for a major conflict. He urged NATO allies to boost their military capabilities to deter any potential attack.

gb90

UK bars 11 foreign far-right activists ahead of Tommy Robinson rally as Met deploys 4,000 officers and live facial recognition

The British government on May 15 barred 11 foreign far-right activists — including the US anti-Islam influencer Valentina Gomez, Polish MEP Dominik Tarczyński, Dutch influencer Eva Vlaardingerbroek, Belgian politician Filip Dewinter and AfD MEP Petr Bystron — from entering the UK before Saturday's 'Unite the Kingdom' rally organised by Tommy Robinson. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the country was 'in a fight for the soul of this country' and accused the organisers of 'peddling hatred and division'. The Metropolitan Police is deploying more than 4,000 officers, drones and armoured vehicles, and using live facial recognition at a protest for the first time, as the rally coincides with a Nakba Day pro-Palestinian march and the FA Cup final at Wembley.

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The British government on May 15 barred 11 foreign far-right activists — including the US anti-Islam influencer Valentina Gomez, Polish MEP Dominik Tarczyński, Dutch influencer Eva Vlaardingerbroek, Belgian politician Filip Dewinter and AfD MEP Petr Bystron — from entering the UK before Saturday's 'Unite the Kingdom' rally organised by Tommy Robinson. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said the country was 'in a fight for the soul of this country' and accused the organisers of 'peddling hatred and division'. The Metropolitan Police is deploying more than 4,000 officers, drones and armoured vehicles, and using live facial recognition at a protest for the first time, as the rally coincides with a Nakba Day pro-Palestinian march and the FA Cup final at Wembley.

us88

US redirects 75 commercial ships in Strait of Hormuz blockade

The United States has redirected 75 commercial vessels and disabled four others as part of its ongoing blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, the US Central Command said on X. Over 20 US warships are maintaining the blockade, according to the same post.

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The United States has redirected 75 commercial vessels and disabled four others as part of its ongoing blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, the US Central Command said on X. Over 20 US warships are maintaining the blockade, according to the same post.

ua88

Zelensky says Russia pressuring Belarus to join new offensive against Ukraine or NATO

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 15 that Kyiv has evidence of Russian efforts to persuade Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko to join new offensive operations, potentially targeting Ukraine's Chernihiv-Kyiv direction or a NATO member state. Zelensky said Ukraine possesses details of the Russia-Belarus discussions and has instructed its defense forces to prepare a response plan. Belarus has allowed Russian forces on its territory since 2022 but has not officially entered the war.

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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 15 that Kyiv has evidence of Russian efforts to persuade Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko to join new offensive operations, potentially targeting Ukraine's Chernihiv-Kyiv direction or a NATO member state. Zelensky said Ukraine possesses details of the Russia-Belarus discussions and has instructed its defense forces to prepare a response plan. Belarus has allowed Russian forces on its territory since 2022 but has not officially entered the war.

gb88

Labour NEC Approves Andy Burnham's Makerfield Byelection Bid

Labour's national executive committee has granted Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham permission to stand in the candidate selection process for the upcoming Makerfield byelection, a party spokesman said. If selected and elected, Burnham is widely expected to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the party leadership. The pound fell to a five-week low this week as traders anticipated the leadership challenge.

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Labour's national executive committee has granted Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham permission to stand in the candidate selection process for the upcoming Makerfield byelection, a party spokesman said. If selected and elected, Burnham is widely expected to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer for the party leadership. The pound fell to a five-week low this week as traders anticipated the leadership challenge.