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Global Briefing May 21

Iran Hardens Nuclear Stance as War Costs Mount

Iran's Supreme Leader ordered the country's near-weapons-grade enriched uranium kept inside Iran, breaking with a clause Trump had committed to Israel. A Congressional Research Service tally put US aircraft losses in the war at 42 worth $29 billion as Ukrainian forces claimed 400 sq km — the largest gains since Kursk — and Washington's $1.776 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund drew a Capitol Police lawsuit. Germany charged two Quds-Force operatives over a Berlin assassination plot; EasyJet booked a £552m loss; and Australia's productivity minister named rogue AI as a leading extinction risk.

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us · United States

Trump Can't End Iran War, So He Changes Subject

This was the week the Iran war stopped being a foreign-policy story for Americans and became a domestic one: inflation hit a three-year high of 4.2%, petrol is up 39% since the fighting began, and a hundred days in the average household is $750 poorer. The economy is somehow still adding jobs. But unable to end the war that is driving the prices, the president spent the week fighting on every other front instead — his own last election, naturalised citizens, China, and the spy law that briefs him each morning.

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gb · United Kingdom

Britain Runs Out of Money for Defence and Order

John Healey's resignation as defence secretary was not an ordinary reshuffle: he walked out accusing Keir Starmer and the Treasury of refusing to pay for Britain's defence at the most dangerous moment since the Cold War, the week the entire fleet of attack submarines sat in dock. And as the state struggled to fund the things that keep a country safe abroad, it was visibly losing its grip on order at home — the Henry Nowak murder, riots in Belfast, a stabbing in a Manchester school. A government is meant to be able to do both. This one, this week, could do neither.

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fr · France

Lyhanna Murder Puts French State on Trial

The killing of 11-year-old Lyhanna did what no ordinary political crisis had managed: it put the French state itself in the dock. Her suspected killer had been accused of raping a 10-year-old the previous August and was never questioned. More than 60,000 people marched; the justice minister apologised and ordered a review of 70,000 abuse cases while refusing to resign; the far right demanded his head. Abroad, France was helping lead the diplomacy to end the war in Ukraine. At home, it could not protect a child it had been warned about.

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de · Germany

Merz Bets Germany's Future on Autonomy as US Pulls 5,000 Troops

Friedrich Merz has made his choice: a Germany less dependent on an America it no longer trusts. This week he absorbed the loss of 5,000 US troops pulled out over his criticism of the Iran war, killed the €100bn FCAS fighter jet with France, and offered Ukraine a seat inside the EU. It is a coherent bet on strategic autonomy. The catch is that the costs are arriving at home — a suspected extremist arson that blacked out 40,000 homes, and a record 85,837 politically motivated crimes — before the autonomy does.

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ua · Ukraine

Ukraine Offers to Freeze War by Escalating Strikes

Ukraine spent the week doing two things that only look contradictory: offering to freeze the war and fighting it harder than ever. Zelenskyy signalled he would accept halting the conflict along the current front line, and Europe lined up behind him. At the same time his long-range drones set Russia's fuel system alight, spreading petrol shortages to 25 regions. The escalation is not at odds with the peace offer — it is what gives the offer its weight. Whether Moscow ever picks it up depends less on the talks than on how dry Russia's pumps run.

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tr · Turkey

Erdoğan Declares Turkey a 'Playmaker' at Security Conference

Erdoğan spent the week looking indispensable to the world — mediating between Washington and Tehran, branding Turkey a regional 'playmaker', and savaging Netanyahu over Gaza. It is real influence, and it has a domestic use. The more the West needs Ankara, the freer his hand at home, where he has jailed his strongest rival and hundreds of opposition officials and will host NATO's leaders next month behind 40,000 security personnel. The same assertiveness that makes Turkey useful to Washington also had its jets harassing European defence ministers off Cyprus.

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Day in Review

All Events

Every other event tracked today, with a one-line preview. Click Show summary to read more.

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ua97

Ukraine claims 400 sq km of southern territory and most of Kupiansk since winter, largest gains since Kursk

Ukrainian counterattacks have retaken more than 400 square kilometres in southern Ukraine since winter, recaptured most of the eastern city of Kupiansk, and seized settlements in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast since late April, according to a 20 May Institute for the Study of War assessment. Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi told the defence outlet Militarnyi in a 15 May interview that, as of 14 May, the count of Ukrainian offensive actions exceeded Russian ones — a shift Ukrainian officials are pairing with intensified deep-strike drone operations. The advances are the largest Ukrainian territorial gains since Kyiv's incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast in August 2024.

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Ukrainian counterattacks have retaken more than 400 square kilometres in southern Ukraine since winter, recaptured most of the eastern city of Kupiansk, and seized settlements in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast since late April, according to a 20 May Institute for the Study of War assessment. Commander-in-Chief Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi told the defence outlet Militarnyi in a 15 May interview that, as of 14 May, the count of Ukrainian offensive actions exceeded Russian ones — a shift Ukrainian officials are pairing with intensified deep-strike drone operations. The advances are the largest Ukrainian territorial gains since Kyiv's incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast in August 2024.

us95

DOJ creates $1.776 billion 'anti-weaponization' fund for Trump allies; bipartisan backlash, Capitol Police lawsuit

Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced a $1.776 billion "anti-weaponization" compensation fund Monday as part of a settlement in President Trump's $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS over a leak of his tax returns, drawing immediate bipartisan opposition over its scope, its likely beneficiaries, and the absence of congressional authorisation. Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn and Metropolitan Police Officer Daniel Hodges sued Wednesday to block the fund, calling it "the most brazen act of presidential corruption this century"; Senators Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) demanded congressional review, and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) said House Republicans will "try to kill" it. Money will flow from the Treasury Judgment Fund — the dollar figure marks the year of American independence — until December 1, 2028.

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Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche announced a $1.776 billion "anti-weaponization" compensation fund Monday as part of a settlement in President Trump's $10 billion lawsuit against the IRS over a leak of his tax returns, drawing immediate bipartisan opposition over its scope, its likely beneficiaries, and the absence of congressional authorisation. Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn and Metropolitan Police Officer Daniel Hodges sued Wednesday to block the fund, calling it "the most brazen act of presidential corruption this century"; Senators Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) demanded congressional review, and Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) said House Republicans will "try to kill" it. Money will flow from the Treasury Judgment Fund — the dollar figure marks the year of American independence — until December 1, 2028.

ua95

Ukrainian drones strike Russian FSB headquarters in occupied Kherson, Zelensky says 100 casualties

Ukrainian drones struck a Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) headquarters in the occupied village of Henicheska Hirka in Kherson region on May 21, 2026, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported. The attack, carried out by the SBU's Special Operations Center 'A', also destroyed a Pantsir-S1 air defense system. Zelensky said Russian losses amounted to around 100 killed and wounded, a figure not independently verified.

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Ukrainian drones struck a Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) headquarters in the occupied village of Henicheska Hirka in Kherson region on May 21, 2026, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported. The attack, carried out by the SBU's Special Operations Center 'A', also destroyed a Pantsir-S1 air defense system. Zelensky said Russian losses amounted to around 100 killed and wounded, a figure not independently verified.

de95

German prosecutors charge two Iranian-Quds agents over Berlin plot to assassinate Volker Beck and Josef Schuster

The Federal Prosecutor in Karlsruhe charged two men on Thursday — Ali S., a Danish national arrested in Aarhus in June 2025, and Afghan national Tawab M., arrested in November 2025 — with intelligence activity and attempted murder on behalf of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, in a plot to assassinate Volker Beck, head of the German-Israeli Society, and Josef Schuster, president of the Central Council of Jews in Germany. Investigators say Ali S. was directed by the Quds Force in early 2025 to surveil the two men and two Jewish food retailers in Berlin, and in May 2025 recruited Tawab M., who agreed to procure a weapon for an unnamed third party. The indictment, filed before the Hanseatic Higher Regional Court in Hamburg, originated with a Mossad tip and lands amid heightened Iran-linked threat activity in Europe, including a 10 April arson attack on an Israeli restaurant in Munich.

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The Federal Prosecutor in Karlsruhe charged two men on Thursday — Ali S., a Danish national arrested in Aarhus in June 2025, and Afghan national Tawab M., arrested in November 2025 — with intelligence activity and attempted murder on behalf of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, in a plot to assassinate Volker Beck, head of the German-Israeli Society, and Josef Schuster, president of the Central Council of Jews in Germany. Investigators say Ali S. was directed by the Quds Force in early 2025 to surveil the two men and two Jewish food retailers in Berlin, and in May 2025 recruited Tawab M., who agreed to procure a weapon for an unnamed third party. The indictment, filed before the Hanseatic Higher Regional Court in Hamburg, originated with a Mossad tip and lands amid heightened Iran-linked threat activity in Europe, including a 10 April arson attack on an Israeli restaurant in Munich.

gb95

UK resets HS2: cost rises to £87.7-102.7 billion, London-Birmingham service delayed to 2036

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander announced a reset of the HS2 high-speed rail project in the Commons on Monday, putting the estimated cost of the London-Birmingham line at between £87.7 and £102.7 billion (€101.1-118.4 billion) and slipping service entry to 2036 from the original 2026 target. The final segment between Old Oak Common in the outer capital and Euston in central London will not open before 2040, according to the report by HS2 Ltd chief executive Mark Wild after a fifteen-month review. The project was launched in 2012 at an original budget of £37.2 billion; the Manchester and Leeds extensions were cut in 2021 and 2023, and French group Vinci, through joint ventures and its Taylor Woodrow subsidiary, builds a 90-kilometre Midlands section, Old Oak Common station and a Birmingham depot.

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Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander announced a reset of the HS2 high-speed rail project in the Commons on Monday, putting the estimated cost of the London-Birmingham line at between £87.7 and £102.7 billion (€101.1-118.4 billion) and slipping service entry to 2036 from the original 2026 target. The final segment between Old Oak Common in the outer capital and Euston in central London will not open before 2040, according to the report by HS2 Ltd chief executive Mark Wild after a fifteen-month review. The project was launched in 2012 at an original budget of £37.2 billion; the Manchester and Leeds extensions were cut in 2021 and 2023, and French group Vinci, through joint ventures and its Taylor Woodrow subsidiary, builds a 90-kilometre Midlands section, Old Oak Common station and a Birmingham depot.

tr95

Ankara appeals court voids CHP's 2023 congress, removes Özgür Özel and reinstates Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu

The 36th Civil Chamber of the Ankara Regional Court of Justice ruled unanimously on Thursday that the Republican People's Party's (CHP) 38th Ordinary Elective Congress of 4-5 November 2023 was "absolutely null and void," temporarily removing current chair Özgür Özel and his entire central party leadership and reinstating former chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the pre-congress organs until the decision becomes final. The chamber overturned a 24 October 2025 lower-court ruling that had declared the case moot, and also annulled the CHP's 8 October 2023 Istanbul Provincial Congress along with every subsequent ordinary and extraordinary congress held by Turkey's oldest party. The party has two weeks to appeal to the Court of Cassation.

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The 36th Civil Chamber of the Ankara Regional Court of Justice ruled unanimously on Thursday that the Republican People's Party's (CHP) 38th Ordinary Elective Congress of 4-5 November 2023 was "absolutely null and void," temporarily removing current chair Özgür Özel and his entire central party leadership and reinstating former chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the pre-congress organs until the decision becomes final. The chamber overturned a 24 October 2025 lower-court ruling that had declared the case moot, and also annulled the CHP's 8 October 2023 Istanbul Provincial Congress along with every subsequent ordinary and extraordinary congress held by Turkey's oldest party. The party has two weeks to appeal to the Court of Cassation.

us92

Congressional report details 42 US aircraft lost or damaged in Iran war, costing $29 billion

At least 42 U.S. military aircraft have been lost or damaged since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28, according to a May 13 Congressional Research Service report. The losses include fighter jets, helicopters and drones, with repair or replacement costs contributing to a total war cost of about $29 billion. A tenuous ceasefire has been in place since April, but a peace deal remains elusive.

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At least 42 U.S. military aircraft have been lost or damaged since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began on Feb. 28, according to a May 13 Congressional Research Service report. The losses include fighter jets, helicopters and drones, with repair or replacement costs contributing to a total war cost of about $29 billion. A tenuous ceasefire has been in place since April, but a peace deal remains elusive.

ua92

Ukraine launches 'unprecedented' security operation in five northern regions bordering Russia and Belarus

Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) and other defense forces launched enhanced security measures in five northern regions bordering Russia and Belarus, the General Staff reported on Thursday. The operation, described as 'unprecedented' in scale, includes counterintelligence and anti-sabotage activities aimed at preventing enemy infiltration. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian intelligence has evidence Russia is attempting to draw Belarus more directly into the war.

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Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) and other defense forces launched enhanced security measures in five northern regions bordering Russia and Belarus, the General Staff reported on Thursday. The operation, described as 'unprecedented' in scale, includes counterintelligence and anti-sabotage activities aimed at preventing enemy infiltration. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian intelligence has evidence Russia is attempting to draw Belarus more directly into the war.

fr90

Paris appeals court convicts Air France and Airbus of manslaughter over 2009 AF447 crash that killed 228

A Paris appeals court convicted Air France and Airbus of involuntary manslaughter Thursday over the June 1, 2009 crash of Flight AF447, ruling both companies "solely and entirely responsible" for France's worst aviation disaster, which killed all 228 aboard an Airbus A330 between Rio de Janeiro and Paris. The court imposed the statutory maximum fine of €225,000 on each, sums dismissed as token by victims' families, overturning a 2023 acquittal by a lower court. Airbus said it would appeal to the Court of Cassation.

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A Paris appeals court convicted Air France and Airbus of involuntary manslaughter Thursday over the June 1, 2009 crash of Flight AF447, ruling both companies "solely and entirely responsible" for France's worst aviation disaster, which killed all 228 aboard an Airbus A330 between Rio de Janeiro and Paris. The court imposed the statutory maximum fine of €225,000 on each, sums dismissed as token by victims' families, overturning a 2023 acquittal by a lower court. Airbus said it would appeal to the Court of Cassation.

us90

Iran's Supreme Leader orders enriched-uranium stockpile to stay in country, contradicting a key US demand

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that the country's near-weapons-grade enriched uranium must not leave Iran, two senior Iranian sources told Reuters, hardening Tehran's stance on a central US demand in continuing peace talks aimed at ending the US-Israeli war. Israeli officials say President Donald Trump assured Israel that Iran's stockpile would be sent abroad and that any peace deal must include such a clause; the White House and Iran's foreign ministry declined to comment. The two sides have narrowed some gaps, the sources said, but remain divided over the stockpile and over Tehran's demand for recognition of its right to enrichment.

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Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive that the country's near-weapons-grade enriched uranium must not leave Iran, two senior Iranian sources told Reuters, hardening Tehran's stance on a central US demand in continuing peace talks aimed at ending the US-Israeli war. Israeli officials say President Donald Trump assured Israel that Iran's stockpile would be sent abroad and that any peace deal must include such a clause; the White House and Iran's foreign ministry declined to comment. The two sides have narrowed some gaps, the sources said, but remain divided over the stockpile and over Tehran's demand for recognition of its right to enrichment.